2026 United States Senate election in Michigan

2026 United States Senate election in Michigan

The 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. Democratic former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former congressman Mike Rogers are the nominees for their respective parties. Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is not seeking a third term.

For most of the primary, El-Sayed, congresswoman Haley Stevens, and state senator Mallory McMorrow sought to become the Democratic nominee. After McMorrow withdrew in July, El-Sayed and Stevens remained in a tight race, with El-Sayed winning the Democratic nomination on August 4 with 48.5% of the vote. Rogers, the Republican nominee in (/wiki/2024UnitedStatesSenateelectioninMichigan), was the only candidate to qualify for his party's primary ballot.

This is the only open Democratic-held Senate seat up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Republicans have not won a Senate election in Michigan since (/wiki/1994UnitedStatesSenateelectioninMichigan).

Background

2026 United States Senate election in Michigan

Michigan is considered to be a swing state. Most recently in the (/wiki/2020UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMichigan) and (/wiki/2024UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMichigan) presidential elections, the state backed Joe Biden by 2.8% and Donald Trump by 1.4%, respectively. Gary Peters was first elected with 54.6% of the vote in (/wiki/2014UnitedStatesSenateelectioninMichigan) and re-elected with 49.9% in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatesSenateelectioninMichigan). He announced in January 2025 that he was not seeking reelection for a third term.

Both parties have had electoral success in Michigan in recent years, though Democrats have generally performed better in non-presidential races. Democrats currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide executive offices, and the state senate. Republicans control the Michigan House of Representatives and hold a majority of the state's U.S. House seats. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Michigan since (/wiki/1994UnitedStatesSenateelectioninMichigan), this Senate seat since (/wiki/1972UnitedStatesSenateelectioninMichigan) or a non-presidential statewide election since (/wiki/2014UnitedStateselections).

As one of only two Democratic-held Senate seats in a state won by Donald Trump in 2024, Michigan is considered a key Senate battleground in 2026.

Democratic primary

Campaign

Mallory McMorrow, who was first elected to the Michigan Senate in 2018, announced her campaign for the U.S. Senate on April 2, 2025, becoming the first high-profile Democrat to enter the race to succeed Gary Peters. Her campaign launch featured footage from a 2022 speech defending her support for transgender individuals following criticism from Republican colleagues. Abdul El-Sayed, former director of Wayne County's Department of Health, Human and Veteran Services, entered the race on April 19, 2025. Haley Stevens, who has represented Michigan's 11th congressional district since 2018, announced her candidacy three days later. By March 2026, McMorrow had collected more than 30,000 volunteer-gathered signatures, qualifying for the ballot without paid petition circulators. In April 2026, Stevens and El-Sayed also qualified for the ballot after collecting the required signatures. That month, all three candidates spoke at the Michigan Democratic Party's Spring Endorsement Convention in Detroit.

Stevens, McMorrow, and El-Sayed each represented different ideological wings and campaign strategies within the Democratic Party. Stevens, who received private backing from Senate Democratic leadership, was viewed as the more moderate candidate, while El-Sayed was considered the most progressive. El-Sayed told Time that he is not a socialist and believes in capitalism. McMorrow centered her campaign on the need for new Democratic leadership and pledged not to support Chuck Schumer as Senate Democratic leader if elected. El-Sayed criticized that position, arguing it was shortsighted to oppose Schumer without identifying a successor. Stevens emphasized her role in helping rescue the Big Three automakers during the Obama administration, while McMorrow and El-Sayed promoted diversifying Michigan's economy through apprenticeships in industries such as beekeeping, winemaking, and leather-making.

McMorrow withdrew from the race in July 2026 after her polling declined. Following McMorrow's departure from the race, independent polls showed Stevens and El-Sayed statistically tied. In the days leading up to the election, polls had showed El-Sayed with a double digit lead. Stevens was later endorsed by Peters and several prominent Michigan Democrats, including former Senator Debbie Stabenow, former Governor Jennifer Granholm, and Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

Campaign finance emerged as a point of contrast during the primary. El-Sayed and McMorrow called for an end to corporate political spending and declined corporate donations during the election cycle, while Stevens expressed support for campaign finance reform and said she was "not taking any new pledges." Financial disclosure also became an issue after Stevens, describing herself as the "only non-millionaire" in the race, urged El-Sayed to release his financial disclosure report before the August 4 primary. El-Sayed had previously received an extension to file the report until August 13 but released his 2026 financial returns publicly in July.

Policy differences between the candidates centered on immigration, foreign policy, and healthcare. Israel emerged as a major issue in the race. El-Sayed, who is considered more pro-Palestinian and the most critical of Israel of all the candidates, called for ending all unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel. In contrast, Stevens has voted to provide additional military aid to Israel, has received significant support from the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, and stated she does not believe there has been a genocide in Gaza. She supports a two-state solution and advocates for both sides, Israelis and Palestinians, to peacefully coexist with each other. She also has a negative relationship with Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, accusing him of endangering Jewish people worldwide. On domestic policy, El-Sayed supports Medicare for All and the abolition of ICE, while Stevens has taken more moderate versions of each stance, calling for the expansion of Medicare access and reforming ICE. El-Sayed has faced criticism for claiming that he never supported the Defund the Police movement despite previously promoting it on Detroit Public Radio and social media. He later stated he denied ever having supported the movement, after deleting more than a dozen posts confirming his support for the movement.

In the days leading up to August 4, El-Sayed marched in downtown Detroit and attended a private pool party with several social media influencers that included Hasan Piker. El-Sayed then held his election night watch party at the Majestic Theatre in Detroit a few hours after conducting a series of interviews that included the Associated Press, MS Now, and content creators in Eastern Market. The Associated Press called the race for El-Sayed the morning after the election who had roughly a one percent lead over Stevens with 99% of the votes reporting. That same day, Stevens called El-Sayed to concede the race and pledged to support him in the general election against Mike Rogers.

Analysis

The primary campaign has seen debate arise over the electability of the candidates. Figures on the progressive left and the democratic socialist movement, have argued that El-Sayed's policy positions would energize voters in both the primary and general election. Stevens has benefited from an outside spending advantage, with approximately $50 million spent on her behalf compared with less than $2.3 million for El-Sayed as of July 2026. AIPAC has spent nearly $30 million supporting Stevens, surpassing all of their prior investments made for a candidate in a particular race. Their primary political action committee, The United Democracy Project, released a Michigan advertisement featuring a 2018 clip of Barack Obama praising Stevens for her work as chief of staff to a federal task force created to assist the automobile industry in 2009. Meanwhile, presumptive Republican nominee Mike Rogers told supporters during a private call that he believes he would be in "good shape" if he had to face El-Sayed in the general election, whom he believes is polarizing and would "lose big parts of the west part of the state" in the general election.

Meanwhile, Stevens' supporters argued that El-Sayed's appeal to the progressive base would be detrimental in a general election and could alienate voters in a state Donald Trump has won twice. Stevens' supporters have argued that El-Sayed's embrace of democratic socialist figures as a risky, untested electoral strategy that could jeopardize Democratic efforts to retain the seat and win a Senate majority. El-Sayed's choice to campaign with Hasan Piker, a polarizing internet figure, drew backlash from McMorrow, Stevens, and Rogers. Other Democrats and party leaders argued that El-Sayed's embrace of Piker would inhibit his ability to win the general election, particularly amongst Jewish voters. Stevens had been successful in flipping a Republican-held House seat in (/wiki/2018UnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativeselectionsinMichigan#District11) and retained it in every subsequent election, including in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativeselectionsinMichigan#District11), when Joe Biden narrowly carried her district, which her supporters believe demonstrates her electability. They also cited the electoral success of other moderate Democratic women in Michigan, including current Senator Elissa Slotkin, former Governor Jennifer Granholm, and current Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who won competitive races, as an argument for Stevens being the more electable candidate.

Nominee

• Abdul El-Sayed, former Wayne County health director (2023–2025) and candidate for governor in (/wiki/2018Michigangubernatorialelection)

Eliminated in primary

• Haley Stevens, U.S. representative from Michigan's 11th congressional district (2019–present)

Withdrawn

• Mallory McMorrow, state senator from the 8th district (2019–present) (remained on ballot) • Joe Tate, former speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives (2023–2025) from the 9th district (2019–present) (endorsed Stevens)

Declined

• Pete Buttigieg, former U.S. secretary of transportation (2021–2025) • Debbie Dingell, U.S. representative from Michigan's 6th congressional district (2015–present) (running for re-election) • Garlin Gilchrist, lieutenant governor of Michigan (2019–present) (running for secretary of state) • Gary Peters, incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present) (endorsed Stevens) • Kristen McDonald Rivet, U.S. representative from Michigan's 8th congressional district (2025–present) (running for re-election) • Hillary Scholten, U.S. representative from Michigan's 3rd congressional district (2023–present) (running for re-election) (endorsed Stevens) • Shri Thanedar, U.S. representative from Michigan's 13th congressional district (2023–present) (running for re-election) (endorsed Stevens) • Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan (2019–present) (endorsed Stevens)

Debates and forums

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Democratic	Democratic	Democratic
Key:  P  Participant  W  Withdrawn
					El-Sayed	McMorrow	Stevens
1	February 11, 2026	United Auto Workers	Mark DePaoli Brandon Mancilla LaShawn English	YouTube	P	P	P
2	April 24, 2026	Council of Baptist Pastors of Detroit and Vicinity	Jackie Nelson James Williams	YouTube	P	P	P
3	May 28, 2026	Mackinac Policy Conference	Nolan Finley Stephen Henderson	YouTube	P	P	P
4	July 7, 2026	WOOD-TV	Rick Albin	YouTube	P	W	P
5	July 27, 2026	Fox 2 Detroit	Roop Raj	YouTube	P	W	P

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 15, 2026
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Abdul El-Sayed (D)	$14,528,335	$11,975,573	$2,552,762
Rachel Howard (D)	$10,937	$6,170	$4,766
Mallory McMorrow (D)	$11,386,720	$9,519,089	$1,867,631
Haley Stevens (D)	$11,884,632	$9,091,338	$2,793,294
Joe Tate (D)	$243,635	$243,635	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Abdul El-Sayed	Mallory McMorrow	Haley Stevens	Undecided	Margin
270toWin	June 29 – July 29, 2026	July 31, 2026	46.8%	4.5%	39.4%	9.3%	El-Sayed +7.4%
Decision Desk HQ	through July 30, 2026	August 3, 2026	52.6%	—	39.6%	7.8%	El-Sayed +13.0%
Race to the WH	through July 30, 2026	August 1, 2026	52.6%	—	39.6%	7.8%	El-Sayed +13.0%
RealClearPolitics	July 8–29, 2026	July 30, 2026	50.5%	—	40.3%	9.2%	El-Sayed +10.2%
FiftyPlusOne	through July 30, 2026	August 1, 2026	51.8%	3.8%	38.9%	5.5%	El-Sayed +12.9%
Average			50.9%	4.2%	39.6%	5.3%	El-Sayed +11.3%

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Abdul El-Sayed</th><th>Mallory McMorrow</th><th>Haley Stevens</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>SoCal Strategies (R)</td><td>July 28–30, 2026</td><td>437 (LV)</td><td>± 4.7%</td><td>56%</td><td>—</td><td>39%</td><td>—</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Zenith Research (D)</td><td rowspan="2">July 26–30, 2026</td><td rowspan="2">536 (LV)</td><td rowspan="2">± 4.2%</td><td>59%</td><td>—</td><td>41%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td></tr><tr><td>53%</td><td>2%</td><td>34%</td><td>—</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Mitchell Research & Communications</td><td>July 28–29, 2026</td><td>406 (LV)</td><td>± 4.9%</td><td>52%</td><td>4%</td><td>38%</td><td>—</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">The Public Sentiment Institute</td><td rowspan="2">July 25–29, 2026</td><td>762 (RV)</td><td rowspan="2">± 4.0%</td><td>50%</td><td>—</td><td>36%</td><td>—</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>762 (LV)</td><td>48%</td><td>—</td><td>40%</td><td>—</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Emerson College</td><td rowspan="2">July 26–27, 2026</td><td rowspan="2">700 (LV)</td><td rowspan="2">± 3.7%</td><td>57%</td><td>2%</td><td>41%</td><td>—</td><td>—</td></tr><tr><td>54%</td><td>2%</td><td>39%</td><td>—</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Tavern Research (D)</td><td rowspan="2">July 26–27, 2026</td><td rowspan="2">914 (LV)</td><td rowspan="2">± 4.1%</td><td>46%</td><td>4%</td><td>36%</td><td>—</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>48%</td><td>—</td><td>37%</td><td>—</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>Tulchin Research (D)</td><td>July 13–15, 2026</td><td>500 (LV)</td><td>—</td><td>56%</td><td>—</td><td>40%</td><td>—</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Data for Progress (D)</td><td>July 10–14, 2026</td><td>614 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>54%</td><td>—</td><td>41%</td><td>—</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Glengariff Group</td><td>July 8–11, 2026</td><td>500 (LV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>41%</td><td>—</td><td>48%</td><td>—</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Tavern Research (D)</td><td rowspan="2">July 6–8, 2026</td><td rowspan="2">2,211 (LV)</td><td rowspan="2">± 2.5%</td><td>41%</td><td>5%</td><td>38%</td><td>—</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>41%</td><td>—</td><td>42%</td><td>—</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>July 5, 2026</td><td colspan="8">McMorrow suspends her campaign</td></tr><tr><td>Quantus Insights (R)</td><td>June 29–30, 2026</td><td>947 (LV)</td><td>± 3.3%</td><td>41%</td><td>8%</td><td>36%</td><td>—</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>Wedgewood Polls</td><td>June 25–28, 2026</td><td>353 (LV)</td><td>± 5.7%</td><td>46%</td><td>9%</td><td>39%</td><td>—</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Tulchin Research (D)</td><td>June 24–28, 2026</td><td>500 (LV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>46%</td><td>17%</td><td>27%</td><td>—</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>Peak Insights (R)</td><td>June 20–24, 2026</td><td>400 (LV)</td><td>± 6.0%</td><td>39%</td><td>18%</td><td>28%</td><td>—</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>Susquehanna Polling & Research</td><td>June 9–14, 2026</td><td>205 (LV)</td><td>± 6.9%</td><td>22%</td><td>9%</td><td>20%</td><td>—</td><td>49%</td></tr><tr><td>Mitchell Research & Communications</td><td>June 11–13, 2026</td><td>409 (LV)</td><td>± 4.9%</td><td>42%</td><td>6%</td><td>33%</td><td>—</td><td>19%</td></tr><tr><td>Lake Research Partners (D)</td><td>May 26–28, 2026</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>34%</td><td>19%</td><td>31%</td><td>—</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>Tulchin Research (D)</td><td>May 19–25, 2026</td><td>500 (LV)</td><td>—</td><td>41%</td><td>18%</td><td>23%</td><td>—</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>TIPP Insights (R)</td><td>May 20–23, 2026</td><td>619 (LV)</td><td>—</td><td>31%</td><td>13%</td><td>35%</td><td>1%</td><td>19%</td></tr><tr><td>Mitchell Research</td><td>May 1–7, 2026</td><td>405 (LV)</td><td>± 4.9%</td><td>27%</td><td>17%</td><td>18%</td><td>—</td><td>38%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Glengariff Group</td><td rowspan="2">April 17–19, 2026</td><td rowspan="2">500 (LV)</td><td rowspan="2">± 4.4%</td><td>23%</td><td>16%</td><td>25%</td><td>0%</td><td>36%</td></tr><tr><td>23%</td><td>18%</td><td>25%</td><td>—</td><td>34%</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>April 11–13, 2026</td><td>519 (LV)</td><td>± 4.3%</td><td>24%</td><td>24%</td><td>13%</td><td>3%</td><td>36%</td></tr><tr><td>Data for Progress (D)</td><td>April 2–8, 2026</td><td>515 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>22%</td><td>22%</td><td>23%</td><td>—</td><td>33%</td></tr><tr><td>Global Strategy Group (D)</td><td>March 19−22, 2026</td><td>800 (LV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>25%</td><td>30%</td><td>23%</td><td>—</td><td>21%</td></tr><tr><td>Upswing Research (D)</td><td>February 26 – March 2, 2026</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>23%</td><td>25%</td><td>27%</td><td>—</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Impact Research (D)</td><td>February 10–16, 2026</td><td>800 (LV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>26%</td><td>25%</td><td>28%</td><td>—</td><td>21%</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>January 24–25, 2026</td><td>491 (LV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>16%</td><td>22%</td><td>16%</td><td>7%</td><td>38%</td></tr><tr><td>Mitchell Research & Communications</td><td>November 18–21, 2025</td><td>261 (LV)</td><td>± 6.1%</td><td>16%</td><td>24%</td><td>27%</td><td>—</td><td>33%</td></tr><tr><td>Rosetta Stone Communications (R)</td><td>October 23–25, 2025</td><td>287 (LV)</td><td>± 5.8%</td><td>20%</td><td>25%</td><td>26%</td><td>—</td><td>29%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="1">NRSC (R)</td><td>July 4–7, 2025</td><td>582 (LV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>22%</td><td>11%</td><td>24%</td><td>1%</td><td>42%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="1">Global Strategy Group (D)</td><td>May 28 − June 2, 2025</td><td>800 (LV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>15%</td><td>20%</td><td>24%</td><td>4%</td><td>37%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Glengariff Group</td><td rowspan="2">May 5–8, 2025</td><td rowspan="2">600 (RV)</td><td rowspan="2">± 4.0%</td><td>22%</td><td>14%</td><td>34%</td><td>—</td><td>30%</td></tr><tr><td>24%</td><td>12%</td><td>34%</td><td>—</td><td>30%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Results

Unofficial primary election results by county:   El-Sayed   Stevens

In the primary election, El-Sayed won the election by carrying 30 of the state's 83 counties, including nine in Upper Michigan and an additional nine north of Grand Rapids. Stevens performed well in Metro Detroit, The Thumb, and much of Northern Michigan. She carried the majority of the vote in Michigan's suburban areas by five percentage points, whereas El-Sayed had his strongest showing with voters aged 18–34 and those living in cities outside of Detroit.

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Abdul El-Sayed	742,017	48.48
	Democratic	Haley Stevens	727,091	47.51
	Democratic	Mallory McMorrow (withdrawn)	61,344	4.01
Total votes			1,530,452	100.0

Republican primary

Campaign

Michigan was considered one of the top Republican senate pickup opportunities for the 2026 cycle, and national Republicans quickly coalesced around their (/wiki/2024UnitedStatesSenateelectioninMichigan) senate nominee, former congressman Mike Rogers, as their preferred candidate. Rogers' only significant opposition was from former co-chair of the Michigan Republican Party Bernadette Smith, who had vacated this position one week prior to the launch of her candidacy. Fox News labeled her campaign as a "longshot" due to Donald Trump having already endorsed Rogers prior to Smith's entrance into the race, and because of her criminal record, which included a no-contest plea of felony welfare fraud and a guilty conviction for seriously injuring a ten-year old boy in an automobile accident. Smith did not make the primary ballot after being disqualified by the Board of State Canvassers for not submitting the required number of signatures, thus allowing Rogers to win the nomination uncontested.

Nominee

• Mike Rogers, former U.S. representative from Michigan's 8th congressional district (2001–2015) and nominee for U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2024UnitedStatesSenateelectioninMichigan)

Disqualified

• Bernadette Smith, former co-chair of the Michigan Republican Party (2025)

Not on ballot

• Kent Benham, dentist • Genevieve Peters Scott, educator

Declined

• Mike Cox, former Michigan attorney general (2003–2011) (ran for governor) • Tudor Dixon, conservative media personality and nominee for governor in (/wiki/2022Michigangubernatorialelection) • Tony Dungy, former head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Indianapolis Colts • Bill Huizenga, U.S. representative from Michigan's 4th congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election) • Perry Johnson, businessman, disqualified candidate for governor in (/wiki/2022Michigangubernatorialelection), and candidate for president in (/wiki/2024RepublicanPartypresidentialprimaries) (running for governor) • Lisa McClain, U.S. representative from Michigan's 9th congressional district (2021–present) (running for re-election) • Kevin Rinke, former car dealer and candidate for governor in (/wiki/2022Michigangubernatorialelection)

Fundraising

Italics indicate a withdrawn or disqualified candidate.

Campaign finance reports as of July 15, 2026
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Fred Heurtebise (R)	$10,058	$10,058	$0
Mike Rogers (R)	$10,898,177	$6,680,643	$4,473,237
Genevieve Scott (R)	$83,079	$80,540	$2,538
Bernadette Smith (R)	$77,239	$73,172	$4,067
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Rogers	Bernadette Smith	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	April 11–13, 2026	452 (LV)	± 4.6%	55%	1%	6%	38%

Results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mike Rogers	879,934	100.0
Total votes			879,934	100.0

Third-parties and independents

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 15, 2026
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
TJ Stephens (I)	$1,000	$220	$779
Source: Federal Election Commission

Nominee

• Douglas P. Marsh, journalist and Green nominee for U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2024UnitedStatesSenateelectioninMichigan)

General election

Predictions

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Tossup</td><td>April 13, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>Decision Desk HQ</td><td>Tossup</td><td>August 5, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>The Economist</td><td>Tossup</td><td>August 5, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>FiftyPlusOne</td><td>Lean D</td><td>August 3, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>Fox News</td><td>Lean D</td><td>July 21, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>Inside Elections</td><td>Tossup</td><td>April 23, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>Race To The WH</td><td>Tossup</td><td>August 5, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>RealClearPolitics</td><td>Tossup</td><td>May 19, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Tossup</td><td>March 4, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>Silver Bulletin</td><td>Lean D</td><td>August 11, 2026</td></tr></tbody></table>

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Abdul El-Sayed (D)	$14,528,335	$11,975,573	$2,552,762
Mike Rogers (R)	$10,898,177	$6,680,643	$4,473,237
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Abdul El-Sayed (D)	Mike Rogers (R)	Other/ Undecided	Margin
270toWin	July 22–31, 2026	August 2, 2026	42.3%	46.7%	11.0%	Rogers +4.4%
Race to the WH	through July 31, 2026	August 2, 2026	42.9%	45.0%	12.1%	Rogers +2.1%
RealClearPolitics	May 20 – July 31, 2026	August 2, 2026	44.0%	44.3%	11.7%	Rogers +0.3%
Silver Bulletin	through July 31, 2026	August 11, 2026	43.9%	45.5%	10.6%	Rogers +1.6%
Average			43.3%	45.4%	11.3%	Rogers +2.1%

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Abdul El-Sayed (D)</th><th>Mike Rogers (R)</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)</td><td>August 6–10, 2026</td><td>1,006 (RV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>47%</td><td>51%</td><td>—</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>August 4, 2026</td><td colspan="16">Primary elections</td></tr><tr><td>EPIC-MRA</td><td>July 24–31, 2026</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>43%</td><td>46%</td><td>—</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>SoCal Strategies (R)</td><td>July 28–30, 2026</td><td>640 (LV)</td><td>± 3.8%</td><td>41%</td><td>42%</td><td>—</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Mitchell Research & Communications</td><td>July 28–29, 2026</td><td>672 (LV)</td><td>± 3.8%</td><td>45%</td><td>45%</td><td>—</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>Glengariff Group</td><td>July 22–24, 2026</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>39%</td><td>49%</td><td>1%</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Quantus Insights (R)</td><td>June 29–30, 2026</td><td>947 (LV)</td><td>± 3.3%</td><td>45%</td><td>44%</td><td>3%</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>Data for Progress (D)</td><td>June 15–22, 2026</td><td>709 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>47%</td><td>46%</td><td>—</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>Zenith Research (D)</td><td>June 11–14, 2026</td><td>602 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>45%</td><td>42%</td><td>—</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>Mitchell Research & Communications</td><td>June 11–13, 2026</td><td>827 (LV)</td><td>± 3.4%</td><td>47%</td><td>42%</td><td>—</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Tulchin Research (D)</td><td>June 2–4, 2026</td><td>500 (LV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>46%</td><td>41%</td><td>—</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">TIPP Insights (R)</td><td rowspan="2">May 20–23, 2026</td><td>1,456 (RV)</td><td>± 2.7%</td><td>40%</td><td>40%</td><td>7%</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>1,163 (LV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>43%</td><td>42%</td><td>6%</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>Mitchell Research</td><td>May 1–7, 2026</td><td>607 (LV)</td><td>± 6.0%</td><td>41%</td><td>42%</td><td>—</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Glengariff Group</td><td rowspan="2">April 28 – May 1, 2026</td><td rowspan="2">600 (LV)</td><td rowspan="2">± 4.0%</td><td>40%</td><td>45%</td><td>—</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>42%</td><td>45%</td><td>—</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>January 24–25, 2026</td><td>1,000 (LV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>43%</td><td>43%</td><td>—</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Glengariff Group</td><td rowspan="2">January 2–6, 2026</td><td rowspan="2">600 (LV)</td><td rowspan="2">± 4.0%</td><td>47%</td><td>43%</td><td>—</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>42%</td><td>48%</td><td>—</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>Mitchell Research & Communications</td><td>November 18–21, 2025</td><td>616 (LV)</td><td>± 3.7%</td><td>38%</td><td>41%</td><td>—</td><td>22%</td></tr><tr><td>Rosetta Stone Communications (R)</td><td>October 23–25, 2025</td><td>637 (LV)</td><td>± 3.9%</td><td>31%</td><td>45%</td><td>—</td><td>24%</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Glengariff Group</td><td rowspan="2">May 5–8, 2025</td><td rowspan="2">600 (RV)</td><td rowspan="2">± 4.0%</td><td>41%</td><td>47%</td><td>—</td><td>12%</td></tr><tr><td>45%</td><td>47%</td><td>—</td><td>8%</td></tr></tbody></table>