Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election
This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2025 Canadian federal election leading up to the 46th Canadian federal election.
Article
Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election
This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2025 Canadian federal election leading up to the 46th Canadian federal election.
National polls
Graphical summary
Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election
Voting intention with different Conservative leader
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Last date of polling</th><th>Link</th><th>Hypothetical Conservative Leader</th><th>LPC</th><th>CPC</th><th>BQ</th><th>NDP</th><th>GPC</th><th>PPC</th><th>Others</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Polling method</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Abacus Data</td><td>November 8, 2025</td><td></td><td>Melissa Lantsman</td><td>40</td><td>23</td><td>8</td><td>9</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>3</td><td>± 1.8 pp</td><td>1,244</td><td>Online</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>Jamil Jivani</td><td>37</td><td>24</td><td>8</td><td>8</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>3</td><td>± 1.8 pp</td><td>1,330</td><td>Online</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>Mark Mulroney</td><td>36</td><td>27</td><td>7</td><td>9</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>3</td><td>± 1.8 pp</td><td>1,328</td><td>Online</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>Tim Houston</td><td>37</td><td>27</td><td>8</td><td>9</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>4</td><td>± 1.8 pp</td><td>1,328</td><td>Online</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>Michelle Rempel Garner</td><td>39</td><td>28</td><td>6</td><td>8</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>3</td><td>± 1.8 pp</td><td>1,271</td><td>Online</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>Caroline Mulroney</td><td>36</td><td>29</td><td>8</td><td>9</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>3</td><td>± 1.8 pp</td><td>1,291</td><td>Online</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>Jason Kenney</td><td>38</td><td>30</td><td>5</td><td>10</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>4</td><td>± 1.8 pp</td><td>1,258</td><td>Online</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>Doug Ford</td><td>34</td><td>31</td><td>7</td><td>10</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>5</td><td>± 1.8 pp</td><td>1,284</td><td>Online</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Stephen Harper</td><td>39</td><td>34</td><td>6</td><td>7</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>1</td><td>± 1.8 pp</td><td>1,310</td><td>Online</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>2025 election</td><td>April 28, 2025</td><td></td><td>Pierre Poilievre</td><td>43.8</td><td>41.8</td><td>6.3</td><td>6.3</td><td>1.2</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.4</td><td>—N/a</td><td>19,597,674</td><td>—N/a</td><td>2.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
Regional polls
Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election
A number of polling firms survey federal voting intentions on a regional or provincial level. Note that this section displays results from stand-alone polls, not subsets of national polls.
Quebec
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Last date of polling</th><th>Link</th><th>LPC</th><th>CPC</th><th>BQ</th><th>NDP</th><th>GPC</th><th>PPC</th><th>Others</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Polling method</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Léger</td><td>November 10, 2025</td><td></td><td>39</td><td>25</td><td>28</td><td>5</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>—N/a</td><td>± 3.1 pp</td><td>1,031</td><td>Online</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>Léger</td><td>September 15, 2025</td><td></td><td>42</td><td>21</td><td>30</td><td>4</td><td>3</td><td>—N/a</td><td>1</td><td>± 3.02 pp</td><td>1,053</td><td>Online</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>Léger</td><td>August 18, 2025</td><td></td><td>43</td><td>22</td><td>28</td><td>5</td><td>2</td><td>—N/a</td><td>0</td><td>± 3.1 pp</td><td>977</td><td>Online</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>Léger</td><td>June 22, 2025</td><td></td><td>44</td><td>23</td><td>25</td><td>5</td><td>3</td><td>—N/a</td><td>0</td><td>± 3.0 pp</td><td>1,056</td><td>Online</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>2025 election</td><td>April 28, 2025</td><td></td><td>42.6</td><td>23.3</td><td>27.7</td><td>4.5</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>—N/a</td><td>4,457,743</td><td>—N/a</td><td>14.9</td></tr></tbody></table>
Ontario
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Last date of polling</th><th>Link</th><th>LPC</th><th>CPC</th><th>NDP</th><th>GPC</th><th>PPC</th><th>Others</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Polling method</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Léger</td><td>May 25, 2025</td><td></td><td>54</td><td>37</td><td>5</td><td>3</td><td>—N/a</td><td>1</td><td>± 3.1 pp</td><td>908</td><td>Online</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>2025 election</td><td>April 28, 2025</td><td></td><td>49.0</td><td>43.8</td><td>4.9</td><td>1.2</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.2</td><td>—N/a</td><td>7,576,590</td><td>—N/a</td><td>5.2</td></tr></tbody></table>
Alberta
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Last date of polling</th><th>Link</th><th>LPC</th><th>CPC</th><th>NDP</th><th>GPC</th><th>PPC</th><th>Others</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Polling method</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Abacus Data</td><td>February 25, 2026</td><td></td><td>36</td><td>51</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>± 3.1 pp</td><td>1,000</td><td>Online</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>Mainstreet Research</td><td>February 12, 2026</td><td></td><td>45</td><td>48</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>± 2.5 pp</td><td>1,504</td><td>IVR</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Léger</td><td>May 25, 2025</td><td></td><td>35</td><td>54</td><td>5</td><td>3</td><td>—N/a</td><td>4</td><td>± 3.0 pp</td><td>925</td><td>Online</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>2025 election</td><td>April 28, 2025</td><td></td><td>27.9</td><td>63.5</td><td>6.3</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.8</td><td>—N/a</td><td>2,262,524</td><td>—N/a</td><td>35.6</td></tr></tbody></table>
British Columbia
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Last date of polling</th><th>Link</th><th>LPC</th><th>CPC</th><th>NDP</th><th>GPC</th><th>PPC</th><th>Others</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Polling method</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Mainstreet Research</td><td>March 13, 2026</td><td></td><td>46.7</td><td>34.1</td><td>9.6</td><td>3.9</td><td>1.4</td><td>4.3</td><td>± 3.0 pp</td><td>1,054</td><td>IVR</td><td>12.6</td></tr><tr><td>2025 election</td><td>April 28, 2025</td><td></td><td>41.8</td><td>41.0</td><td>13.0</td><td>3.0</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.6</td><td>—N/a</td><td>2,638,307</td><td>—N/a</td><td>0.8</td></tr></tbody></table>
Manitoba
<table><thead><tr><th>Polling firm</th><th>Last date of polling</th><th>Link</th><th>LPC</th><th>CPC</th><th>NDP</th><th>GPC</th><th>PPC</th><th>Others</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Polling method</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Probe Research</td><td>March 13, 2026</td><td></td><td>46</td><td>39</td><td>8</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>5</td><td>± 3.1 pp</td><td>1,000</td><td>IVR</td><td>12.6</td></tr><tr><td>Probe Research</td><td>December 10, 2025</td><td></td><td>43</td><td>38</td><td>14</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>6</td><td>± 3.1 pp</td><td>1,000</td><td>IVR</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>2025 election</td><td>April 28, 2025</td><td></td><td>40.8</td><td>46.3</td><td>11.0</td><td>0.7</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>—N/a</td><td>639,282</td><td>—N/a</td><td>5.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
Leadership polls
Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election
Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on which political party leader would make the best prime minister.
Government approval polls
Graphical summary
Approval of the 45th Canadian Parliament