2026 Florida gubernatorial election

2026 Florida gubernatorial election

The 2026 Florida gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the next governor of Florida, alongside other state and local elections. The primary elections will take place on August 18, 2026. Incumbent Republican governor Ron DeSantis is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third consecutive term.

Democrats have not won a gubernatorial election in Florida since Lawton Chiles was re-elected in (/wiki/1994Floridagubernatorialelection).

Background

2026 Florida gubernatorial election

A heavily populated South Atlantic state with a large and increasingly conservative Latino American population and the northern parts lying in the Bible Belt, Florida is considered to be a moderately to strongly red state, having not elected a Democratic governor since 1994 nor a Democrat for president since (/wiki/2012UnitedStatespresidentialelection) and having moved significantly rightward in the last decade. In (/wiki/2022Floridagubernatorialelection), incumbent governor Ron DeSantis was re-elected by a 19.4% margin, a considerable improvement from his 0.4-point victory four years earlier in the gubernatorial election during the 2018 blue wave. This was followed two years later by Republican Donald Trump winning his adoptive home state by a 13% margin as he won a second non-consecutive presidential term, improving his 3.4% margin of victory in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninFlorida) and seemingly diminishing Florida's longtime swing-state and bellwether status. Republicans also control all statewide offices, a large majority of the state's U.S. House delegation, both U.S. Senate seats, and supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature.

Candidate eligibility and requirements

Article IV, Section 5(b) of the Florida Constitution states that, for a person to serve as governor, they must:

• Be at least thirty years old; • Be a permanent resident of Florida for at least seven years; • Not have served as governor for six years or more of the two prior terms.

Republican primary

Declared

• Charles Burkett, mayor of Surfside (2006–2010, 2020–2022, 2024–present) • Jay Collins, 21st lieutenant governor of Florida (2025–present) • Byron Donalds, U.S. representative for Florida's 19th congressional district (2021–present) • James Fishback, CEO of Azoria • Paul Renner, 103rd speaker of the Florida House of Representatives (2022–2024) from the 19th district (2015–2024) • Bobby Williams, activist and food bank volunteer

Withdrawn

• Bill Reicherter, real estate agent, candidate for state house in (/wiki/2024FloridaHouseofRepresentativeselection#District90), and candidate for state senate in (/wiki/2022FloridaSenateelection#District30)

Potential

• Casey DeSantis, former WJXT newscaster and First Lady of Florida (2019–present)

Declined

• Matt Gaetz, former U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–2024) • Francis Suarez, 43rd mayor of Miami (2017–2025) and candidate for president in (/wiki/2024RepublicanPartypresidentialprimaries)

Debates

Date	Host	Moderators	Location	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
Key:  P  Participant   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn  A  Absent   N  Not invited
Byron Donalds	James Fishback	Jay Collins	Paul Renner
July 21, 2026	Fox News	TBA	Tampa	I	I	N	N

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Jay Collins</th><th>Byron Donalds</th><th>James Fishback</th><th>Paul Renner</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The American Promise</td><td>February 23–26, 2026</td><td>800 (LV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>4%</td><td>44%</td><td>5%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>45%</td></tr><tr><td>The Public Sentiment Institute</td><td>February 20, 2026</td><td>– (LV)</td><td>–</td><td>12%</td><td>30%</td><td>8%</td><td>2%</td><td>2%</td><td>46%</td></tr><tr><td>– (RV)</td><td>7%</td><td>29%</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td><td>1%</td><td>57%</td></tr><tr><td>– (A)</td><td>7%</td><td>27%</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td><td>1%</td><td>59%</td></tr><tr><td>University of North Florida</td><td>February 16–20, 2026</td><td>657 (LV)</td><td>± 4.38%</td><td>4%</td><td>31%</td><td>6%</td><td>1%</td><td>6%</td><td>51%</td></tr><tr><td>3%</td><td>28%</td><td>4%</td><td>1%</td><td>28%</td><td>36%</td></tr><tr><td>Targoz Market Research</td><td>February 13–16, 2026</td><td>401 (RV)</td><td>–</td><td>15%</td><td>33%</td><td>3%</td><td>9%</td><td>–</td><td>40%</td></tr><tr><td>Patriot Polling (R)</td><td>January 19–29, 2026</td><td>827 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>–</td><td>37%</td><td>23%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>40%</td></tr><tr><td>Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy</td><td>January 8–13, 2026</td><td>400 (RV)</td><td>± 5.0%</td><td>7%</td><td>37%</td><td>3%</td><td>4%</td><td>–</td><td>49%</td></tr><tr><td>Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)</td><td>January 4–6, 2026</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>6%</td><td>45%</td><td>4%</td><td>3%</td><td>–</td><td>41%</td></tr><tr><td>–</td><td>39%</td><td>3%</td><td>1%</td><td>26%</td><td>31%</td></tr><tr><td>–</td><td>47%</td><td>5%</td><td>4%</td><td>–</td><td>43%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Opinion Strategies (R)</td><td>December 7–11, 2025</td><td>700 (RV)</td><td>± 3.7%</td><td>13%</td><td>40%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>9%</td><td>38%</td></tr><tr><td>The Tyson Group (R)</td><td>December 8–9, 2025</td><td>800 (LV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>9%</td><td>38%</td><td>2%</td><td>1%</td><td>–</td><td>49%</td></tr><tr><td>The American Promise</td><td>November 17–19, 2025</td><td>800 (LV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>1%</td><td>43%</td><td>0%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>54%</td></tr><tr><td>Victory Insights (R)</td><td>November 11–13, 2025</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>–</td><td>1%</td><td>45%</td><td>1%</td><td>3%</td><td>–</td><td>49%</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>October 13–15, 2025</td><td>1,034 (LV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>4%</td><td>39%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>–</td><td>54%</td></tr><tr><td>12%</td><td>52%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>36%</td></tr><tr><td>Targoz Market Research</td><td>September 16–18, 2025</td><td>506 (RV)</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>29%</td><td>–</td><td>9%</td><td>–</td><td>62%</td></tr><tr><td>The American Promise</td><td>September 4–5, 2025</td><td>800 (LV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>2%</td><td>40%</td><td>–</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>54%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Democratic primary

Declared

• Jerry Demings, mayor of Orange County (2018–present) and husband of former U.S. representative Val Demings • David Jolly, former Republican U.S. representative from Florida's 13th congressional district (2014–2017) • Dayna Marie Foster, mathematics teacher

Declined

• Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party (2023–present), former Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2019–2023), and candidate for governor in (/wiki/2022Floridagubernatorialelection) • Fentrice Driskell, minority leader of the state House of Representatives (2022–present) (running for state senate) • Gwen Graham, former Assistant Secretary of Education (2021–2025), former U.S. representative from Florida's 2nd congressional district (2015–2017), daughter of former governor Bob Graham, and candidate for governor in (/wiki/2018Floridagubernatorialelection) (endorsed Jolly) • Shevrin Jones, state senator from the 34th district (2020–present) • Daniella Levine Cava, mayor of Miami-Dade County (2020–present) • Jared Moskowitz, U.S. representative from Florida's 23rd congressional district (2023–present) (running for re-election) • Angie Nixon, state representative from the 13th district (2020–present) (running for U.S. Senate)

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Jerry Demings</th><th>David Jolly</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Targoz Market Research</td><td>February 20–22, 2026</td><td>471 (RV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>23%</td><td>31%</td><td>2%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>The Public Sentiment Institute</td><td>February 20, 2026</td><td>– (LV)</td><td>–</td><td>16%</td><td>22%</td><td>9%</td><td>53%</td></tr><tr><td>– (RV)</td><td>18%</td><td>22%</td><td>8%</td><td>52%</td></tr><tr><td>– (A)</td><td>18%</td><td>21%</td><td>8%</td><td>53%</td></tr><tr><td>Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy</td><td>January 8–13, 2026</td><td>400 (RV)</td><td>± 5.0%</td><td>19%</td><td>23%</td><td>–</td><td>58%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Polling (D)</td><td>December 2–3, 2025</td><td>616 (LV)</td><td>–</td><td>22%</td><td>22%</td><td>–</td><td>56%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Independent and third-party candidates

Declared

• Moliere Dimanche, author and candidate for mayor of Orlando in 2023 • Jason Pizzo, former Democratic minority leader of the Florida Senate (2024–2025) from the 37th district (2018–present)

General election

Predictions

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Race to the WH</td><td>Lean R</td><td>February 27, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Solid R</td><td>September 11, 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Safe R</td><td>September 4, 2025</td></tr><tr><td>Inside Elections</td><td>Solid R</td><td>August 28, 2025</td></tr></tbody></table>

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Byron Donalds (R)	Jerry Demings (D)	Other	Undecided
University of North Florida	February 21 – March 2, 2026	786 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	36%	5%	16%
University of North Florida	October 15–25, 2025	728 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%	33%	5%	17%

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Byron Donalds (R)</th><th>David Jolly (D)</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>University of North Florida</td><td>February 21 – March 2, 2026</td><td>786 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>42%</td><td>36%</td><td>5%</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Targoz Market Research</td><td>February 13–16, 2026</td><td>1,129 (LV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>41%</td><td>36%</td><td>6%</td><td>12%</td></tr><tr><td>University of North Florida</td><td>October 15–25, 2025</td><td>728 (LV)</td><td>± 4.3%</td><td>45%</td><td>34%</td><td>3%</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>Targoz Market Research</td><td>September 16–18, 2025</td><td>1,118 (RV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>36%</td><td>32%</td><td>4%</td><td>28%</td></tr><tr><td>Bendixen & Amandi International (D)</td><td>September 7–9, 2025</td><td>631 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>40%</td><td>41%</td><td>–</td><td>19%</td></tr><tr><td>AIF Center (R)</td><td>August 25–27, 2025</td><td>800 (LV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>49%</td><td>41%</td><td>–</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Victory Insights (R)</td><td>June 7–10, 2025</td><td>600 (LV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>37%</td><td>31%</td><td>–</td><td>32%</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Paul Renner (R)</th><th>David Jolly (D)</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Targoz Market Research</td><td>September 16–18, 2025</td><td>1,123 (RV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>34%</td><td>33%</td><td>5%</td><td>28%</td></tr><tr><td>Bendixen & Amandi International (D)</td><td>September 7–9, 2025</td><td>631 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>42%</td><td>40%</td><td>–</td><td>18%</td></tr></tbody></table>