Opinion polling for the next German federal election
In the run-up to the next German federal election following the 23 February 2025 election, which needs to take place on or before 25 March 2029, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed below.
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Opinion polling for the next German federal election
In the run-up to the next German federal election following the 23 February 2025 election, which needs to take place on or before 25 March 2029, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed below.
Electoral threshold of 5%
Opinion polling for the next German federal election
Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to parties that either receive at least 5 percent of proportional votes (called "second votes" in Germany as the option appears second on the ballot, after the constituency or "first vote"), or win at least three constituencies. In the 2021 German federal election, Die Linke (The Left) won 3 constituencies and thus received proportional representation despite receiving just 4.9% of second votes. In 2022, this three constituency provision was abolished but was later reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court. In addition to Die Linke, this also benefits the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), which competes only in Bavaria, and therefore has often been close to missing the 5% nationwide despite regularly winning all constituencies in the state. As the CDU does not run in Bavaria, only a few polls show the CDU and CSU as separate parties, with most combining the CDU/CSU as the Union. The two parties always coalition together in the federal level and agree on the vast majority of issues.
In the 2025 German federal election, both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly failed to meet the 5% electoral threshold to gain parliamentary representation. Both of these parties are present in a few state parliaments and even in state governments, and are still regularly polled despite not being present in the 21st Bundestag. Some polls include the Free Voters (FW), a general name used by unaffiliated groups in local elections, which was adopted by a party that is present in three state parliaments (Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Saxony) and one state government coalition (Bavaria). Other parties are categorised as "others".
Reliability of pollsters
Opinion polling for the next German federal election
The poll aggregator Europe Elects provides a list of past pollster accuracy and conflict of interest on its website. The organization includes Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix, Trend research, and pmg - policy matters in its databases and highlights their reliability and transparency. All of them are part of professional pollster associations. Civey is excluded and their lack of methodological rigour referenced. Below-listed Wahlkreisprognose and America-based Democracy Institute are excluded from Europe Elects's coverage. The poll aggregator points out that they have no membership in a professional association.
Poll results
Graphical summary
Opinion polling for the 2029 German federal election using Local regression (LOESS) of polls conducted.
CDU and CSU
Some polls show CDU (not present in Bavaria) and CSU (only in Bavaria) separately without adding them up.
By state
Bavaria
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Fieldwork date</th><th>Sample size</th><th>CSU</th><th>AfD</th><th>Grüne</th><th>SPD</th><th>Linke</th><th>Free Voters</th><th>FDP</th><th>BSW</th><th>Others</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Forsa</td><td>1–10 Sep 2025</td><td>1,012</td><td>33</td><td>24</td><td>13</td><td>9</td><td>8</td><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>2</td><td>5</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>2025 federal election</td><td>23 Feb 2025</td><td>–</td><td>37.2</td><td>19.0</td><td>12.0</td><td>11.5</td><td>5.7</td><td>4.3</td><td>4.2</td><td>3.1</td><td>2.9</td><td>18.2</td></tr></tbody></table>
Chancellor polling
Merz vs. Weidel vs. Klingbeil
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Fieldwork date</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Merz Union</th><th>Weidel AfD</th><th>Klingbeil SPD</th><th>None</th><th>Don't know</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>INSA</td><td>18–19 Dec 2025</td><td>1,001</td><td>20</td><td>26</td><td>12</td><td>31</td><td>11</td></tr></tbody></table>
Merz vs. Weidel
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Fieldwork date</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Merz Union</th><th>Weidel AfD</th><th>None</th><th>Don't know</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>INSA</td><td>30 Oct – 3 Nov 2025</td><td>2,002</td><td>27</td><td>29</td><td>35</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>19–22 Sep 2025</td><td>2,002</td><td>27</td><td>29</td><td>34</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>27–30 Jun 2025</td><td>2,008</td><td>36</td><td>27</td><td>31</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>11–14 Apr 2025</td><td>2,002</td><td>34</td><td>26</td><td>33</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>28–31 Mar 2025</td><td>2,006</td><td>35</td><td>27</td><td>33</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>21–24 Mar 2025</td><td>2,004</td><td>37</td><td>28</td><td>29</td><td>6</td></tr></tbody></table>
Preferred coalition
Opinion polling for the next German federal election
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Fieldwork date</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Union AfD</th><th>Union SPD</th><th>Union SPD Grüne</th><th>SPD Grüne Linke</th><th>Union SPD Linke</th><th>Union</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>INSA</td><td>13–16 Mar 2026</td><td>2,002</td><td>25</td><td>–</td><td>24</td><td>–</td><td>14</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>19–20 Feb 2026</td><td>1,003</td><td>24</td><td>22</td><td>–</td><td>20</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>27–30 Jun 2025</td><td>2,008</td><td>24</td><td>–</td><td>13</td><td>13</td><td>9</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>11–14 Apr 2025</td><td>2,002</td><td>26</td><td>–</td><td>19</td><td>–</td><td>15</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>4–7 Apr 2025</td><td>2,008</td><td>27</td><td>–</td><td>19</td><td>–</td><td>14</td><td>10</td></tr></tbody></table>
Constituency projections
Opinion polling for the next German federal election
With the 2023 electoral reform fixing the number of seats to 630, constituency seats are only awarded if covered by the votes cast for the party in that state. As such, the number of constituency seats won by a party may be lower than that party's number of constituency pluralities. In the 2025 German federal election, 23 constituency winners were left out.
Constituency pluralities
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Release date</th><th>Union</th><th>AfD</th><th>SPD</th><th>Grüne</th><th>Linke</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Mar 2026</td><td>179</td><td>49</td><td>49</td><td>15</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Feb 2026</td><td>176</td><td>50</td><td>51</td><td>15</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Jan 2026</td><td>180</td><td>52</td><td>45</td><td>15</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Dec 2025</td><td>182</td><td>52</td><td>43</td><td>15</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Nov 2025</td><td>181</td><td>52</td><td>45</td><td>14</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Oct 2025</td><td>183</td><td>52</td><td>43</td><td>13</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Sep 2025</td><td>186</td><td>49</td><td>43</td><td>14</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>15 Sep 2025</td><td>178</td><td>61</td><td>39</td><td>13</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>8 Sep 2025</td><td>172</td><td>73</td><td>34</td><td>12</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>1 Sep 2025</td><td>172</td><td>68</td><td>39</td><td>12</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>25 Aug 2025</td><td>159</td><td>73</td><td>48</td><td>12</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>18 Aug 2025</td><td>177</td><td>61</td><td>41</td><td>12</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Aug 2025</td><td>188</td><td>49</td><td>41</td><td>14</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>11 Aug 2025</td><td>197</td><td>55</td><td>29</td><td>10</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>4 Aug 2025</td><td>194</td><td>54</td><td>36</td><td>10</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>28 Jul 2025</td><td>195</td><td>51</td><td>38</td><td>9</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>21 Jul 2025</td><td>204</td><td>53</td><td>26</td><td>10</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Jul 2025</td><td>197</td><td>48</td><td>36</td><td>11</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>14 Jul 2025</td><td>191</td><td>49</td><td>40</td><td>13</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>7 Jul 2025</td><td>205</td><td>50</td><td>26</td><td>13</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>30 Jun 2025</td><td>190</td><td>46</td><td>43</td><td>14</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>23 Jun 2025</td><td>186</td><td>47</td><td>47</td><td>13</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>16 Jun 2025</td><td>184</td><td>48</td><td>46</td><td>16</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Jun 2025</td><td>189</td><td>49</td><td>41</td><td>13</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>10 Jun 2025</td><td>195</td><td>47</td><td>44</td><td>10</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>2 Jun 2025</td><td>182</td><td>52</td><td>52</td><td>9</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>26 May 2025</td><td>174</td><td>54</td><td>52</td><td>13</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>19 May 2025</td><td>180</td><td>55</td><td>44</td><td>15</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 May 2025</td><td>181</td><td>51</td><td>46</td><td>13</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>12 May 2025</td><td>160</td><td>61</td><td>60</td><td>14</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>5 May 2025</td><td>157</td><td>66</td><td>57</td><td>14</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>28 Apr 2025</td><td>158</td><td>69</td><td>51</td><td>16</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>22 Apr 2025</td><td>174</td><td>58</td><td>48</td><td>14</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Apr 2025</td><td>181</td><td>50</td><td>47</td><td>14</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>14 Apr 2025</td><td>165</td><td>50</td><td>59</td><td>20</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>7 Apr 2025</td><td>160</td><td>65</td><td>56</td><td>13</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>31 Mar 2025</td><td>178</td><td>48</td><td>51</td><td>16</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>24 Mar 2025</td><td>192</td><td>52</td><td>35</td><td>12</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>17 Mar 2025</td><td>199</td><td>44</td><td>40</td><td>7</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Mar 2025</td><td>192</td><td>45</td><td>43</td><td>11</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>INSA</td><td>10 Mar 2025</td><td>189</td><td>41</td><td>55</td><td>8</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>2025 federal election</td><td>23 Feb 2025</td><td>190</td><td>46</td><td>45</td><td>12</td><td>6</td></tr></tbody></table>
By probability
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Release date</th><th>Union</th><th>AfD</th><th>SPD</th><th>Grüne</th><th>Linke</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Safe</td><td>Likely</td><td>Lean</td><td>Safe</td><td>Likely</td><td>Lean</td><td>Safe</td><td>Likely</td><td>Lean</td><td>Safe</td><td>Likely</td><td>Lean</td><td>Safe</td><td>Likely</td><td>Lean</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Mar 2026</td><td>45</td><td>84</td><td>50</td><td>34</td><td>9</td><td>6</td><td>3</td><td>16</td><td>30</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>12</td><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Feb 2026</td><td>35</td><td>89</td><td>52</td><td>37</td><td>7</td><td>6</td><td>3</td><td>15</td><td>33</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>12</td><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Jan 2026</td><td>32</td><td>92</td><td>56</td><td>38</td><td>6</td><td>8</td><td>0</td><td>15</td><td>30</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>12</td><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Dec 2025</td><td>34</td><td>94</td><td>54</td><td>37</td><td>7</td><td>8</td><td>0</td><td>15</td><td>28</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>12</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Nov 2025</td><td>34</td><td>96</td><td>51</td><td>38</td><td>6</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>14</td><td>30</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>11</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Oct 2025</td><td>34</td><td>97</td><td>52</td><td>38</td><td>6</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>14</td><td>28</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>10</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Sep 2025</td><td>51</td><td>92</td><td>43</td><td>34</td><td>9</td><td>6</td><td>3</td><td>13</td><td>27</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>11</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Aug 2025</td><td>58</td><td>85</td><td>45</td><td>33</td><td>10</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>14</td><td>26</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>11</td><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Jul 2025</td><td>80</td><td>78</td><td>39</td><td>31</td><td>11</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>13</td><td>22</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>8</td><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Jun 2025</td><td>57</td><td>87</td><td>45</td><td>33</td><td>10</td><td>6</td><td>2</td><td>14</td><td>25</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>10</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 May 2025</td><td>38</td><td>95</td><td>48</td><td>35</td><td>9</td><td>7</td><td>2</td><td>13</td><td>31</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>10</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Apr 2025</td><td>41</td><td>93</td><td>47</td><td>35</td><td>9</td><td>6</td><td>3</td><td>13</td><td>31</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>11</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Mar 2025</td><td>82</td><td>75</td><td>35</td><td>31</td><td>11</td><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>12</td><td>28</td><td>0</td><td>2</td><td>9</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>2025 federal election</td><td>23 Feb 2025</td><td>190</td><td>46</td><td>45</td><td>12</td><td>6</td></tr></tbody></table>
Second place
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Release date</th><th>SPD</th><th>Union</th><th>AfD</th><th>Grüne</th><th>Linke</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Mar 2026</td><td>83</td><td>81</td><td>111</td><td>20</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Feb 2026</td><td>76</td><td>82</td><td>117</td><td>20</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Jan 2026</td><td>67</td><td>77</td><td>131</td><td>20</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Dec 2025</td><td>70</td><td>77</td><td>129</td><td>19</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Nov 2025</td><td>70</td><td>77</td><td>128</td><td>20</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Oct 2025</td><td>71</td><td>75</td><td>129</td><td>21</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Sep 2025</td><td>79</td><td>78</td><td>117</td><td>21</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Aug 2025</td><td>80</td><td>80</td><td>114</td><td>21</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Jul 2025</td><td>89</td><td>78</td><td>104</td><td>24</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Jun 2025</td><td>81</td><td>79</td><td>113</td><td>22</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 May 2025</td><td>72</td><td>81</td><td>122</td><td>21</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Apr 2025</td><td>75</td><td>82</td><td>117</td><td>21</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>election.de</td><td>15 Mar 2025</td><td>94</td><td>82</td><td>96</td><td>24</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>2025 federal election</td><td>23 Feb 2025</td><td>111</td><td>82</td><td>79</td><td>22</td><td>5</td></tr></tbody></table>