2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

The 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Pennsylvania. Primary elections will be held on May 19, 2026. Incumbent Democratic governor Josh Shapiro announced in January 2026 that he would run for re-election to a second term. This will be one of five Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2026 in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election.

Background

2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

Pennsylvania is a purple state located in the Northeastern United States. A part of the Rust Belt, it was narrowly won by Republican Donald Trump in his non-consecutive second victory in 2024 after similarly narrow victories by Democrat Joe Biden in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninPennsylvania) and Trump in his first election in (/wiki/2016UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninPennsylvania).

The state has a Democratic and Republican senator, making it one of only three states to have a split Senate delegation, while Republicans hold a majority in the state's House delegation, with ten seats to the Democrats' seven. Democrats also control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives while Republicans control the Pennsylvania Senate.

Republicans have not won a Pennsylvania gubernatorial election since (/wiki/2010Pennsylvaniagubernatorialelection). Incumbent Democratic governor Josh Shapiro was first elected with 56.5% of the vote in (/wiki/2022Pennsylvaniagubernatorialelection), succeeding term-limited Democrat Tom Wolf.

Democratic primary

Presumptive nominee

• Josh Shapiro, incumbent governor (2023–present)

Declined

• Bob Casey Jr., former U.S. senator (2007–2025) and son of former governor Bob Casey Sr.

Presumptive nominee

• Austin Davis, incumbent lieutenant governor (2023–present)

Republican primary

Presumptive nominee

• Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania state treasurer (2021–present) and candidate for Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district in (/wiki/2019Pennsylvania's12thcongressionaldistrictspecialelection)

Withdrawn

• John Ventre, former Pennsylvania director for the Mutual UFO Network and perennial candidate (running for lieutenant governor)

Declined

• Scott Martin, state senator from SD-13 (2017–present) and candidate for governor in (/wiki/2022Pennsylvaniagubernatorialelection) (endorsed Garrity) • Doug Mastriano, state senator from SD-33 (2019–present) and nominee for governor in (/wiki/2022Pennsylvaniagubernatorialelection) • Dan Meuser, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Garrity) • Dave Sunday, Pennsylvania attorney general (2025–present) (endorsed Garrity) • Glenn Thompson, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district (2009–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Garrity) • Mike Turzai, former speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2015–2020) from the 28th district (2001–2020)

Declared

• John Ventre, former Pennsylvania director for the Mutual UFO Network and perennial candidate (previously ran for governor) • Jason Richey, chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party and candidate for governor in (/wiki/2022Pennsylvaniagubernatorialelection)

Withdrawn

• Cris Dush, state senator from SD-25 (2021–present) (endorsed Richey) • Brian Thomas, businessman

Declined

• Tom DiBello, Montgomery County Commissioner

Libertarian convention

Nominee

• Ken Krawchuk, member of the Libertarian Party Judicial Committee and nominee for governor in (/wiki/1998Pennsylvaniagubernatorialelection), (/wiki/2002Pennsylvaniagubernatorialelection), and [[2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election|2018]

• John Thomas, educator and nominee for U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2024UnitedStatesSenateelectioninPennsylvania)

Green convention

Declared

• Tony Dastra, former Lancaster home rule commissioner and Green Party candidate for mayor in 2017 and 2025

Constitution convention

Declared

• Bill Messner, chair of the Lawrence County Constitution Party

• Marty Selker, nominee for U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2024UnitedStatesSenateelectioninPennsylvania)

General election

Predictions

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Solid D</td><td>March 11, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>Inside Elections</td><td>Likely D</td><td>August 28, 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Likely D</td><td>September 4, 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Race to the WH</td><td>Safe D</td><td>September 30, 2025</td></tr></tbody></table>

Polling

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Josh Shapiro (D)	Stacy Garrity (R)	Other/Undecided	Margin
270toWin	March 5 – April 1, 2026	April 1, 2026	53.0%	32.0%	15.0%	Shapiro +21.0%
Race to the WH	through April 1, 2026	April 1, 2026	54.4%	34.4%	11.2%	Shapiro +20.0%
RealClearPolitics	February 18 – March 29, 2026	April 1, 2026	53.7%	33.7%	12.6%	Shapiro +20.0%
Average	53.7%	33.4%	12.9%	Shapiro +20.3%

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Josh Shapiro (D)</th><th>Stacy Garrity (R)</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)</td><td>March 18–29, 2026</td><td>700 (LV)</td><td>± 3.7%</td><td>58%</td><td>36%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Franklin & Marshall College</td><td>February 18 – March 1, 2026</td><td>834 (RV)</td><td>± 4.1%</td><td>48%</td><td>28%</td><td>7%</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac University</td><td>February 19–23, 2026</td><td>836 (RV)</td><td>± 4.7%</td><td>55%</td><td>37%</td><td>1%</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac University</td><td>September 25–29, 2025</td><td>1,579 (RV)</td><td>± 3.3%</td><td>55%</td><td>39%</td><td>1%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)</td><td>September 22–28, 2025</td><td>700 (LV)</td><td>± 3.7%</td><td>54%</td><td>36%</td><td>–</td><td>9%</td></tr></tbody></table>