Superpower

Superpower

Superpower describes a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position characterized by the ability to exert influence and project power on a global scale. This is done through the combined means of economic, military, technological, political, and cultural strength as well as diplomatic and soft power influence. Traditionally, superpowers are preeminent among the great powers. While a great power state is capable of exerting its influence globally, superpowers are states so influential that no significant action can be taken by the global community without first considering the positions of the superpowers on the issue.

In 1944, during World War II, the term was first applied to the British Empire, the Soviet Union, and the United States. During the Cold War, the British Empire dissolved, leaving the United States and the Soviet Union to dominate world affairs. At the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States became the world's sole superpower, a position sometimes referred to as that of a "hyperpower".

Since the late 2010s, an increasing amount of proponents have classified China as an emerging superpower, and China is often described as "the only country with enough power to jeopardize the current global order". In spite of the perceived decline of the United States, it remains a superpower primarily due to its alliances and economic influence, despite power decline and recent international reputation.

Origin

Superpower

A world map in 1945. According to William T. R. Fox, the United States (blue), the Soviet Union (red), and the British Empire (teal) were superpowers.

Prime Minister Winston Churchill, President Franklin D. Roosevelt, and General Secretary Joseph Stalin, meeting at the Yalta Conference in Crimea in February 1945, near the end of World War II

No agreed definition of what a superpower is exists and may differ between sources. However, a fundamental characteristic that is consistent with all definitions of a superpower is a nation or state that has mastered the seven dimensions of state power, namely geography, population, economy, resources, military, diplomacy, and national identity.

The term was first used to describe nations with greater than great power status as early as 1944, but only gained its specific meaning with regard to the United States and the Soviet Union after World War II. This was because the United States and the Soviet Union had proved themselves to be capable of casting great influence in global politics and military dominance. The term in its current political meaning was coined by Dutch-American geostrategist Nicholas Spykman in a series of lectures in 1943 about the potential shape of a new post-war world order. This formed the foundation for the book The Geography of the Peace, which referred primarily to the unmatched maritime global supremacy of the British Empire and the United States as essential for peace and prosperity in the world.

A year later, William T. R. Fox, an American foreign policy professor, elaborated on the concept in the book The Superpowers: The United States, Britain and the Soviet Union – Their Responsibility for Peace which spoke of the global reach of a super-empowered nation. Fox used the word superpower to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which—as the war then raging demonstrated—states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. According to him, at that moment, there were three states that were superpowers, namely the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom. The British Empire was the most extensive empire in world history and considered the foremost power, holding sway over 25% of the world's population and controlling about 25% of the Earth's total land area, while the United States and the Soviet Union grew in power before and during World War II. The UK would face serious political, financial, and colonial issues after World War II that left it unable to match Soviet or American power. Ultimately, Britain's empire would gradually dissolve over the course of the 20th century, sharply reducing its global power projection.

According to Lyman Miller, "[t]he basic components of superpower stature may be measured along four axes of power: military, economic, political, and cultural (or what political scientist Joseph Nye has termed 'soft power')".

In the opinion of Kim Richard Nossal of Queen's University in Canada, "generally, this term was used to signify a political community that occupied a continental-sized landmass; had a sizable population (relative at least to other major powers); a superordinate economic capacity, including ample indigenous supplies of food and natural resources; enjoyed a high degree of non-dependence on international intercourse; and, most importantly, had a well-developed nuclear capacity (eventually, normally defined as second strike capability)".

In the opinion of Professor Paul Dukes, "a superpower must be able to conduct a global strategy, including the possibility of destroying the world; to command vast economic potential and influence; and to present a universal ideology", although "many modifications may be made to this basic definition". According to Professor June Teufel Dreyer, "[a] superpower must be able to project its power, soft and hard, globally". In his book Superpower: Three Choices for America's Role in the World, Dr. Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, argues that a superpower is "a country that can exert enough military, political, and economic power to persuade nations in every region of the world to take important actions they would not otherwise take".

Apart from its common denotation of the foremost post-WWII states, the term superpower has colloquially been applied by some authors retrospectively to describe various preeminent ancient great empires or medieval great powers, in works such as Channel 5 (UK)'s documentary Rome: The World's First Superpower or the reference in The New Cambridge Medieval History to "the other superpower, Sasanian Persia".

During the Cold War

Superpower

This map shows two global spheres during the Cold War in 1980:   NATO member states   Other NATO and United States allies × Anti-communist guerrillas   Warsaw Pact member states   Socialist states allied with the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact   Other allies of the Soviet Union × Communist guerrillas   Socialist states not allied with the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact   Neutral nations × Other conflicts

The 1956 Suez Crisis suggested that Britain, financially weakened by two world wars, could not then pursue its foreign policy objectives on an equal footing with the new superpowers without sacrificing convertibility of its reserve currency as a central goal of policy. As the majority of World War II had been fought far from its national boundaries, the United States had not suffered the industrial destruction nor massive civilian casualties that marked the wartime situation of the countries in Europe or Asia. The war had reinforced the position of the United States as the world's largest long-term creditor nation and its principal supplier of goods; moreover, it had built up a strong industrial and technological infrastructure that had greatly advanced its military strength into a primary position on the global stage. Despite attempts to create multinational coalitions or legislative bodies (such as the United Nations), it became increasingly clear that the superpowers had very different visions about what the post-war world ought to look like and after the withdrawal of British aid to Greece in 1947, the United States took the lead in containing Soviet expansion in the Cold War.

The two countries opposed each other ideologically, politically, militarily, and economically. The Soviet Union promoted the ideology of Marxism–Leninism, planned economy, and a one-party state while the United States promoted the ideologies of liberal democracy and the free market in a capitalist market economy. This was reflected in the Warsaw Pact and NATO military alliances, respectively, as most of Europe became aligned with either the United States or the Soviet Union. These alliances implied that these two nations were part of an emerging bipolar world, in contrast with a previously multipolar world.

The idea that the Cold War period revolved around only two blocs, or even only two nations, has been challenged by some scholars in the post–Cold War era, who have noted that the bipolar world only exists if one ignores all of the various movements and conflicts that occurred without influence from either of the two superpowers. Additionally, much of the conflict between the superpowers was fought in proxy wars, which more often than not involved issues more complex than the standard Cold War oppositions.

After the Soviet Union disintegrated in the early 1990s, the term "hyperpower" began to be applied to the United States as the sole remaining superpower of the Cold War era. This term, popularized by French foreign minister Hubert Védrine in the late 1990s, is controversial and the validity of classifying the United States in this way is disputed. One notable opponent to this theory is Samuel P. Huntington, who rejects this theory in favor of a multipolar balance of power. Other international relations theorists such as Henry Kissinger theorize that because the threat of the Soviet Union no longer exists to formerly American-dominated regions such as Western Europe and Japan, American influence is only declining since the end of the Cold War because such regions no longer need protection or have necessarily similar foreign policies as the United States.

After the Cold War

Superpower

Countries with military bases and facilities of the present sole superpower – the United States

The New York Stock Exchange trading floor. Economic power such as a large nominal GDP and a world reserve currency are important factors in the projection of hard power.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 which ended the Cold War, the post–Cold War world has in the past been considered by some to be a unipolar world, with the United States as the world's sole remaining superpower. In 1999, political scientist and author Samuel P. Huntington wrote: "The United States, of course, is the sole state with preeminence in every domain of power – economic, military, diplomatic, ideological, technological, and cultural – with the reach and capabilities to promote its interests in virtually every part of the world". However, Huntington rejected the claim that the world was unipolar, arguing: "There is now only one superpower. But that does not mean that the world is unipolar", describing it instead as "a strange hybrid, a uni-multipolar system with one superpower and several major powers". He further wrote that "Washington is blind to the fact that it no longer enjoys the dominance it had at the end of the Cold War. It must relearn the game of international politics as a major power, not a superpower, and make compromises".

Experts argue that this older single-superpower assessment of global politics is too simplified, in part because of the difficulty in classifying the European Union at its current stage of development. Others argue that the notion of a superpower is outdated, considering complex global economic interdependencies and propose that the world is multipolar.

A 2012 report by the National Intelligence Council predicted that the United States superpower status will have eroded to merely being first among equals by 2030, but that it would remain highest among the world's most powerful countries because of its influence in many different fields and global connections that the great regional powers of the time would not match. Additionally, some experts have suggested the possibility of the United States losing its superpower status completely in the future, citing speculation of its decline in power relative to the rest of the world, economic hardships, a declining dollar, Cold War allies becoming less dependent on the United States, and the emergence of future powers around the world.

According to a RAND Corporation paper by American diplomat James Dobbins, Professor Howard J. Shatz, and policy analyst Ali Wyne, Russia in the breakdown of a disintegrating unipolar world order, while not a peer competitor to the United States, would still remain a player and a potential rogue state that would undermine global affairs. The West could contain Russia with methods like those employed during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, though this would be tested by Russia's overt and covert efforts to destabilize Western alliances and political systems. On the other hand, China is a peer competitor to the United States that cannot be contained, and will be a far more challenging entity for the West to confront. The authors state that China's military dominance in the Asia-Pacific is already eroding American influence at a rapid pace, and the costs for the US to defend its interests there will continue to rise. Moreover, China's economic influence has already broken out of its regional confines long ago and is on track to directly contest the US role as the center for economic trade and commerce.

Potential superpowers

Superpower

The term potential superpowers has been applied by scholars and other qualified commentators to the possibility of several political entities achieving superpower status.

1980s and 1990s

In the 1980s, some commentators thought Japan would become a superpower due to its large GDP and high economic growth at the time. However, Japan's economy crashed in 1991, creating a long period of economic slump in the country which has become known as the Lost Decades.

21st century

Extant superpower   United States Potential superpowers—supported in varying degrees by academics   China   European Union   Russia   India

Due to their large markets, growing military strength, economic potential, and influence in international affairs, China, the European Union, and India are among the political entities most cited as having the potential of achieving superpower status in the 21st century, with China often seen as the only de facto or near-superpower that rivals the United States. In 2013, some political scientists and other commentators have suggested that such countries might simply be emerging powers, as opposed to potential superpowers, In 2020, the European Union has been called a "regulatory superpower" due to the Brussels effect.

The classification of China as a superpower has been subject of great academic and geopolitical debate. Debate centers around recognizing it as either a de facto superpower or a superpower contender. Since a 2012 Cornell University - Lund Critical Debate that concluded "China is not yet a superpower", an increasing amount of proponents have highlighted China's modern military, regional influence, cultural export, rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, economic and manufacturing volume as signs of global dominance in the 2020s. However, opponent's suggest that domestic challenges still persist; such as an ageing and shrinking population, lack of skilled immigration, alongside international concerns of its soft power status due to human rights issues, lack of hard power capabilities through a global military alliance system, and the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade.

Increasing doubts have emerged in 2022 around the potential of Russia to gain superpower status given its declining economy, severe military underperformance during the invasion of Ukraine, and its loss of influence in Central Asia, a region once dominated by Moscow for centuries.

Superpower collapse

Soviet Union

Dramatic changes occurred in the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc during the 1980s and early 1990s, with perestroika and glasnost, the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, and finally the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991. As early as 1970, Andrei Amalrik had made predictions of Soviet collapse, and Emmanuel Todd made a similar prediction in 1976. Due to Russia's capabilities of conventional warfare during the Russian invasion of Ukraine Russia was compared to a "Potemkin Superpower" by Paul Krugman. Russia is a nuclear-weapon state.

British Empire

The Suez Crisis of 1956 is considered by some commentators to be the beginning of the end of Britain's period as a superpower, but other commentators have pointed earlier such as the postwar Age of Austerity, the Anglo-American loan of 1946, the Winter of 1946–47, and the independence of British India as other key points in Britain's decline and loss of superpower status.

The Suez Crisis in particular is regarded by historians to be a political and diplomatic disaster for the British Empire, as it led to large-scale international condemnation, including extensive pressure from the United States and Soviet Union. This forced the British and the French to withdraw in embarrassment and cemented the increasingly-bipolar Cold War politics between the Soviet Union and United States. In the 1960s, the movement for decolonization reached its peak, with remaining imperial holdings achieving independence, accelerating the transition from the British Empire to the Commonwealth of Nations. As the Empire continued to crumble, the home islands of the United Kingdom later experienced deindustrialization throughout the 1970s, coupled with high inflation and industrial unrest that unraveled the postwar consensus. This led to some economists to refer to Britain as the Sick Man of Europe. In 1976, the United Kingdom had to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which it had previously helped create, receiving funding of $3.9 billion, the largest-ever loan to be requested up until that point. In 1979, the country suffered major widespread strikes known as the Winter of Discontent. All these factors were seen by academics, economists and politicians as symbolising Britain's postwar decline. Lastly, the Handover of Hong Kong to China in July 1997 was seen by experts as the definitive end of the British Empire.

Nevertheless, the United Kingdom today has retained global soft power in the 21st century. Its capital city, London, continues to be regarded as one of the pre-eminent cities in the world, being ranked as a global city by the Mori Foundation. In 2022, the United Kingdom was ranked the foremost European country in terms of soft power by Brand Finance. The United Kingdom also retains a formidable military and is one of the recognized nuclear-weapons states.

United States

In After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order (2001), French sociologist Emmanuel Todd predicts the eventual decline and fall of the United States as a superpower. "After years of being perceived as a problem-solver, the US itself has now become a problem for the rest of the world." Since the 2010s, as a result of asymmetric polarization within the United States, as well as globally perceived U.S. foreign policy failures, and China's growing influence around the world, some academics and geopolitical experts have argued that the United States may already be experiencing a decay in its soft power around the world.

Superpower disengagement

Superpower

Superpower disengagement is a foreign policy option whereby the most powerful nations, the superpowers, reduce their interventions in an area. Such disengagement could be multilateral among superpowers or lesser powers, or bilateral between two superpowers, or unilateral. It could mean an end to either direct or indirect interventions. For instance, disengagement could mean that the superpowers remove their support of proxies in proxy wars to de-escalate a superpower conflict back to a local problem based on local disputes. Disengagement can create buffers between superpowers that might prevent conflicts or reduce the intensity of conflicts.

The term usually refers to various policy proposals during the Cold War which attempted to defuse tensions between the Soviet Union and the United States, largely because of the risk of any superpower conflict to escalate to nuclear war. Examples of one-sided disengagement include when Joseph Stalin decided to end Soviet support for the communist guerrillas in Greece during the Greek Civil War, and when Richard Nixon withdrew US troops from Vietnam in the early 1970s.

The more important candidates for disengagement were where Soviet and US forces faced each other directly such as in Germany and Austria. The Austrian State Treaty is an example of formal, multilateral, superpower disengagement which left Austria as neutral for the duration of the Cold War, with Austria staying out of the Warsaw Pact, NATO, and the European Economic Community. The 1952 Stalin Note is perhaps the most controversial proposal of superpower disengagement from Germany.

Proposed early superpowers

Superpower

These are proposed examples of ancient or historical superpowers, taking into account that the knowledge of what the "known world" comprised was extremely limited in past eras (for example, Europeans became aware of the existence of the Americas and Australia only after the Age of Discovery, which began in the late 15th century, and prior to this era, they had a very limited knowledge about East Asia as well).

Archaic globalization (before 1500)

Many of the nations of this historical period were never superpowers, however they were regional powers with influence in their respective regions.

Note: Does not take into account city-states and stateless nomadic peoples.

Fertile Crescent in the Early Bronze Age

In the early history of both regions contact between these civilization was very limited, long distance trade definitely occurred but primarily through long chains of intermediaries rather than directly.

• Akkadian Empire (isolated civilization; first empire recorded in history) • Old Kingdom of Egypt (isolated civilization)

Fertile Crescent in the Middle Bronze Age

Regular contact between Egypt, Mesopotamia and Anatolia dates from this period. Mitanni was an important intermediary in the trade between these civilizations.

• Old Assyrian Empire • Old Babylonian Empire • Middle Kingdom of Egypt • Kingdom of Mitanni • Hittite Empire

Fertile Crescent and Mediterranean Sea in the Late Bronze Age

Known by the Minoans and Mycenaean Greeks:

• New Kingdom of Egypt • Hittite Empire

Indian subcontinent

Contact with other civilizations was very limited; long distance trade with Mesopotamia definitely occurred but primarily through long chains of intermediaries rather than directly.

• Indus Valley Civilisation (isolated civilization, no consensus on whether it was a unified state or not)

East Asia

• Shang Kingdom (isolated civilization) • Zhou Kingdom (isolated civilization)

Mesoamerica

• Olmec civilization (isolated civilization, little information about their type of government)

Andes

• Caral–Supe civilization (isolated civilization, little information about their type of government)

Indian subcontinent

• Magadha Empire (one of the 16 Mahajanapadas, isolated civilizations before contact with the Persians)

Known world by the ancient Greeks before the Hellenistic period

• Kushite Empire (Twenty-fifth Dynasty of Egypt) • Neo-Assyrian Empire • Neo-Babylonian Empire • Achaemenid Empire (Persia) • Macedonian Empire

Known world by the ancient Romans in their republican era

The Drachma, minted by many states, most notably in the Ptolemaic Egypt was the reserve currency in the Mediterranean and Near East

• Carthaginian Republic • Roman Republic • Ptolemaic Egypt • Seleucid Empire • Parthian Empire (Persia) • Maurya Empire (not fully known by Europeans, that only known frontier regions and later northern regions)

Known world by the ancient Romans in their imperial era

Main reserve currency in the Mediterranean and Near East: Roman Denarius, later replaced by the Roman Solidus.

• Roman Empire • Parthian Empire (Persia) • Sasanid Empire (Persia) • Aksumite Empire • Gupta Empire

East Asia

Not fully known outside East Asia. The West knew of these powers because of the Silk Road, although little information reached them.

• Han Empire • Xiongnu Empire

Mesoamerica

Isolated civilizations in relation to the Afro-Eurasia.

• Olmec civilization (little information about their type of government) • Zapotec civilization (little information about their type of government in this time period) • Teotihuacán (little information about their type of government)

Andes

Isolated civilization in relation to Afro-Eurasia.

• Chavín Civilization (little information about their type of government)

Known world by Medieval Europeans and Middle Easterners

Main reserve currency in the Mediterranean and Near East: Roman Solidus, later replaced by the Dinar, minted by the Caliphates.

• Eastern Roman Empire • Carolingian Empire (Arabs, Persians, East Asians used "Franks" as a generic name for Europeans. Due to feudalism, Western European powers with influence outside Europe did not emerge in the remainder of the Middle Ages) • The Caliphates: Rashidun Caliphate, Umayyad Caliphate, Fatimid Caliphate and Abbasid Caliphate • Sultanate of Mogadishu (Known by Arabs, Europeans and East Asians) • Persia (Sassanid Empire, Ilkhanate and the Timurid Empire) (known by Europeans, Indians and East Asians) • Ethiopian Empire (known by the Arabs, Indians, Europeans and later by the Chinese) • Indian empires: Chola Empire and Delhi Sultanate • Mongol Empire (known by Eurasians) • Chinese empires: Tang Empire (known by East Asians, Indians and Middle Easterners but not by Europeans in detailed way), Song Empire (known by the Europeans in its very last years), Yuan Empire, Ming Empire

Sub-Saharan Africa

During the Middle Ages the region was known by Arab merchants. Europeans were aware that the region existed (to the point that Mansa Musa was mentioned in the Catalan Atlas), but little information about the place reached Europe.

• Ghana Empire (known by Arabs) • Mali Empire (known by Arabs and Europeans) • Songhai Empire (known by Arabs) • Kingdom of Zimbabwe and Kingdom of Mutapa (known by Arabs and Asians. Contact with Europeans only after 1500)

Mesoamerica

Isolated civilization in relation to the Afro-Eurasia.

• Toltec Empire • Purépecha Empire • Aztec Empire

South America

Isolated civilizations in relation to the Afro-Eurasia.

• Wari Empire • Tiwanaku Empire • Inca Empire

Proto-globalization (1500–1800)

The Age of Discovery brought a broad change in globalization, being the first period in which previously isolated parts of the world became connected to form the world system, and the first colonial empires of the early modern age emerged, such as the Portuguese, Spanish, Dutch and French empires. The British Empire, after its Glorious Revolution in 1688 and its pioneering role in the industrialization process in the 18th century would lead to its global hegemony in the 19th century and early 20th century (before the World War I).

The contact between distant civilizations was highly facilitated as well as the mapping of a large part of the planet, with people in this historical period having a better understanding of the global map of the Planet Earth.

• Portuguese Empire (main reserve currency from c.1450 to 1530: Portuguese real) • Spanish Empire (main reserve currency from 1530 to 1640: Spanish dollar) • Dutch Empire (main reserve currency from 1640 to 1720: Dutch guilder) • French colonial Empire (main reserve currency from 1720 to 1815: Livre tournois and French franc) • British Empire • Ottoman Empire • Habsburg empire during the reign of Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor

Modern globalization (1800–1945)

• British Empire (main reserve currency from 1815 to 1920: Pound sterling) • First French Empire of Napoleon I and Second French Colonial Empire

According to historical statistics and research from the OECD, until the early modern period, Western Europe, China, and India accounted for roughly two thirds of the world's GDP.