32nd Alberta general election

32nd Alberta general election

The 32nd Alberta general election will elect members of the Legislative Assembly to serve in the 32nd Alberta Legislature. The Election Act requires that the election be held on October 18, 2027, but it may be called earlier.

In December 2024, the Electoral Boundaries Commission was mandated to propose new boundaries for 89 ridings, an increase from 87. It submitted its final report in March 2026. If the legislature implements the report before the 31st Legislature is dissolved, the election will be with these new boundaries.

Date of the election

32nd Alberta general election

Under the fixed-date provisions of Alberta's Election Act, "election day for a general election shall be the third Monday in October in the 4th calendar year following the election day of the most recent general election". As the previous election was held in 2023, the next election is scheduled for October 18, 2027. However, the Election Act is subject to the powers of the lieutenant governor of Alberta to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

Timeline

2023

• May 29: The United Conservative Party (UCP) wins a majority government in the 31st Alberta general election, with the Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP) forming the Official Opposition. No other parties win seats in the election. • June 9: The UCP Cabinet is sworn in. • June 20: Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Nathan Cooper is elected Speaker of the Legislative Assembly. • September 18: Jordan Wilkie resigns as Green Party leader. • October 15: Barry Morishita resigns as Alberta Party leader.

2024

• January 16: Rachel Notley announces intention to resign as NDP leader before the next election. She will remain as leader until a leadership race chooses a successor. • May 30: Bill 21 receives royal assent, changing the next fixed election date to October 18, 2027. • June 22: Naheed Nenshi is elected leader of the Alberta NDP. • July 1: Shannon Phillips resigns as MLA for Lethbridge-West, triggering a by-election. • October 9: Jennifer Johnson, who appeared on the ballot as a UCP candidate in the last provincial election but was disavowed by the party during the campaign due to controversial comments comparing transgender children to faeces, is returned back to the UCP caucus. • November 20: By-election for the riding of Lethbridge-West called for December 18. • December 5: Bill 31 receives royal assent, allowing the Electoral Boundaries Commission to add 2 more seats in the next redistribution. • December 18: The 2024 Lethbridge-West provincial by-election is held, with the NDP's Rob Miyashiro elected. • December 30: Rachel Notley resigns as MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona, triggering a by-election.

2025

• January 23: Naheed Nenshi acclaimed as Alberta NDP's by-election candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona. • March 7: Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair is removed from the UCP Caucus over comments made criticizing the budget. • March 25: Rod Loyola resigns as MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie, triggering a by-election. • April 16: Airdrie-Cochrane MLA Peter Guthrie is removed from the UCP Caucus after publishing a letter alleging the health minister withheld information from cabinet relating to the Alberta Health Services board of directors. • May 13: MLA Ric McIver resigns his position as Minister of Municipal Affairs and is elected to the position of Speaker of the House, following Nathan Cooper's resignation as speaker. • May 22: Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Nathan Cooper resigns his seat. • June 23: By-elections are held in the ridings of Edmonton-Strathcona, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, Edmonton-Ellerslie. The NDP and UCP held their respective seats. • July 23: Airdrie-Cochrane MLA Peter Guthrie and Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair join the Alberta Party, intending to change its name to the Progressive Conservatives. • August 27: The Alberta Party votes to rebrand as the Progressive Conservative Party, pending confirmation from Elections Alberta. • December 9: Peter Guthrie becomes the leader of the Alberta Party. • December 18: The Alberta Party officially changes its name to the Progressive Tory Party.

2026

March 26: The Electoral Boundaries Commission submits its report recommending the limits of 89 ridings.

Opinion polls

32nd Alberta general election

Overall Polling with a local regression (LOESS) trend line for each party and a monthly average.

<table><thead><tr><th>Pollster</th><th>Client</th><th>Dates conducted</th><th>Source</th><th>UCP</th><th>NDP</th><th>Green</th><th>PT</th><th>Liberal</th><th>WLC</th><th>WIP</th><th>RPA</th><th>Others</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Polling method</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Abacus Data</td><td>N/A</td><td>Feb 20–25, 2026</td><td></td><td>49%</td><td>36%</td><td>2%</td><td>2%</td><td>9%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>3%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,000</td><td>Online</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>Mainstreet Research</td><td>Western Standard</td><td>Feb 10–12, 2026</td><td></td><td>48%</td><td>40%</td><td>—</td><td>3%</td><td>6%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>1%</td><td>2%</td><td>2.5%</td><td>1,504</td><td>Smart IVR</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>Jan 23–26, 2026</td><td></td><td>50%</td><td>37%</td><td>1%</td><td>4%</td><td>2%</td><td>1%</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td><td>3%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,003</td><td>Online</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>Liaison</td><td>N/A</td><td>Jan 7–11, 2026</td><td></td><td>46%</td><td>44%</td><td>2%</td><td>2%</td><td>4%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,000</td><td>IVR</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Dec 18, 2025</td><td>The Alberta Party changes its name to the Progressive Tory Party of Alberta.</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Dec 9, 2025</td><td>Peter Guthrie becomes the leader of the Alberta Party.</td></tr><tr><td>Angus Reid</td><td>N/A</td><td>Nov 26–Dec 1, 2025</td><td></td><td>48%</td><td>45%</td><td>—</td><td>4%</td><td>3%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>1%</td><td>5%</td><td>362</td><td>Online</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>Oct 10–12, 2025</td><td></td><td>44%</td><td>39%</td><td>3%</td><td>2%</td><td>9%</td><td><1%</td><td>—</td><td>1%</td><td>1%</td><td>3.0%</td><td>1,045</td><td>Online</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Cardinal Research</td><td>N/A</td><td>Sep 17–20, 2025</td><td></td><td>43%</td><td>36%</td><td>—</td><td>4%</td><td>5%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>11%</td><td>1%</td><td>2%</td><td>2,626</td><td>IVR</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>Angus Reid</td><td>N/A</td><td>Aug 28–Sep 5, 2025</td><td></td><td>51%</td><td>40%</td><td>—</td><td>4%</td><td>3%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>1%</td><td>5%</td><td>431</td><td>Online</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>May 23–25, 2025</td><td></td><td>48%</td><td>34%</td><td>2%</td><td>2%</td><td>9%</td><td><1%</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td><td>2%</td><td>3.04%</td><td>1,040</td><td>Online</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>Abacus Data</td><td>N/A</td><td>May 15–21, 2025</td><td></td><td>58%</td><td>32%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>10%</td><td>5.0%</td><td>400</td><td>Online</td><td>26%</td></tr><tr><td>Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research</td><td>CBC News</td><td>May 7–21, 2025</td><td></td><td>52%</td><td>38%</td><td>1%</td><td>1%</td><td>3%</td><td>—</td><td><1%</td><td>—</td><td>4%</td><td>2.8%</td><td>1,200</td><td>Telephone</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>Environics</td><td>Alberta Federation of Labour</td><td>Apr 2–14, 2025</td><td></td><td>43%</td><td>47%</td><td>—</td><td>6%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>4%</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,003</td><td>Online</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Mainstreet Research</td><td>N/A</td><td>Mar 18, 2025</td><td></td><td>51%</td><td>39%</td><td>2%</td><td>—</td><td>3%</td><td>—</td><td>1%</td><td>—</td><td>3%</td><td>2.8%</td><td>1,228</td><td>Smart IVR</td><td>12%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>Jan 24–26, 2025</td><td></td><td>51%</td><td>36%</td><td>2%</td><td>3%</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,002</td><td>Online</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>Cardinal Research</td><td>N/A</td><td>Sep 17–28, 2024</td><td></td><td>50%</td><td>43%</td><td>2%</td><td>1%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>4%</td><td>2.5%</td><td>1,553</td><td>Telephone</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>Aug 2–5, 2024</td><td></td><td>48%</td><td>40%</td><td>3%</td><td>4%</td><td>3%</td><td>2%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,005</td><td>Online</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>Sovereign North Strategies</td><td>Western Standard</td><td>Jul 6–11, 2024</td><td></td><td>47%</td><td>46%</td><td>1%</td><td>4%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>2.4%</td><td>2,861</td><td>Telephone</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>Abacus Data</td><td>N/A</td><td>Jun 25–28, 2024</td><td></td><td>54%</td><td>40%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>6%</td><td>3.31%</td><td>1,000</td><td>Online</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>June 22, 2024</td><td>Naheed Nenshi elected leader of the Alberta NDP.</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>May 22–25, 2024</td><td></td><td>47%</td><td>43%</td><td>—</td><td>6%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>4%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,009</td><td>Online</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>Mar 22–24, 2024</td><td></td><td>46%</td><td>44%</td><td>1%</td><td>4%</td><td>1%</td><td>1%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,002</td><td>Online</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Abacus Data</td><td>N/A</td><td>Mar 14–21, 2024</td><td></td><td>55%</td><td>40%</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,000</td><td>Online</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>Pallas Data</td><td>N/A</td><td>Mar 12–13, 2024</td><td></td><td>52%</td><td>45%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>3%</td><td>3.3%</td><td>868</td><td>IVR</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>Mar 8–11, 2024</td><td></td><td>49%</td><td>41%</td><td>—</td><td>6%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>4%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,001</td><td>Online</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>Feb 9–12, 2024</td><td></td><td>49%</td><td>42%</td><td>—</td><td>5%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>4%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,002</td><td>Online</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>Jan 19–22, 2024</td><td></td><td>51%</td><td>40%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>9%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,001</td><td>Online</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>Jan 12–15, 2024</td><td></td><td>50%</td><td>43%</td><td>—</td><td>3%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>4%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,012</td><td>Online</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>Angus Reid</td><td>N/A</td><td>Nov 24 – Dec 1, 2023</td><td></td><td>53%</td><td>40%</td><td>—</td><td>3%</td><td>2%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>1%</td><td>5%</td><td>392</td><td>Online</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>Oct 27–30, 2023</td><td></td><td>46%</td><td>47%</td><td>—</td><td>5%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,001</td><td>Online</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>Leger</td><td>N/A</td><td>Sep 15–18, 2023</td><td></td><td>49%</td><td>39%</td><td>2%</td><td>4%</td><td>3%</td><td>1%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td><td>3.1%</td><td>1,001</td><td>Online</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>2023 general election</td><td>May 29, 2023</td><td></td><td>52.63%</td><td>44.05%</td><td>0.76%</td><td>0.71%</td><td>0.24%</td><td>0.24%</td><td>0.05%</td><td>0.01%</td><td>1.31%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>8.58%</td></tr></tbody></table>