2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana

2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana

The 2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Louisiana. A runoff election will be held on December 12, 2026 if no candidate wins a majority. Party primary elections will be held on May 16, 2026 with a runoff on June 27 if no candidate wins a majority in the primary. Incumbent Republican senator Bill Cassidy, who was re-elected in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatesSenateelectioninLouisiana), is running for re-election to a third term. Cassidy's vote to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial has led to primary challenges against him.

Following the enactment of House Bill 17 in 2024, this will be the first U.S. Senate election in Louisiana to utilize party primaries instead of a single blanket primary since (/wiki/2010UnitedStatesSenateelectioninLouisiana). Louisiana has been represented in the U.S. Senate exclusively by Republicans since 2015, and Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election there since (/wiki/2008UnitedStatesSenateelectioninLouisiana).

Background

Change of electoral system

In January 2024, governor Jeff Landry signed House Bill 17, sponsored by representative Julie Emerson, which eliminated the top-two Louisiana primary system in favor of partisan primaries in elections for Congress, the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, the Public Service Commission, and the Supreme Court. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primaries, but not members of other parties, including the Independent Party of Louisiana. The bill also indicated the use of runoff elections if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primary. The law is to take effect beginning with the 2026 elections, making this election the first in which Louisiana will elect a U.S. senator using this system since (/wiki/2010UnitedStatesSenateelectioninLouisiana); the top-two primary was first implemented in congressional elections in (/wiki/1978UnitedStatesSenateelectioninLouisiana).

Primary challenge to Cassidy

Senator Bill Cassidy, who has held this seat since 2015, has gained notoriety within the Republican Party for his vocal criticism of President Donald Trump. Cassidy denounced the January 6 U.S. Capitol attack, accused participants of sedition, and voted to certify the 2020 election results. He was one of seven Senate Republicans to vote to convict Trump for incitement of insurrection during his second impeachment, prompting the Republican Party of Louisiana to censure him. During Trump’s 2024 campaign, Cassidy publicly opposed his candidacy, citing Trump’s four criminal indictments.

Cassidy’s stance has led analysts to view him as vulnerable to a right-wing primary challenge. Early speculation included Congressman Clay Higgins, a Trump supporter, who ultimately declined to run. On January 18, 2026, Trump endorsed Julia Letlow, who officially entered the race two days later.

Republican primary

Declared

• Bill Cassidy, incumbent U.S. senator • John Fleming, Louisiana State Treasurer (2024–present), former U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 4th congressional district (2009–2017), and candidate for U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2016UnitedStatesSenateelectioninLouisiana) • Julia Letlow, U.S. representative from Louisiana’s 5th congressional district (2021–present) • Mark Spencer

Withdrawn

• Julie Emerson, state representative from the 39th district (2016–present) • Blake Miguez, state senator from the 22nd district (2024–present) (running for LA-05) • Kathy Seiden, St. Tammany Parish councilor (endorsed Letlow) • Eric Skrmetta, member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission from the 1st district (2009–present) (endorsed Letlow) • Sammy Wyatt, healthcare professional (running for LA-05)

Declined

• Clay Higgins, U.S. representative from Louisiana's 3rd congressional district (running for re-election)

Fundraising

Italics indicated a withdrew or declined candidate.

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2025
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Bill Cassidy (R)	$11,729,417	$3,262,575	$10,104,519
John Fleming (R)	$8,718,121	$6,602,209	$2,115,984
Julia Letlow (R)	$2,004,227	$905,934	$2,445,060
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Bill Cassidy	John Fleming	Julia Letlow	Other/ Undecided	Margin
Race to the WH	through March 12, 2026	March 18, 2026	26.0%	22.8%	23.1%	28.4%	Cassidy +2.9%

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Bill Cassidy</th><th>John Fleming</th><th>Julia Letlow</th><th>Blake Miguez</th><th>Eric Skrmetta</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)</td><td>March 11–12, 2026</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>26%</td><td>19%</td><td>27%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>1%</td><td>27%</td></tr><tr><td>34%</td><td>–</td><td>46%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>20%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Opinion Strategies (R)</td><td>March 7–10, 2026</td><td>500 (LV)</td><td>–</td><td>35%</td><td>21%</td><td>24%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>2%</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>45%</td><td>–</td><td>43%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>12%</td></tr><tr><td>BDPC</td><td>February 21–23, 2026</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>–</td><td>28%</td><td>21%</td><td>21%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>30%</td></tr><tr><td>34%</td><td>–</td><td>42%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>24%</td></tr><tr><td>32%</td><td>43%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>–</td><td>36%</td><td>27%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>37%</td></tr><tr><td>Quantus Insights (R)</td><td>February 23–24, 2026</td><td>1,428 (LV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>20%</td><td>34%</td><td>25%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>21%</td></tr><tr><td>23%</td><td>57%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>20%</td></tr><tr><td>27%</td><td>–</td><td>48%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>–</td><td>42%</td><td>32%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>26%</td></tr><tr><td>Cor Strategies (R)</td><td>February 20–24, 2026</td><td>– (V)</td><td>–</td><td>30%</td><td>17%</td><td>15%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>14%</td><td>24%</td></tr><tr><td>JMC Analytics & Polling</td><td>February 14–16, 2026</td><td>645 (LV)</td><td>± 3.9%</td><td>22%</td><td>26%</td><td>25%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>1%</td><td>26%</td></tr><tr><td>28%</td><td>48%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>24%</td></tr><tr><td>–</td><td>40%</td><td>31%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>29%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>February 13, 2026</td><td>Skrmetta withdraws</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>February 3, 2026</td><td>Miguez withdraws, runs for Letlow's House seat</td></tr><tr><td>BDPC</td><td>January 20–22, 2026</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>–</td><td>21%</td><td>14%</td><td>27%</td><td>5%</td><td>–</td><td>6%</td><td>27%</td></tr><tr><td>28%</td><td>45%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Opinion Strategies (R)</td><td>January 20–22, 2026</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>–</td><td>32%</td><td>16%</td><td>21%</td><td>9%</td><td>1%</td><td>0%</td><td>19%</td></tr><tr><td>40%</td><td>–</td><td>46%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>January 20, 2026</td><td>Letlow enters the race</td></tr><tr><td>JMC Analytics & Polling</td><td>January 12–14, 2026</td><td>650 (LV)</td><td>± 3.8%</td><td>22%</td><td>23%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>16%</td><td>39%</td></tr><tr><td>26%</td><td>44%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>30%</td></tr><tr><td>JMC Analytics & Polling</td><td>October 15–17, 2025</td><td>610 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>23%</td><td>25%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>17%</td><td>35%</td></tr><tr><td>29%</td><td>40%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>31%</td></tr><tr><td>Ragnar Research Partners (R)</td><td>April 14–16, 2025</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>45%</td><td>28%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>34%</td></tr><tr><td>JMC Analytics & Polling</td><td>February 24–26, 2025</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>27%</td><td>40%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>33%</td></tr><tr><td>27%</td><td>29%</td><td>–</td><td>6%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>36%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Democratic primary

Declared

• Nick Albares, nonprofit executive and former aide to Governor John Bel Edwards • Gary Crockett, data scientist and political consultant • Jamie Davis, farmer and candidate for Louisiana's 21st House of Representatives district in (/wiki/2023LouisianaHouseofRepresentativeselection#District21)

Did not file

• Tracie Burke, political consultant • Jabarie Walker, former chief of staff for the Housing Authority of New Orleans

Declined

• John Bel Edwards, former governor of Louisiana (2016–2024) • Jay Luneau, state senator from the 29th district (2016–present)

Fundraising

Italics indicated a withdrew or declined candidate.

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Jamie Davis (D)	$16,865	$173	$16,692
Source: Federal Election Commission

General election

Predictions

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Inside Elections</td><td>Solid R</td><td>August 12, 2025</td></tr><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Solid R</td><td>October 14, 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Safe R</td><td>August 12, 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Race To The WH</td><td>Safe R</td><td>September 4, 2025</td></tr></tbody></table>