Opinion polling for the 2026 Senedd election

Opinion polling for the 2026 Senedd election

In the run-up to the 2026 Senedd election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Senedd election, held on 6 May 2021, to the next election, to be held on 7 May 2026.

It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the first election following current reforms to the voting system, which increases the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopts a party-list voting system, reduces the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shortens its term from five years to four. However the 23 October 2025 Caerphilly by-election where 33,689 votes were cast used first-past-the-post voting.

Opinion polling

Polling using the 2026 electoral system

For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituencies used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.

Considering the polls from less than one year before the election, there have been 13 polls. Plaid Cymru have led in 6, while Reform UK have led in 5 and were tied in one of them, as well as Plaid and Reform UK being tied in 1, Labour has also led in 1. Of the polls with a sample size of 1,000 people or more, there have been 6, with Plaid leading in 5 of them, with Reform UK leading in 1.

LOESS curve of polling conducted

<table><thead><tr><th>Dates conducted</th><th>Pollster</th><th>Client</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Lab</th><th>Con</th><th>Plaid Cymru</th><th>Green</th><th>Lib Dems</th><th>Reform</th><th>Others</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2 - 22 Mar 2026</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>459</td><td>17%</td><td>9%</td><td>30%</td><td>11%</td><td>6%</td><td>27%</td><td>2%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>9 – 18 Mar 2026</td><td>YouGov</td><td>ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University</td><td>2,978</td><td>13%</td><td>7%</td><td>33%</td><td>12%</td><td>5%</td><td>27%</td><td>4%</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>15 Feb – 3 March 2026</td><td>More in Common</td><td>N/A</td><td>851</td><td>20%</td><td>10%</td><td>26%</td><td>10%</td><td>7%</td><td>26%</td><td>1%</td><td>Tie</td></tr><tr><td>30 Jan – 10 Feb 2026</td><td>More in Common</td><td>N/A</td><td>806</td><td>20%</td><td>13%</td><td>24%</td><td>5%</td><td>6%</td><td>31%</td><td>1%</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>486</td><td>20%</td><td>10%</td><td>29%</td><td>7%</td><td>5%</td><td>27%</td><td>1%</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>5 – 12 Jan 2026</td><td>YouGov</td><td>ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University</td><td>1,220</td><td>10%</td><td>10%</td><td>37%</td><td>13%</td><td>5%</td><td>23%</td><td>2%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>16 Dec 2025 – 4 Jan 2026</td><td>FindOutNow</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,503</td><td>12%</td><td>12%</td><td>30%</td><td>9%</td><td>7%</td><td>29%</td><td>2%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Cardiff University</td><td>1,891</td><td>10%</td><td>10%</td><td>33%</td><td>9%</td><td>6%</td><td>30%</td><td>2%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>10–30 Nov 2025</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>505</td><td>21%</td><td>12%</td><td>26%</td><td>9%</td><td>3%</td><td>27%</td><td>1%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>23 Oct 2025</td><td>2025 Caerphilly by-election, Plaid Cymru gain from Labour</td></tr><tr><td>22 Sep – 12 Oct 2025</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>533</td><td>23%</td><td>11%</td><td>22%</td><td>9%</td><td>4%</td><td>30%</td><td>2%</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>4–10 Sep 2025</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University</td><td>1,232</td><td>14%</td><td>11%</td><td>30%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>29%</td><td>4%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>400</td><td>27%</td><td>13%</td><td>21%</td><td>6%</td><td>5%</td><td>25%</td><td>2%</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025</td><td>More in Common</td><td>Sky News</td><td>883</td><td>23%</td><td>10%</td><td>26%</td><td>4%</td><td>7%</td><td>28%</td><td>2%</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>5–16 Jun 2025</td><td>FindOutNow</td><td>N/A</td><td>2,101</td><td>18%</td><td>11%</td><td>27%</td><td>7%</td><td>7%</td><td>29%</td><td>1%</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>23–30 Apr 2025</td><td>YouGov</td><td>ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University</td><td>1,265</td><td>18%</td><td>13%</td><td>30%</td><td>5%</td><td>7%</td><td>25%</td><td>2%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>10 Mar – 3 Apr 2025</td><td>Survation</td><td>N/A</td><td>809</td><td>27%</td><td>15%</td><td>24%</td><td>5%</td><td>5%</td><td>24%</td><td>1%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>3–23 Mar 2025</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>1,000</td><td>27%</td><td>16%</td><td>24%</td><td>5%</td><td>4%</td><td>23%</td><td>1%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>25–29 Nov 2024</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,121</td><td>23%</td><td>19%</td><td>24%</td><td>6%</td><td>5%</td><td>23%</td><td>1%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>4–24 Nov 2024</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>500</td><td>27%</td><td>18%</td><td>17%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>24%</td><td>2%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024</td><td>Survation</td><td>Reform UK</td><td>2,006</td><td>29%</td><td>18%</td><td>20%</td><td>7%</td><td>7%</td><td>19%</td><td>1%</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>24 Jul – 6 Aug 2024</td><td>Eluned Morgan is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales</td></tr><tr><td>5–18 Jul 2024</td><td>Welsh Election Study</td><td>N/A</td><td>2,565</td><td>25%</td><td>16%</td><td>24%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>16%</td><td>8% AWA on 7% Other on 1%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>4 Jul 2024</td><td>2024 United Kingdom general election</td></tr><tr><td>27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,072</td><td>27%</td><td>18%</td><td>23%</td><td>5%</td><td>6%</td><td>18%</td><td>3%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>5–7 Jun 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>960</td><td>36%</td><td>22%</td><td>18%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>11%</td><td>2% AWA on 2% Other on 0%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>30 May – 3 Jun 2024</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,066</td><td>30%</td><td>19%</td><td>23%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>12%</td><td>4%</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>18–19 May 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>900</td><td>37%</td><td>20%</td><td>20%</td><td>5%</td><td>3%</td><td>10%</td><td>5% AWA on 5% Other on 0%</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>8 May 2024</td><td>The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.</td></tr><tr><td>6 May 2021</td><td>2021 Senedd election (regional)</td><td>–</td><td>36.2%</td><td>25.1%</td><td>20.7%</td><td>4.4%</td><td>4.3%</td><td>1.1%</td><td>8.2%</td><td>11.1</td></tr><tr><td>6 May 2021</td><td>2021 Senedd election (constituency)</td><td>–</td><td>39.9%</td><td>26.1%</td><td>20.3%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>5.6%</td><td>13.8</td></tr></tbody></table>

Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

Regional vote

<table><thead><tr><th>Dates conducted</th><th>Pollster</th><th>Client</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Lab</th><th>Con</th><th>Plaid Cymru</th><th>Green</th><th>Lib Dems</th><th>AWA</th><th>UKIP</th><th>Reform</th><th>Others</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>24 Jun 2024</td><td>The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.</td></tr><tr><td>22–23 Apr 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>840</td><td>33%</td><td>18%</td><td>19%</td><td>6%</td><td>7%</td><td>5%</td><td>–</td><td>12%</td><td>1%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>23–24 Mar 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>878</td><td>32%</td><td>16%</td><td>18%</td><td>9%</td><td>7%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>11%</td><td>1%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>16–20 Mar 2024</td><td>Vaughan Gething is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales</td></tr><tr><td>18 Feb 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>874</td><td>29%</td><td>16%</td><td>25%</td><td>4%</td><td>8%</td><td>7%</td><td>–</td><td>10%</td><td>1%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>24–26 Jan 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,100</td><td>34%</td><td>19%</td><td>21%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>7%</td><td>1%</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>10–11 Dec 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,086</td><td>28%</td><td>20%</td><td>24%</td><td>7%</td><td>8%</td><td>4%</td><td>–</td><td>7%</td><td>1%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>12–13 Nov 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,100</td><td>32%</td><td>21%</td><td>18%</td><td>9%</td><td>6%</td><td>5%</td><td>–</td><td>7%</td><td>1%</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>14–15 Oct 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>959</td><td>31%</td><td>21%</td><td>24%</td><td>4%</td><td>5%</td><td>7%</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td><td>0%</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>16–17 Sep 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,172</td><td>35%</td><td>21%</td><td>18%</td><td>6%</td><td>12%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>1–6 Sep 2023</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,051</td><td>34%</td><td>16%</td><td>20%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>9%</td><td>1%</td><td>6%</td><td>2%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>13–14 Aug 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,068</td><td>31%</td><td>19%</td><td>22%</td><td>6%</td><td>10%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>10%</td><td>3%</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>14–16 Jul 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,050</td><td>33%</td><td>20%</td><td>19%</td><td>6%</td><td>10%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>6%</td><td>4%</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>17–18 Jun 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,000</td><td>30%</td><td>22%</td><td>20%</td><td>6%</td><td>9%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td><td>4%</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>16 Jun 2023</td><td>Rhun ap Iorwerth is elected leader of Plaid Cymru</td></tr><tr><td>12–17 May 2023</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,064</td><td>36%</td><td>16%</td><td>18%</td><td>7%</td><td>7%</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td><td>7%</td><td>1%</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>14–15 May 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,058</td><td>30%</td><td>21%</td><td>24%</td><td>4%</td><td>10%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td><td>4%</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>15–17 Apr 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,251</td><td>32%</td><td>22%</td><td>23%</td><td>7%</td><td>8%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>7%</td><td>2%</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>3–7 Feb 2023</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,081</td><td>39%</td><td>18%</td><td>20%</td><td>5%</td><td>5%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>6%</td><td>2%</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,042</td><td>38%</td><td>16%</td><td>23%</td><td>5%</td><td>2%</td><td>8%</td><td>2%</td><td>4%</td><td>2% Gwlad 1% Other 1%</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>20–22 Sep 2022</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,014</td><td>37%</td><td>18%</td><td>21%</td><td>5%</td><td>5%</td><td>7%</td><td>2%</td><td>4%</td><td>1%</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>12–16 Jun 2022</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,020</td><td>31%</td><td>21%</td><td>24%</td><td>6%</td><td>5%</td><td>6%</td><td>2%</td><td>6%</td><td>2% Gwlad 1% Other 1%</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,086</td><td>34%</td><td>23%</td><td>20%</td><td>4%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>1%</td><td>3%</td><td>2% Gwlad 1% Other 1%</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>13–16 Dec 2021</td><td>YouGov</td><td>ITV Wales</td><td>1,009</td><td>35%</td><td>22%</td><td>19%</td><td>7%</td><td>3%</td><td>6%</td><td>2%</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>13–16 Sep 2021</td><td>YouGov</td><td>ITV Wales</td><td>1,057</td><td>33%</td><td>26%</td><td>19%</td><td>5%</td><td>4%</td><td>6%</td><td>4%</td><td>2%</td><td>1%</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>6 May 2021</td><td>2021 Senedd election</td><td>–</td><td>36.2%</td><td>25.1%</td><td>20.7%</td><td>4.4%</td><td>4.3%</td><td>3.7%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>1.1%</td><td>2.9%</td><td>11.1</td></tr></tbody></table>

By section

Date conducted	Pollster	Client	Subsection	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	Lead
November 2024	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	South West Wales and the Valleys	1000 (500)	28	13	19	4	6	27	1
Cardiff and South East Wales	34	23	10	6	8	16	11
North and Mid Wales	21	18	24	8	4	24	Tie
Male voters	28	20	10	6	7	27	1
Female voters	27	15	26	6	5	20	1
Aged 16-34	37	9	21	9	7	17	16
Aged 34-54	32	15	21	4	8	19	11
Aged over 55	21	22	15	6	5	29	7
ABC1	28	23	18	7	6	15	5
C2DE	26	11	17	5	6	34	8
Welsh speakers	24	16	31	5	6	17	7
Non-Welsh speakers	29	18	13	6	6	26	3

Constituency vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes.

<table><thead><tr><th>Dates conducted</th><th>Pollster</th><th>Client</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Lab</th><th>Con</th><th>Plaid Cymru</th><th>Lib Dems</th><th>AWA</th><th>Green</th><th>Reform</th><th>Other</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>8 May 2024</td><td>The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.</td></tr><tr><td>22–23 Apr 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>840</td><td>37%</td><td>21%</td><td>22%</td><td>4%</td><td>3%</td><td>3%</td><td>10%</td><td>0%</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>23–24 Mar 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>878</td><td>36%</td><td>21%</td><td>21%</td><td>3%</td><td>3%</td><td>3%</td><td>11%</td><td>1%</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>16–20 Mar 2024</td><td>Vaughan Gething is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales</td></tr><tr><td>18 Feb 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>874</td><td>34%</td><td>21%</td><td>19%</td><td>6%</td><td>4%</td><td>3%</td><td>13%</td><td>0%</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>24–26 Jan 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,100</td><td>39%</td><td>25%</td><td>18%</td><td>3%</td><td>3%</td><td>4%</td><td>9%</td><td>1%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>10–11 Dec 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,086</td><td>41%</td><td>22%</td><td>17%</td><td>7%</td><td>3%</td><td>3%</td><td>7%</td><td>0%</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>12–13 Nov 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,100</td><td>40%</td><td>23%</td><td>18%</td><td>3%</td><td>3%</td><td>4%</td><td>7%</td><td>0%</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>14–15 Oct 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>959</td><td>37%</td><td>27%</td><td>18%</td><td>4%</td><td>5%</td><td>3%</td><td>6%</td><td>0%</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>16–17 Sep 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,172</td><td>39%</td><td>27%</td><td>18%</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td><td>6%</td><td>3%</td><td>1%</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>1–6 Sep 2023</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,051</td><td>41%</td><td>18%</td><td>19%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>4%</td><td>8%</td><td>7%</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>13–14 Aug 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,068</td><td>37%</td><td>21%</td><td>20%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>9%</td><td>4%</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>14–16 Jul 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,050</td><td>42%</td><td>22%</td><td>16%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>7%</td><td>3%</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>17–18 Jun 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,000</td><td>36%</td><td>22%</td><td>19%</td><td>7%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>10%</td><td>3%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>16 Jun 2023</td><td>Rhun ap Iorwerth is elected leader of Plaid Cymru</td></tr><tr><td>12–17 May 2023</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,064</td><td>40%</td><td>18%</td><td>17%</td><td>7%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td><td>8%</td><td>4%</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>14–15 May 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,058</td><td>38%</td><td>23%</td><td>20%</td><td>7%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>7%</td><td>2%</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>15–17 Apr 2023</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,251</td><td>41%</td><td>21%</td><td>20%</td><td>5%</td><td>–</td><td>4%</td><td>8%</td><td>2%</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>3–7 Feb 2023</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,081</td><td>43%</td><td>18%</td><td>20%</td><td>4%</td><td>–</td><td>4%</td><td>9%</td><td>1%</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,042</td><td>44%</td><td>17%</td><td>20%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>7%</td><td>4%</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>20–22 Sep 2022</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,014</td><td>40%</td><td>20%</td><td>22%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>5%</td><td>4%</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>12–16 Jun 2022</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,020</td><td>37%</td><td>24%</td><td>21%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td><td>5%</td><td>3%</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,086</td><td>38%</td><td>24%</td><td>21%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>5%</td><td>4%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>13–16 Dec 2021</td><td>YouGov</td><td>ITV Wales</td><td>1,009</td><td>40%</td><td>23%</td><td>17%</td><td>4%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td><td>7%</td><td>4%</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>13–16 Sep 2021</td><td>YouGov</td><td>ITV Wales</td><td>1,057</td><td>37%</td><td>27%</td><td>19%</td><td>5%</td><td>–</td><td>4%</td><td>5%</td><td>5%</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>6 May 2021</td><td>2021 Senedd election</td><td>–</td><td>39.9%</td><td>26.1%</td><td>20.3%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>5.6%</td><td>13.8</td></tr></tbody></table>

Seat projections

Opinion polling for the 2026 Senedd election

Ahead of the election, various modelling efforts have produced seat projections for the next Senedd election. Below are selected projections and the result of the previous election for comparison.

Organisation	Last date	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	Others	Majority
Beaufort Research	2 - 22 Mar 2026	15	6	37	6	2	30	0	Hung (Plaid Cymru −12)
YouGov	9 – 18 Mar 2026	12	1	43	10	0	30	0	Hung (Plaid Cymru −6)
Beaufort Research	19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026	23	7	35	1	1	29	0	Hung (Plaid Cymru −14)
Election Maps UK	14 Jan 2026	8	8	44	8	1	27	0	Hung (Plaid Cymru −5)
YouGov	5 – 12 Jan 2026	8	6	45	11	3	23	0	Hung (Plaid Cymru −4)
Election Maps UK	7 Jan 2026	11	8	39	5	1	32	0	Hung (Plaid Cymru −10)
YouGov	28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025	8	6	39	5	3	35	0	Hung (Plaid Cymru −10)
Election Maps UK	17 December 2025	13	6	38	4	1	34	0	Hung (Plaid Cymru −11)
Election Maps UK	23 October 2025	20	8	29	2	1	36	0	Hung (Reform −13)
Cavendish Cymru/NationCymru–Beaufort	21 October 2025	24	7	25	2	1	37	0	Hung (Reform −12)
2021 election	6 May 2021	30	16	13	0	1	0	0	Hung (Labour −1, minority government)