2026 Senedd election

The 2026 Senedd election is poised to be a watershed moment for Welsh politics, introducing the most sweeping reforms to its electoral system since the parliament's inception. With an expanded Senedd and a completely reimagined voting method, this election will fundamentally reshape how Wales is governed. It's not just a change in numbers, but a redefinition of representation and political power in the nation. The 2026 Senedd election will see a radical overhaul of the electoral system, increasing the Senedd's size from 60 to 96 members and adopting a pure proportional representation model. This election follows a turbulent political period, characterized by shifts in UK-wide and Welsh public opinion, making the outcome highly unpredictable and potentially leading to complex coalition formations. Key campaign issues revolve around the economy, public services, and fundamental questions about Welsh autonomy, with parties proposing starkly different visions for the nation's future.

Source: Wikipedia

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The 2026 Senedd election is poised to be a watershed moment for Welsh politics, introducing the most sweeping reforms to its electoral system since the parliament's inception. With an expanded Senedd and a completely reimagined voting method, this election will fundamentally reshape how Wales is governed. It's not just a change in numbers, but a redefinition of representation and political power in the nation.

A New Era for Welsh Democracy

On May 7, 2026, Wales will head to the polls for its seventh devolved general election, but this one is unlike any before it. This isn't just a routine vote; it's a seismic event that will fundamentally alter the Senedd — Wales's national parliament, formerly known as the National Assembly for Wales.

For decades, the Senedd, established in 1999, operated with 60 members. They were elected through a 'mixed-member' system: 40 members by 'first past the post' in single constituencies, and 20 regionally through a party list, using the D'Hondt method to ensure some proportionality.

Revolutionary Electoral Reforms

But come 2026, all that changes. Thanks to the Senedd Reform Act, the parliament will expand dramatically to 96 members. And every single one of them will be elected through a new, fully proportional system.

The new system divides Wales into 16 larger constituencies. Each of these is formed by pairing two existing UK Parliament constituencies. From these 16 new super-constituencies, six members will be elected from 'closed party lists' using the D'Hondt method of proportional representation.

This shift means voters will cast a single vote for a political party's list of candidates in their area. If an elected Senedd member resigns during their term, there won't be a by-election; instead, the next person on that party's list will step in, ensuring continuity and party representation.

Interestingly, an earlier proposal for a 'zipping' system — mandating an equal number of male and female candidates on party lists to ensure gender parity — was ultimately scrapped in September 2024, leaving gender balance to parties' internal selections.

The Political Backdrop

The road to 2026 has been politically charged. In the 2021 Senedd election, Welsh Labour secured a strong position, just shy of an outright majority. However, more recent elections have shown a shifting landscape.

The 2022 Welsh local elections saw the Welsh Conservatives lose ground to both Plaid Cymru and Labour. Then, a significant blow came in the 2024 UK general election in Wales, where the Conservatives were entirely wiped out, losing all their Welsh seats.

This turbulent period, coupled with criticisms of the UK Labour leadership after various scandals in late 2025, has created a sense of immense pressure. Some believe that underperformance in the 2026 Senedd election could trigger a leadership challenge for the UK Prime Minister.

Indeed, opinion polls have often suggested a surprisingly tight race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with Labour rarely leading. Commentators are calling the 2026 vote the 'most consequential Senedd election since 1999' — a true test for Welsh politics.

Campaign Issues and Coalitions

According to political experts, the major issues dominating the campaign include the economy, the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, the state of health and social care services, and immigration. These are the battlegrounds where parties are vying for public support.

The potential for post-election coalitions is a hot topic. Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan has openly stated her willingness to form a coalition with Plaid Cymru 'if needs must' but has drawn a 'red line' against Reform UK, calling them an 'English focused party'.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has echoed this sentiment, firmly ruling out cooperation with Reform UK due to fundamentally different worldviews. However, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, entering the Welsh political fray, indicated his party would work with any other Senedd party, acknowledging the difficulty of winning an outright majority under the new system.

Party Pledges and Promises

Plaid Cymru has championed social welfare, pledging to introduce a weekly 'Cynnal' child benefit, akin to Scotland's, and to expand universal childcare to 20 hours a week for 48 weeks a year for children aged 9 months to 4 years.

Welsh Labour has committed to a £4 billion investment in building 'hospitals of the future', a freeze on Welsh income tax rates, ensuring urgent medical needs are seen within 48 hours, expanding free school meals, creating 20,000 new childcare spaces, and delivering 100,000 new homes.

The Welsh Conservatives unveiled a manifesto focused on economic growth and traditional values. They proposed building the M4 Relief Road, cutting income tax by 1 pence, scrapping business rates for small firms, and re-establishing the Welsh Development Agency. They also promised to reverse the 20mph national default speed limit, scrap the 'Nation of Sanctuary' initiative, and restrict wind farm developments.

Reform UK, led by new Welsh leader Dan Thomas — a former Conservative councillor from London — echoed many Conservative pledges: a 1 pence income tax cut, reversing the 20mph limit, and scrapping the 'Nation of Sanctuary'. They added promises to make the M4 Relief Road a toll road, prioritize local people for social housing, abolish Natural Resources Wales, and ban new onshore wind farms.

Meanwhile, the Welsh Liberal Democrats focused on cross-border healthcare, calling for a £10 million investment for services in Powys, highlighting regional needs often overlooked in broader policy debates.

The Green Party, experiencing a surge in popularity following their new leader Zack Polanski's election, has also thrown its hat into the ring. Their positive relationship with Plaid Cymru suggests potential future collaboration, though Plaid's leader has stated a preference for a minority government over any formal coalition.

Looking Ahead

This election has already seen its share of drama, including a Reform UK candidate stepping down after a photo appeared to show him performing a Nazi salute, adding a layer of controversy to the campaign.

A significant number of long-serving Senedd members, particularly from Welsh Labour, have announced their retirement. This exodus of experienced politicians, including former First Minister Mark Drakeford and current First Minister Vaughan Gething, creates further uncertainty and opens the door for new faces and fresh perspectives in the Senedd.

With polls often showing Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in a tight race, and Labour sometimes trailing, the 2026 Senedd election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and transformative electoral contests in Welsh history. The outcome will not only determine who governs Wales but also the very nature of its future political landscape.

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2026 Senedd election

The 2026 Senedd election is due to be held on 7 May 2026 to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the first election following reforms to the voting system, which increase the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopt a party-list voting system, reduce the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shorten its term from five years to four. The election will be held on the same day as local elections in England and elections to the Scottish Parliament.

Background

2026 Senedd election

In the 2021 Senedd election, Welsh Labour won another government with just one seat short of their first-ever majority. At the 2022 Welsh local elections, the Welsh Conservatives suffered losses to Plaid Cymru and Labour. In the 2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales, Labour won the most seats and the Conservatives were wiped out losing all their Welsh seats.

In September 2025, following the Angela Rayner tax scandal that led to her resignation and a Labour Party deputy leadership election, the subsequent cabinet reshuffle, and the dismissal of Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to the United States over the latter's association with Jeffrey Epstein, criticisms of Starmer's leadership became more prominent within the Labour Party. MPs reportedly viewed underperformance in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections and next Senedd election as a likely catalyst for a leadership challenge. Polls have suggested a neck and neck battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. The 2026 vote is considered to be seismic for Welsh politics, and is being touted as the "most consequential Senedd election since 1999".

Electoral system

2026 Senedd election

The 2026 Senedd election will use a new electoral system following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act. The Senedd will have 96 members, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method) in 16 six-member constituencies. The 16 constituencies were created by pairing up the 32 Westminster constituencies. Parties can nominate up to 8 candidates on their list in each constituency.

In the event that an elected Senedd member resigns during the term, they will be replaced by the member below them on their party's list rather than a by-election being held. In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in (/wiki/1999WelshAssemblyelection), the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, and had 60 members, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The new electoral system would be ready to be used only for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up. The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.

Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women; however, this bill was scrapped in September 2024.

Constituencies

Map of the 16 constituencies to be used for the election

Incumbent Senedd members

2026 Senedd election

MSs who have announced their retirement are in italics.

<table><thead><tr><th>Members currently in office</th><th>2026 Senedd election</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Old constituency</td><td>Member</td><td>Old region</td><td>Members</td><td>New constituency</td><td>Incumbents seeking re-election</td><td>Elected members</td></tr><tr><td>Aberconwy</td><td>  Janet Finch-Saunders (Con)</td><td>North Wales</td><td>  Carolyn Thomas (Lab)  Mark Isherwood (Con)  Sam Rowlands (Con)  Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid)</td><td>Bangor Conwy Môn</td><td>  Janet Finch-Saunders (Con, #1)  Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid, #1)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Ynys Môn</td><td>  Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid)</td></tr><tr><td>Clwyd West</td><td>  Darren Millar (Con)</td><td>Clwyd</td><td>  Hannah Blythyn (Lab, #1)  Carolyn Thomas (Lab, #2)  Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid, #1)  Darren Millar (Con, #1)  Gareth Davies (Con, #2)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Delyn</td><td>  Hannah Blythyn (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Vale of Clwyd</td><td>  Gareth Davies (Con)</td></tr><tr><td>Alyn and Deeside</td><td>  Jack Sargeant (Lab)</td><td>Fflint Wrecsam</td><td>  Ken Skates (Lab, #1)  Jack Sargeant (Lab, #2)  Sam Rowlands (Con, #1)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Wrexham</td><td>  Lesley Griffiths (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Clwyd South</td><td>  Ken Skates (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Arfon</td><td>  Siân Gwenllian (Plaid)</td><td>Gwynedd Maldwyn</td><td>  Siân Gwenllian (Plaid, #1)  Mabon ap Gwynfor (Plaid, #2)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Dwyfor Meirionnydd</td><td>  Mabon ap Gwynfor (Plaid)</td><td>Mid and West Wales</td><td>  Cefin Campbell (Plaid)  Eluned Morgan (Lab)  Joyce Watson (Lab)  Jane Dodds (Lib Dem)</td></tr><tr><td>Montgomeryshire</td><td>  Russell George (Independent)</td></tr><tr><td>Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire</td><td>  Samuel Kurtz (Con)</td><td>Ceredigion Penfro</td><td>  Elin Jones (Plaid, #1)  Eluned Morgan (Lab, #1)  Paul Davies (Con, #1)  Samuel Kurtz (Con, #2)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Ceredigion</td><td>  Elin Jones (Plaid)</td></tr><tr><td>Preseli Pembrokeshire</td><td>  Paul Davies (Con)</td></tr><tr><td>Carmarthen East and Dinefwr</td><td>  Adam Price (Plaid)</td><td>Sir Gaerfyrddin</td><td>  Cefin Campbell (Plaid, #1)  Adam Price (Plaid, #3)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Llanelli</td><td>  Lee Waters (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Brecon and Radnorshire</td><td>  James Evans (Ref)</td><td>Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd</td><td>  Sioned Williams (Plaid, #1)  Jane Dodds (Lib Dem, #1)  James Evans (Ref, #1)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Neath</td><td>  Jeremy Miles (Lab)</td><td>South Wales West</td><td>  Tom Giffard (Con)  Altaf Hussain (Con)  Sioned Williams (Plaid)  Luke Fletcher (Plaid)</td></tr><tr><td>Gower</td><td>  Rebecca Evans (Lab)</td><td>Gŵyr Abertawe</td><td>  Tom Giffard (Con, #1)  Mike Hedges (Lab, #1)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Swansea East</td><td>  Mike Hedges (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Swansea West</td><td>  Julie James (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Aberavon</td><td>  David Rees (Lab)</td><td>Afan Ogwr Rhondda</td><td>  Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab, #1)  Buffy Williams (Lab, #2)  David Rees (Lab, #3)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Ogmore</td><td>  Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Rhondda</td><td>  Buffy Williams (Lab)</td><td>(South Wales Central)</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Bridgend</td><td>  Sarah Murphy (Lab)</td><td>(South Wales West)</td><td></td><td>Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg</td><td>  Sarah Murphy (Lab, #1)  Andrew RT Davies (Con, #1)  Luke Fletcher (Plaid, #3)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Vale of Glamorgan</td><td>  Jane Hutt (Lab)</td><td>South Wales Central</td><td>  Andrew RT Davies (Con)  Joel James (Con)  Rhys ab Owen (Independent)  Heledd Fychan (Plaid)</td></tr><tr><td>Cardiff South and Penarth</td><td>  Vaughan Gething (Lab)</td><td>Caerdydd Penarth</td><td></td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Cardiff West</td><td>  Mark Drakeford (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Cardiff Central</td><td>  Jenny Rathbone (Lab)</td><td>Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf</td><td>  Joel James (Con, #1)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Cardiff North</td><td>  Julie Morgan (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Cynon Valley</td><td>  Vikki Howells (Lab)</td><td>Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr</td><td>  Heledd Fychan (Plaid, #1)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Pontypridd</td><td>  Mick Antoniw (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney</td><td>  Dawn Bowden (Lab)</td><td>South Wales East</td><td>  Laura Anne Jones (Ref)  Natasha Asghar (Con)  Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid)  Delyth Jewell (Plaid)</td></tr><tr><td>Blaenau Gwent</td><td>  Alun Davies (Lab)</td><td>Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni</td><td>  Delyth Jewell (Plaid, #1)  Lindsay Whittle (Plaid, #2)  Alun Davies (Lab, #1)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Caerphilly</td><td>  Lindsay Whittle (Plaid)</td></tr><tr><td>Islwyn</td><td>  Rhianon Passmore (Lab)</td><td>Casnewydd Islwyn</td><td>  Natasha Asghar (Con, #1)   Jayne Bryant (Lab, #1)  Rhianon Passmore (Lab, #2)  Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid, #1)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Newport East</td><td>  John Griffiths (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Newport West</td><td>  Jayne Bryant (Lab)</td></tr><tr><td>Monmouth</td><td>  Peter Fox (Con)</td><td>Sir Fynwy Torfaen</td><td>  Lynne Neagle (Lab, #1)  Peter Fox (Con, #1)  Laura Anne Jones (Ref, #1)</td><td>TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD</td></tr><tr><td>Torfaen</td><td>  Lynne Neagle (Lab)</td></tr></tbody></table>

Candidates

2026 Senedd election

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election who are seeking re-election are bolded.

<table><thead><tr><th>Constituency</th><th>Order</th><th>Labour</th><th>Plaid Cymru</th><th>Conservative</th><th>Reform UK</th><th>Liberal Democrats</th><th>Green</th><th>Others and independents</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Afan Ogwr Rhondda</td><td>1</td><td>Huw Irranca-Davies</td><td>Sera Evans</td><td>Abigail Mainon</td><td>Benjamin McKenna</td><td>Dean Ronan</td><td>Nigel Pugh</td><td>Captain Beany (Independent) Kimberley Isherwood (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Buffy Williams</td><td>Alun Cox</td><td>Peter Crocker-Jacques</td><td>Sarah Cooper Lesard</td><td>Cen Phillips</td><td>Anna Tuhey</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>David Rees</td><td>Elyn Stephens</td><td>Tony Kear</td><td>Darren James</td><td>Gerald Francis</td><td>Stephanie Woodhouse</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Stephanie Grimshaw</td><td>Danny Grehan</td><td>William Martin</td><td>Louise Musgrave</td><td>Helen Thomas</td><td>David Wade</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Lisa Pritchard</td><td>Luned-Mair Barratt</td><td>Rachael Astle</td><td>Catrin Thomas</td><td>Jim Hehir</td><td>Abby-lee Rees</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Elaine Winstanley</td><td>Wendy Allsopp</td><td>Barbara Jones</td><td>Zakery Weaver</td><td>James McGettrick</td><td>Ellis Thomas</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Dilwar Ali</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Tamasree Mukhopadhyay</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Bangor Conwy Môn</td><td>1</td><td>Joanna Stallard</td><td>Rhun ap Iorwerth</td><td>Janet Finch-Saunders</td><td>Helen Jenner</td><td>Leena Farhat</td><td>Tomos Barlow</td><td>Mark Edwards (Heritage Party) Jaime Fitter (Communist)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Emily Owen</td><td>Mair Rowlands</td><td>Harry Montagu-Saville</td><td>Thomas Clarke</td><td>Rachel Roberts</td><td>Linda Rogers</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Margaret Lewis</td><td>Elfed Williams</td><td>Martin Peet</td><td>Richard John Jones</td><td>Rob Atendstaedt</td><td>Nick Bounds</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Rebecca Gibbons</td><td>Dyfed Jones</td><td>Sam Cotton</td><td>Andrew Winston-Jones</td><td>David McBride</td><td>Francis Cookson</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Huw Vaughan Jones</td><td>Nia Clwyd Owen</td><td>David Ashworth</td><td>Craig Jones</td><td>Mark Rosenthal</td><td>Vanessa Hall</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Natasha Jose</td><td>Vivek Thuppil</td><td>Lucinda Samuel</td><td>David Wyn Thomas</td><td>Kath Lewis</td><td>David Bunker</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td></td><td>Lisa Elfyn Butler</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni</td><td>1</td><td>Alun Davies</td><td>Delyth Jewell</td><td>Gareth Potter</td><td>Llŷr Powell</td><td>Steve Aicheler</td><td>Anne Baker</td><td>Mike Whatley (Independent) Anthony Cook (Gwlad) Jared Burgess (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Richard Tunnicliffe</td><td>Lindsay Whittle</td><td>Jan Butler</td><td>Catherine Cullen</td><td>David Scullin</td><td>Alexis Celnik</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Keiran Russell</td><td>Niamh Salkeld</td><td>John Child</td><td>Joshua Kim</td><td>Catherine Dowden-King</td><td>Rachel Roberts</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Sara Beard</td><td>Catrin Moss</td><td>David West</td><td>Jonathan Parker</td><td>Steve Lloyd</td><td>Hannah Garcia</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Simon Dancey</td><td>Charlotte Bishop</td><td>Martin Newell</td><td>Glenda Marie Davies</td><td>Ivan Westley</td><td>Aidan Dempsey</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>John Pettit</td><td>Steven Skivens</td><td>Fay Rossini-Bromfield</td><td>Barclay Nickels</td><td>Juliet Price</td><td>Jamie Payne</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Hero Marsden</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Tony Potts</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd</td><td>1</td><td>Mahaboob Basha</td><td>Sioned Williams</td><td>Tyler Chambers</td><td>James Evans</td><td>Jane Dodds</td><td>Nathan Goldup-John</td><td>Philip Owen (Gwlad) Jennifer Roberts (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Alex Sims</td><td>Rebeca Phillips</td><td>Elizabeth Hill-O'Shea</td><td>Iain McIntosh</td><td>William Powell</td><td>Charlotte Ajomale-Evans</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Sarah Thomas</td><td>Andrew Jenkins</td><td>Jane Lyons</td><td>David Mills</td><td>Jackie Charlton</td><td>Ami Dhaliwal</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Elliot Wigfall</td><td>Justin Horrell</td><td>Matthew Gilbert</td><td>Stephanie Moira Charles</td><td>Phoebe Jenkins</td><td>Eric Rosoman Matthews</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Cyriac George</td><td>Kate Heneghan</td><td>Hannah Jarvis</td><td>Dewi Thomas</td><td>Susan Grounds</td><td>Kathy Oakwood</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Chelsea Edwards</td><td></td><td>Amanda Davies</td><td>Celfyn Furlong</td><td>William Lloyd</td><td>Imogen da Silva</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Morgan Pritchard</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Peter Chapman</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf</td><td>1</td><td>Shav Taj</td><td>Dafydd Trystan</td><td>Joel James</td><td>Cai Parry-Jones</td><td>Rodney Berman</td><td>Paul Rock</td><td>Nikki Brooke (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Jackie Jones</td><td>Zaynub Akbar</td><td>Samantha Cohan</td><td>David Parsons</td><td>Joe Carter</td><td>Charlotte Husnjak</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Dan De'Ath</td><td>Nick Carter</td><td>Joe Roberts</td><td>Aaeron Giboney</td><td>Julie Goodfellow</td><td>Laurie Gray</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Sarah Merry</td><td>Andrea Gibson</td><td>Ffinian Elliott</td><td>Kenzie Hollingsworth Evans</td><td>Jon Shimmin</td><td>Jenny Mears</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Jen Burke</td><td>Joseff Gnagbo</td><td>Lyn Hudson</td><td>Jeffrey Armstrong</td><td>Imran Latif</td><td>Robyn Thomas</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Lee Bridgeman</td><td>Morgan Barber-Rogers</td><td>Jane Lucas</td><td>Valerie Ellis</td><td></td><td>David Fitzpatrick</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Matt Hexter</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Bernie Bowen-Thomson</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Caerdydd Penarth</td><td>1</td><td>Huw Thomas</td><td>Anna Brychan</td><td>Calum Davies</td><td>Joseph Martin</td><td>Cadan ap Tomos</td><td>Anthony Slaughter</td><td>Robert Griffiths (Communist) Neil McEvoy (Propel) Rhiannon Morrissey (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Ruba Sivanangam</td><td>Kiera Marshall</td><td>James Hamblin</td><td>Mark Reckless</td><td>Alex Wilson</td><td>Tessa Marshall</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Peter Bradbury</td><td>Leticia Gonzalez</td><td>Dominic Davies</td><td>Robert Thomas</td><td>Irfan Latif</td><td>Rowan Stranger</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Steve Brooks</td><td>Malcolm Phillips</td><td>Judith Child</td><td>Rachel Nugent Finn</td><td>Barry Southwell</td><td>Tavgar Bulbas</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Mutale Merrill</td><td>Matthew Hawkins</td><td>Archie Draycott</td><td>Paul Campbell</td><td>Elinor Dixon</td><td>Max O'Hara</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Kanaya Singh</td><td></td><td>Eddy Oko-Jaja</td><td>Ruth Hancock</td><td>Chris Cogger</td><td>Iwan Sinclair</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Helen Gunter</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Laura Rochefort</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Casnewydd Islwyn</td><td>1</td><td>Jayne Bryant</td><td>Peredur Owen Griffiths</td><td>Natasha Asghar</td><td>Dan Thomas</td><td>Mike Hamilton</td><td>Lauren James</td><td>Mikę Ford (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Rhianon Passmore</td><td>Lyn Ackerman</td><td>Toby Jones</td><td>Arthur Wright</td><td>John Miller</td><td>Phil Davies</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Chris Carter</td><td>Rhys Mills</td><td>Jake Enea</td><td>Marie-Claire Lea</td><td>Sarah Lockyer</td><td>Zaynab Greengrass</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Rhian Howells</td><td>Josh Rawcliffe</td><td>Georgina Webb</td><td>Nicholas Jones</td><td>Nurul Islam</td><td>Kerry Vosper</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Julie Sangani</td><td>Jonathan Clark</td><td>Adam Morris</td><td>Rebecca Senior</td><td>Harun Rashid</td><td>David Mayer</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Stephen Marshall</td><td>Sarah Henton</td><td>Rebecca Nyasha Mamhende</td><td>Tomos Llewellyn</td><td>Mary Lloyd</td><td>Andrew Were</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>David Chinnick</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Jeff Evans</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Ceredigion Penfro</td><td>1</td><td>Eluned Morgan</td><td>Elin Jones</td><td>Paul Davies</td><td>Susan Claire Archibald</td><td>Sandra Jervis</td><td>Amy Nicholass</td><td>Aaron Carey (Independent) Paul Dowson (Independent) Gwyn Wigley Evans (Gwlad) Elizabeth Davies (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Marc Tierney</td><td>Kerry Ferguson</td><td>Samuel Kurtz</td><td>Paul Marr</td><td>Alistair Cameron</td><td>Tomass Jerminovics</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Joshua Phillips</td><td>Anna Nicholl</td><td>Claire George</td><td>Michael Allen</td><td>Thomas Hughes</td><td>James Purchase</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Margaret Greenaway</td><td>Cris Tomos</td><td>Brian Murphy</td><td>Elisa Randall</td><td>Lee Herring</td><td>Morgan Phillips</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Tansaim Hussain-Gul</td><td>Colin Nosworthy</td><td>Gill Evans</td><td>Peter John</td><td>Tomos Roberts-Young</td><td>Rosie O'Toole</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Luke Davies-Jones</td><td>Clive Davies</td><td>Claire Jones</td><td>Bernard Holton</td><td>Andrew Lye</td><td>Kezia Hine</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Peter Huw Jenkins</td><td>Owain Jones</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Clwyd</td><td>1</td><td>Hannah Blythyn</td><td>Llyr Gruffydd</td><td>Darren Millar</td><td>Adrian Gwyn Mason</td><td>David Wilkins</td><td>Martyn Hogg</td><td>Robert Redhead (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Carolyn Thomas</td><td>Becca Martin</td><td>Gareth Davies</td><td>Louise Emery</td><td>Bobby Feeley</td><td>Carly Murdoch-Dyson</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Crispin Jones</td><td>Oliver Bradley-Hughes</td><td>Gareth Ffowcs Williams</td><td>Thomas Montgomery</td><td>Nanette Davies</td><td>Lucy Sutton</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Ellen Jones</td><td>Paul Penlington</td><td>Justine Evans</td><td>David Smith</td><td>Simon Croft</td><td>Karl McNaughton</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Rajeev Metri</td><td>Delyth Jones</td><td>Sylvia Clough-Hughes</td><td>Kristian Salkeld</td><td>Jason Higgins</td><td>David Blainey</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Catherine Claydon</td><td>Abdul Khan</td><td>Damon Richards-Gwilliam</td><td>Tony Thomas</td><td>Keith Kirwan</td><td>Cheryl Buxton-Sait</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Arran Fearn</td><td></td><td>Mike Gebreyohanes</td><td></td><td>Lisa Wilkins</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Cheryl Williams</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Fflint Wrecsam</td><td>1</td><td>Ken Skates</td><td>Carrie Harper</td><td>Sam Rowlands</td><td>Cristiana Emsley</td><td>Tim Sly</td><td>Lee Lavery</td><td>Kristina Renshaw (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Jack Sargeant</td><td>Marc Jones</td><td>Jeremy Kent</td><td>Nigel Williams</td><td>Richard Marbrow</td><td>Seki Tabasuares</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Corin Jarvis</td><td>Kayleigh Unitt</td><td>James Ecroyd</td><td>Robert Williams</td><td>Heather Prydderch</td><td>Graham Bannister-Kelly</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Norma Ann Davies</td><td>Dean Davies</td><td>Kathy Cracknell</td><td>William Paul Ashton</td><td>Lionel Prouve</td><td>Suzanne Glascott</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>George Stephen Thomas</td><td>Annette Davies</td><td>Alex Rooney</td><td>Michael Budden</td><td>Carole O'Toole</td><td>Kathryn Price</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Tracey Jane Sutton-Postlewaite</td><td>Andy Gallanders</td><td>Lewis Norton</td><td>David William Vernon</td><td>Graham Kelly</td><td>Helen Mitchell</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Richard James Brookes</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Mike Edwards</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Malcom Nicholls</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Gwynedd Maldwyn</td><td>1</td><td>Ian Parry</td><td>Siân Gwenllian</td><td>Aled Davies</td><td>Andrew Griffin</td><td>Glyn Preston</td><td>Nathan Jarvis</td><td>Jeremy Davies (Gwlad) Mattie Ginsberg (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Dawn McGuinness</td><td>Mabon ap Gwynfor</td><td>Henrietta Hensher</td><td>Claire Johnson Wood</td><td>Stephen Churchman</td><td>Nicole Wait</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Steffan Chambers</td><td>Beca Brown</td><td>Peter Lewington</td><td>Karl Lewis</td><td>Richard Church</td><td>Sue MacFarlane</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Dana Davies</td><td>Elwyn Vaughan</td><td>Hedd Thomas</td><td>Phillip Robinson</td><td>Pete Roberts</td><td>Sian Thomas</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Mathew Norman</td><td>Elin Hywel</td><td>Daniel Spilsbury</td><td>Mark Blake</td><td>Carol Robinson</td><td>Curtis Wilford</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Morgan Peters</td><td>Donna O'Brien</td><td>Roger Cracknell</td><td>Richard Pendry</td><td>Chris Lloyd</td><td>Edward Mason</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td></td><td>Victoria Evans</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td></td><td>Elfed ap Elwyn</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Gŵyr Abertawe</td><td>1</td><td>Mike Hedges</td><td>Gwyn Williams</td><td>Tom Giffard</td><td>Francesca O'Brien</td><td>Sam Bennett</td><td>Chris Evans</td><td>Christianne Galt (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Rob Stewart</td><td>Safa Elhassan</td><td>Tara-Jane Sutcliffe</td><td>Steven Rodaway</td><td>Helen Ceri Clarke</td><td>Lilian Martin</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Rebecca Fogarty</td><td>John Davies</td><td>Jake Harry</td><td>Wayne Parsons</td><td>Mike O'Carroll</td><td>Nigel Hill</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Rebecca Francis‑Davies</td><td>Rhiannon Barrar</td><td>Carley Morgan</td><td>Gareth Turner</td><td>Claire Walker</td><td>Carrie Jones</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Sara Faye</td><td>Dafydd Williams</td><td>Laura Gilbert</td><td>Scott Thorley</td><td>Chris Holley</td><td>David Halfacree</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Kemba Hadaway‑Morgan</td><td>Harri Roberts</td><td>Idin Ghotbi</td><td></td><td>Mary Jones</td><td>William Beasley</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Patience Bentu</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Victoria Holland</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg</td><td>1</td><td>Sarah Murphy</td><td>Mark Hooper</td><td>Andrew RT Davies</td><td>Paul Young</td><td>Steven Rajam</td><td>Amy Greenfield</td><td>Gill White (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Huw David</td><td>Sarah Rees</td><td>Altaf Hussain</td><td>Toby Rhodes-Matthews</td><td>Gabriela Ferguson</td><td>Saar Lenaerts</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Carys Stallard</td><td>Luke Fletcher</td><td>Jonathan Pratt</td><td>Emma Clatworthy</td><td>Paula Gülen Yates</td><td>Rob Sage</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Jonathan Cox</td><td>Marianne Cowpe</td><td>Kate Thomas</td><td></td><td>Wayne Street</td><td>Aaron Steer</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Jon-Paul Blundell</td><td>Ian Johnson</td><td>Rebekah Fudge</td><td></td><td>Joe Boyle</td><td>Todd Bailey</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Helen Payne</td><td>Iolo Cauldy</td><td>Michael Bryan</td><td></td><td>Matthew Dixon</td><td>Andy Roberts</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Rhys Goode</td><td>Dennis Clarke</td><td></td><td></td><td>Ashley Wood</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Neelo Farr</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr</td><td>1</td><td>Vikki Howells</td><td>Heledd Fychan</td><td>Adam Robinson</td><td>Jason O'Connell</td><td>Neil Feist</td><td>Angela Karadog</td><td>Beth Winter (Independent) Stef Morgan (Gwlad) Julie Lloyd (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Lloyd Watkins</td><td>Lis McLean</td><td>David William Jones</td><td>Gareth Thomas</td><td>David Seale</td><td>James Bennett</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Chris Binding</td><td>Sara Crowley</td><td>Roxanne Rees</td><td>Steve Bayliss</td><td></td><td>John Le Marchant Dane</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Mitch Theaker</td><td>Ian Gwynne</td><td>Lee Davies</td><td>Martin Roberts</td><td></td><td>Georgina Budd</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Mustapha Maohoub</td><td>Farrell Perks</td><td>Oliver Morgan</td><td>Mark Lawrence</td><td></td><td>Zara Siddique</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Matthew Dorrance</td><td>Ioan Bellin</td><td>Jayne McKenna</td><td>John Ball</td><td></td><td>Jeff Baxter</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Anna Williams Price</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Jane Gebbie</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Sir Fynwy Torfaen</td><td>1</td><td>Lynne Neagle</td><td>Matthew Jones</td><td>Peter Fox</td><td>Laura Anne Jones</td><td>Kevin Wilkins</td><td>Ian Chandler</td><td>Brad Williams (Gwlad) Emma Meredith (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Anthony Hunt</td><td>Donna Cushing</td><td>Richard John</td><td>Stephen Senior</td><td>Brendan Roberts</td><td>Emily Williams</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Laura Wright</td><td>Dave Johnson</td><td>Lisa Dymock</td><td>Bob Blacker</td><td></td><td>Charlie Aldous</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Catrin Maby</td><td>Loti Glyn</td><td>Nathan Edmunds</td><td>David Rowlands</td><td></td><td>Lauren Sellers</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Ben Callard</td><td>Huw Evans</td><td>Rachel Buckler</td><td>Mark Urrutia</td><td></td><td>Darren Share</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Nick Byrne</td><td></td><td>Chase Blount</td><td>Gerard Hancock</td><td></td><td>Angus Paget</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Su McConnel</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Sir Gaerfyrddin</td><td>1</td><td>Calum Higgins</td><td>Cefin Campbell</td><td>Richard Williams</td><td>Gareth Beer</td><td>Justin Griffiths</td><td>Rob James</td><td>Stephen Williams (Independent) Wayne Erasmus (Gwlad) Jason Barker (Heritage)</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Dawn Evans</td><td>Nerys Evans</td><td>Lee Stabbins</td><td>Carmelo Colasanto</td><td>Julian Tandy</td><td>Nick Pearce</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Martyn Palfreman</td><td>Adam Price</td><td>Oliver Wilson</td><td>Sarah Edwards</td><td>Jonathan Burree</td><td>Craig Davies</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>David Darkin</td><td>Mari Arthur</td><td>Bradley Williams</td><td>Christopher Brooke</td><td>Lynne Wilkins</td><td>David Lishman</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Lewis Davies</td><td>Iwan Griffiths</td><td>Natasha Rowlands</td><td>Alan Cole</td><td>Monica French</td><td>Helen Draper</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Andre McPherson</td><td>Abi Thomas</td><td>Ben Sansome</td><td>Michelle Beer</td><td>Caryl Tandy</td><td>Michael Willis</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td></td><td>Taylor Reynolds</td><td></td><td></td><td>Maggie Robinson</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td></td><td>Jordan Griffiths</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

Campaign

2026 Senedd election

According to Professor John Curtice campaign issues include the economy, cost of living, health and social care services and immigration.

On 2 February 2025, Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan said she would be open to a coalition with Plaid Cymru after the election "if needs must". She ruled out a coalition with Reform UK, as she thought there was a "red line on that one". She rejected the suggestion put to her that Welsh Labour was under threat at the election, explaining that there is "an international shift going on at the moment and we've got several months now to make sure people understand what's at stake here", and also called Reform an "English focused party" with "nothing Welsh about" them. This election has been described as pivotal for the premiership of Keir Starmer. Morgan warned that a "threat to the United Kingdom will become real" if Plaid and the Green Party gain a majority in the Senedd, calling for further devolution, calling it the "best way to lower the temperature and raise trust."

A day later, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth similarly ruled out working with Reform, describing the two parties' worldviews as "fundamentally different." In April 2025, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said his party "would work with any other Senedd party" and that the new voting system means "it's not going to be easy" to win an overall majority.

On 21 March 2025, Plaid Cymru announced a pledge to introduce a weekly direct child benefit titled the 'Cynnal' payment, which would share similarities to the Scottish Child Payment introduced by the Scottish Government. This was followed by a pledge on 10 October to expand universal childcare in Wales, bringing 20 hours of childcare a week for 48 weeks a year, eligible to all children aged 9 months to 4 years.

After becoming the most popular party in opinion polls in early 2025, ap Iorwerth ruled out holding an independence referendum in a first term of a Plaid Cymru government, in contrast to the party's (/wiki/2021Seneddelection) manifesto, stating that they still kept a "long term ambition" of Welsh independence.

Following the election of Zack Polanski as Green Party leader in September 2025, the party's popularity rose sharply. Their positive relationship with Plaid Cymru could lead to collaboration of some sort; however, ap Iorwerth said he would prefer a minority government over any coalition.

On 5 February 2026 Reform UK announced Dan Thomas as their leader in Wales, although he was an unknown figure in Wales having moved away in 1999 and was a Conservative Party councillor on Barnet London Borough Council from 2006 to 2025.

On 27 and 28 February Plaid Cymru held their spring conference, and announced their plan for first 100 days in government which announced many of their policies before their full manifesto.

On 1 March 2026, Eluned Morgan announced that if Welsh Labour wins the Senedd election they would spend £4 billion to build the "hospitals of the future".

On 2 March 2026, the Welsh Conservatives launched their manifesto. They proposed to build the M4 Relief Road, take 1 pence off the basic rate of income tax alongside scrapping business rates for small firms and re-establishing the Welsh Development Agency. The party also announced it's intention to reverse the 20mph national default speed limit, scrap the Nation of Sanctuary initiative, and place restrictions on wind farm developments.

On 3 March 2026, the Welsh Liberal Democrats called for £10 million for cross‑border healthcare in Powys.

On 5 March 2026, Reform UK launched their Welsh manifesto in Newport, where Nigel Farage called the election a referendum on the Prime Minister's leadership. The party pledged several policies that were similarly included in the Welsh Conservative manifesto, such as 1 pence income tax cuts, reversing of the default 20mph speed limit and scrapping the Nation of Sanctuary. The party also pledged to build the M4 relief road, intending to establish it as a toll road, make local people in Wales a priority for social housing, abolish Natural Resources Wales, as well as proposing a ban on any new onshore wind farms.

On 26 March 2026, the Welsh Conservatives launched their election campaign in Swansea.

On 27 March 2026, a leading Reform UK candidate - who was formerly a Conservative special adviser - stepped down from contesting the Senedd election after a photo was published appearing to show him performing a Nazi salute. Nigel Farage said the photo "looked terrible" and he "wouldn't approve of it" but that the candidate would not be kicked out of the party. The photo was published the day prior by Nation.Cymru and while the date of the photo has not be confirmed, Reform UK say it is from 2019.

On 30 March 2026, Eluned Morgan launched the Welsh Labour manifesto at an event in Swansea. Alongside their existing pledges the party committed to a freeze on the Welsh rates of income tax, pressing medical need being seen within 48 hours, extend free school meals to all secondary school pupils in receipt of universal credit, create 20,000 new childcare spaces and deliver 100,000 new homes over the next 10 years. On the same day Plaid Cymru launched their election campaign in Bedwas, with Rhun ap Iorwerth calling the election a two-horse race between Plaid and Reform for who will become the largest party.

On 31 March 2026, the Green Party election campaign was launched by Anthony Slaughter with the presence of Zack Polanski, where they also unveiled their full slate of candidates.

Opinion polling

2026 Senedd election

For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituencies used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.

Considering the polls from less than one year before the election, there have been 13 polls. Plaid Cymru have led in 6, while Reform UK have led in 5 and were tied in one of them, as well as Plaid and Reform UK being tied in 1, Labour has also led in 1. Of the polls with a sample size of 1,000 people or more, there have been 6, with Plaid leading in 5 of them, with Reform UK leading in 1.

LOESS curve of polling conducted

<table><thead><tr><th>Dates conducted</th><th>Pollster</th><th>Client</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Lab</th><th>Con</th><th>Plaid Cymru</th><th>Green</th><th>Lib Dems</th><th>Reform</th><th>Others</th><th>Lead</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2 - 22 Mar 2026</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>459</td><td>17%</td><td>9%</td><td>30%</td><td>11%</td><td>6%</td><td>27%</td><td>2%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>9 – 18 Mar 2026</td><td>YouGov</td><td>ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University</td><td>2,978</td><td>13%</td><td>7%</td><td>33%</td><td>12%</td><td>5%</td><td>27%</td><td>4%</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>15 Feb – 3 March 2026</td><td>More in Common</td><td>N/A</td><td>851</td><td>20%</td><td>10%</td><td>26%</td><td>10%</td><td>7%</td><td>26%</td><td>1%</td><td>Tie</td></tr><tr><td>30 Jan – 10 Feb 2026</td><td>More in Common</td><td>N/A</td><td>806</td><td>20%</td><td>13%</td><td>24%</td><td>5%</td><td>6%</td><td>31%</td><td>1%</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>486</td><td>20%</td><td>10%</td><td>29%</td><td>7%</td><td>5%</td><td>27%</td><td>1%</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>5 – 12 Jan 2026</td><td>YouGov</td><td>ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University</td><td>1,220</td><td>10%</td><td>10%</td><td>37%</td><td>13%</td><td>5%</td><td>23%</td><td>2%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>16 Dec 2025 – 4 Jan 2026</td><td>FindOutNow</td><td>N/A</td><td>1,503</td><td>12%</td><td>12%</td><td>30%</td><td>9%</td><td>7%</td><td>29%</td><td>2%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Cardiff University</td><td>1,891</td><td>10%</td><td>10%</td><td>33%</td><td>9%</td><td>6%</td><td>30%</td><td>2%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>10–30 Nov 2025</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>505</td><td>21%</td><td>12%</td><td>26%</td><td>9%</td><td>3%</td><td>27%</td><td>1%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>23 Oct 2025</td><td>2025 Caerphilly by-election, Plaid Cymru gain from Labour</td></tr><tr><td>22 Sep – 12 Oct 2025</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>533</td><td>23%</td><td>11%</td><td>22%</td><td>9%</td><td>4%</td><td>30%</td><td>2%</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>4–10 Sep 2025</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University</td><td>1,232</td><td>14%</td><td>11%</td><td>30%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>29%</td><td>4%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>400</td><td>27%</td><td>13%</td><td>21%</td><td>6%</td><td>5%</td><td>25%</td><td>2%</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025</td><td>More in Common</td><td>Sky News</td><td>883</td><td>23%</td><td>10%</td><td>26%</td><td>4%</td><td>7%</td><td>28%</td><td>2%</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>5–16 Jun 2025</td><td>FindOutNow</td><td>N/A</td><td>2,101</td><td>18%</td><td>11%</td><td>27%</td><td>7%</td><td>7%</td><td>29%</td><td>1%</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>23–30 Apr 2025</td><td>YouGov</td><td>ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University</td><td>1,265</td><td>18%</td><td>13%</td><td>30%</td><td>5%</td><td>7%</td><td>25%</td><td>2%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>10 Mar – 3 Apr 2025</td><td>Survation</td><td>N/A</td><td>809</td><td>27%</td><td>15%</td><td>24%</td><td>5%</td><td>5%</td><td>24%</td><td>1%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>3–23 Mar 2025</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>1,000</td><td>27%</td><td>16%</td><td>24%</td><td>5%</td><td>4%</td><td>23%</td><td>1%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>25–29 Nov 2024</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,121</td><td>23%</td><td>19%</td><td>24%</td><td>6%</td><td>5%</td><td>23%</td><td>1%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>4–24 Nov 2024</td><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>Nation.Cymru</td><td>500</td><td>27%</td><td>18%</td><td>17%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>24%</td><td>2%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024</td><td>Survation</td><td>Reform UK</td><td>2,006</td><td>29%</td><td>18%</td><td>20%</td><td>7%</td><td>7%</td><td>19%</td><td>1%</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>24 Jul – 6 Aug 2024</td><td>Eluned Morgan is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales</td></tr><tr><td>5–18 Jul 2024</td><td>Welsh Election Study</td><td>N/A</td><td>2,565</td><td>25%</td><td>16%</td><td>24%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>16%</td><td>8% AWA on 7% Other on 1%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>4 Jul 2024</td><td>2024 United Kingdom general election</td></tr><tr><td>27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,072</td><td>27%</td><td>18%</td><td>23%</td><td>5%</td><td>6%</td><td>18%</td><td>3%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>5–7 Jun 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>960</td><td>36%</td><td>22%</td><td>18%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>11%</td><td>2% AWA on 2% Other on 0%</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>30 May – 3 Jun 2024</td><td>YouGov</td><td>Barn Cymru</td><td>1,066</td><td>30%</td><td>19%</td><td>23%</td><td>6%</td><td>6%</td><td>12%</td><td>4%</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>18–19 May 2024</td><td>Redfield & Wilton</td><td>N/A</td><td>900</td><td>37%</td><td>20%</td><td>20%</td><td>5%</td><td>3%</td><td>10%</td><td>5% AWA on 5% Other on 0%</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>8 May 2024</td><td>The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.</td></tr><tr><td>6 May 2021</td><td>2021 Senedd election (regional)</td><td>–</td><td>36.2%</td><td>25.1%</td><td>20.7%</td><td>4.4%</td><td>4.3%</td><td>1.1%</td><td>8.2%</td><td>11.1</td></tr><tr><td>6 May 2021</td><td>2021 Senedd election (constituency)</td><td>–</td><td>39.9%</td><td>26.1%</td><td>20.3%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>5.6%</td><td>13.8</td></tr></tbody></table>

Seat projections

Ahead of the election, various modelling efforts have produced seat projections for the next Senedd election. Below are selected projections and the result of the previous election for comparison.

<table><thead><tr><th>Organisation</th><th>Last date</th><th>Lab</th><th>Con</th><th>Plaid Cymru</th><th>Green</th><th>Lib Dems</th><th>Reform</th><th>Others</th><th>Majority</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>2 - 22 Mar 2026</td><td>15</td><td>6</td><td>37</td><td>6</td><td>2</td><td>30</td><td>0</td><td>Hung (Plaid Cymru −12)</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov</td><td>9 – 18 Mar 2026</td><td>12</td><td>1</td><td>43</td><td>10</td><td>0</td><td>30</td><td>0</td><td>Hung (Plaid Cymru −6)</td></tr><tr><td>Beaufort Research</td><td>19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026</td><td>23</td><td>7</td><td>35</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>29</td><td>0</td><td>Hung (Plaid Cymru −14)</td></tr><tr><td>Election Maps UK</td><td>14 Jan 2026</td><td>8</td><td>8</td><td>44</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>27</td><td>0</td><td>Hung (Plaid Cymru −5)</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov</td><td>5 – 12 Jan 2026</td><td>8</td><td>6</td><td>45</td><td>11</td><td>3</td><td>23</td><td>0</td><td>Hung (Plaid Cymru −4)</td></tr><tr><td>Election Maps UK</td><td>7 Jan 2026</td><td>11</td><td>8</td><td>39</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>32</td><td>0</td><td>Hung (Plaid Cymru −10)</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov</td><td>28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025</td><td>8</td><td>6</td><td>39</td><td>5</td><td>3</td><td>35</td><td>0</td><td>Hung (Plaid Cymru −10)</td></tr><tr><td>Election Maps UK</td><td>17 December 2025</td><td>13</td><td>6</td><td>38</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>34</td><td>0</td><td>Hung (Plaid Cymru −11)</td></tr><tr><td>Election Maps UK</td><td>23 October 2025</td><td>20</td><td>8</td><td>29</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>36</td><td>0</td><td>Hung (Reform −13)</td></tr><tr><td>Cavendish Cymru/NationCymru–Beaufort</td><td>21 October 2025</td><td>24</td><td>7</td><td>25</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>37</td><td>0</td><td>Hung (Reform −12)</td></tr><tr><td>2021 election</td><td>6 May 2021</td><td>30</td><td>16</td><td>13</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>Hung (Labour −1, minority government)</td></tr></tbody></table>

Retiring members

2026 Senedd election

The following MSs have announced their intention to not run for re-election:

<table><thead><tr><th>MS</th><th>Constituency/Region</th><th>First elected</th><th>Party</th><th>Date announced</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Mark Drakeford</td><td>Cardiff West</td><td>2011</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>9 August 2023</td></tr><tr><td>Vaughan Gething</td><td>Cardiff South and Penarth</td><td>2011</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>7 September 2024</td></tr><tr><td>Lee Waters</td><td>Llanelli</td><td>2016</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>24 October 2024</td></tr><tr><td>Dawn Bowden</td><td>Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney</td><td>2016</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>17 January 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Mick Antoniw</td><td>Pontypridd</td><td>2011</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>24 January 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Joyce Watson</td><td>Mid and West Wales</td><td>2007</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>25 January 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Rebecca Evans</td><td>Gower</td><td>2011</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>8 February 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Julie Morgan</td><td>Cardiff North</td><td>2011</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>11 February 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Lesley Griffiths</td><td>Wrexham</td><td>2007</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>14 February 2025</td></tr><tr><td>John Griffiths</td><td>Newport East</td><td>1999</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>17 February 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Jane Hutt</td><td>Vale of Glamorgan</td><td>1999</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>21 February 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Julie James</td><td>Swansea West</td><td>2011</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>21 February 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Jenny Rathbone</td><td>Cardiff Central</td><td>2011</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>21 February 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Russell George</td><td>Montgomeryshire</td><td>2011</td><td></td><td>Independent (formerly Conservatives)</td><td>22 April 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Jeremy Miles</td><td>Neath</td><td>2016</td><td></td><td>Labour</td><td>19 September 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Mark Isherwood</td><td>North Wales</td><td>2003</td><td></td><td>Conservatives</td><td>26 March 2026</td></tr></tbody></table>