2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election

2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election

The 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of South Dakota. The primary elections will be held on June 2, 2026, and if no candidate receives over 35% in a primary, a runoff election will take place on July 28.

Incumbent Republican Larry Rhoden, who ascended to the office of governor in 2025 after Kristi Noem resigned to become secretary of homeland security, is running for his first full term in office. Rhoden had previously been serving as lieutenant governor under Noem since the two took office in 2019. Democrats have not won a gubernatorial election in South Dakota since (/wiki/1974SouthDakotagubernatorialelection).

Republican primary

Declared

• Toby Doeden, retail and real estate executive • Jon Hansen, Speaker of the South Dakota House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 25th district (2011–2013, 2019–present) • Running mate: Karla Lems, state representative from the 16th district (2023–present) • Dusty Johnson, U.S. representative from South Dakota's at-large congressional district (2019–present) • Larry Rhoden, incumbent governor (2025–present) • Running mate: Tony Venhuizen, incumbent lieutenant governor (2025–present)

Declined

• Marty Jackley, Attorney General of South Dakota (2009–2019, 2023–present) (running for U.S. House) • Mike Rounds, U.S. Senator (2015–present) and former governor (2003–2011) (running for re-election) • Paul TenHaken, mayor of Sioux Falls (2018–present)

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Toby Doeden</th><th>Jon Hansen</th><th>Dusty Johnson</th><th>Larry Rhoden</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>March 7–9, 2026</td><td>413 (LV)</td><td>± 4.8%</td><td>18%</td><td>14%</td><td>28%</td><td>17%</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Opinion Strategies (R)</td><td>March 2–5, 2026</td><td>400 (LV)</td><td>± 4.9%</td><td>16%</td><td>10%</td><td>33%</td><td>28%</td><td>12%</td></tr><tr><td>Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy</td><td>October 16–20, 2025</td><td>502 (RV)</td><td>± 4.5%</td><td>15%</td><td>10%</td><td>28%</td><td>27%</td><td>21%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Democratic primary

Declared

• Daniel Ahlers, executive director of the South Dakota Democratic Party, former state representative (2006–2008, 2017–2019), former state senator (2008–2010), and nominee for U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatesSenateelectioninSouthDakota) • Robert Arnold, college student

Independents

Declared

• Terry Gleason, web developer and convicted sex offender • Scott Morris, retired Air Force veteran • Anthony Sitter, HVAC installer

Declined

• Rick Knobe, former mayor of Sioux Falls (1974–1984) and candidate for state senate in (/wiki/2020SouthDakotaSenateelection#District25)

Withdrawn

• Allison Renville, political organizer and Democratic candidate for South Dakota's 1st legislative district in 2018

General election

Predictions

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Solid R</td><td>September 11, 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Inside Elections</td><td>Solid R</td><td>August 28, 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Safe R</td><td>September 4, 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Race to the WH</td><td>Likely R</td><td>December 3, 2025</td></tr></tbody></table>