2026 Farrer by-election
In the intricate dance of Australian federal politics, by-elections often offer a potent snapshot of public sentiment, especially between national elections. The upcoming 2026 Farrer by-election is no exception, triggered by the sudden resignation of a prominent Liberal MP following a dramatic leadership spill. This electoral contest in a traditionally conservative heartland will not only test the new leadership of both the Liberal and National parties but also gauge the growing influence of independent voices in regional Australia, promising a captivating political spectacle. The by-election was triggered by Sussan Ley's resignation from parliament, a direct consequence of her losing the Liberal Party leadership. Farrer, a traditionally safe Liberal seat, faces an unpredictable future after a significant swing towards an independent candidate in the 2025 federal election. The election features a diverse field of candidates, including a strong independent and a re-energized One Nation, making it a crucial test for the major parties' standing in regional electorates.
AI Summary
In the intricate dance of Australian federal politics, by-elections often offer a potent snapshot of public sentiment, especially between national elections. The upcoming 2026 Farrer by-election is no exception, triggered by the sudden resignation of a prominent Liberal MP following a dramatic leadership spill. This electoral contest in a traditionally conservative heartland will not only test the new leadership of both the Liberal and National parties but also gauge the growing influence of independent voices in regional Australia, promising a captivating political spectacle.
- The by-election was triggered by Sussan Ley's resignation from parliament, a direct consequence of her losing the Liberal Party leadership.
- Farrer, a traditionally safe Liberal seat, faces an unpredictable future after a significant swing towards an independent candidate in the 2025 federal election.
- The election features a diverse field of candidates, including a strong independent and a re-energized One Nation, making it a crucial test for the major parties' standing in regional electorates.
The Farrer By-election: A Political Snapshot
On May 9, 2026, voters in the New South Wales division of Farrer will head to the polls for a by-election. This special election aims to fill a vacant seat in the Australian House of Representatives, following a significant shift in the nation's political landscape.
The catalyst for this unexpected electoral contest was the resignation of Sussan Ley, a long-serving Liberal Member of Parliament and former Deputy Leader of the Opposition. Her departure sent ripples through the political establishment, setting the stage for a compelling local battle with national implications.
Ley's decision came swiftly after a leadership spill within the Liberal party room on February 13, 2026. In a decisive vote, she was defeated by Angus Taylor, prompting her to announce her intention to step down from parliament within weeks. It marked the end of an era for the seasoned politician.
Her official retirement was submitted on February 27, 2026. Less than a week later, on March 5, the Speaker of the House, Milton Dick, formally announced that the by-election would be held on May 9, giving parties and candidates a tight window to prepare.
This by-election holds particular significance as it's the first since the 2025 federal election and the first under the new leadership of both the Liberal Party's Angus Taylor and the Nationals' Matt Canavan. For Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, it will be the fifth by-election during his tenure, always a test for the sitting government.
Key Dates Unfold
The by-election process follows a strict timetable, ensuring fairness and logistical order for all involved. From the formal announcement to the final count, each step is carefully regulated to uphold democratic principles.
Issue of writ — April 1, 2026 Close of roll — April 8, 2026 Close of nominations — April 13, 2026 Polling day — May 9, 2026 Return of writ — On or before July 10, 2026
The Contested Ground: Farrer
Farrer is a sprawling electorate nestled in the far south-western corner of New South Wales, encompassing a vibrant mix of agricultural lands and regional hubs. Its towns include Albury, Griffith, Narrandera, and Deniliquin, forming a diverse community with deep roots in primary industries.
Historically, Farrer has been a bastion of conservative support, considered a safe seat for the Liberal Party since Sussan Ley first won it in 2001. Prior to that, it was a stronghold for the National Party, reflecting the region's strong rural traditions.
However, the political landscape in Farrer shifted dramatically in the 2025 federal election. The Liberal Party experienced a significant 10% swing against it on the two-candidate preferred vote, narrowly holding onto the seat with a reduced margin of 56.19% against a strong independent challenge. This makes the by-election a far more open contest than in previous decades.
A Crowded Field
Media outlets have characterized the Farrer by-election as an intense 'four-way race,' highlighting the strong competition between the Liberal Party, the Nationals, One Nation, and a formidable independent candidate. This diverse field promises a truly engaging electoral battle.
Liberal Contender
The Liberal Party has preselected Raissa Butkowski, a lawyer and City of Albury councillor, as their candidate. Her background includes work for the Hume Riverina Community Legal Service and membership in the Murray-Darling Association, indicating a focus on local and water management issues vital to the region.
Nationals' Comeback
In a significant move, the National Party is contesting Farrer for the first time since 2001, allowed due to the unique circumstances of a Liberal MP's resignation. They have selected Brad Robertson, an Australian Army veteran and former commander, as their candidate, signaling a strong play for the rural vote.
One Nation's Play
Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has also thrown its hat into the ring, announcing their intention to contest the by-election early on. After a selection process involving numerous hopefuls, David Farley, an agricultural businessman from Narrandera, emerged as their chosen candidate.
Farley, a former CEO of the Australian Agricultural Company and a newly elected chair of the 'Speak Up 4 Water' lobby group, brings significant regional experience. However, his campaign has already faced scrutiny as past controversial comments, likening a former Prime Minister to a 'non-productive old cow,' resurfaced from 2012.
The Independent Challenge
Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe, a teacher and advocate for child abuse victims, is once again contesting the seat. She achieved a strong second-place showing in 2025, backed by community groups like 'Voices of Farrer' and the influential fundraising organization Climate 200, making her a formidable contender.
Other Voices
Several other parties are also presenting candidates to voters. Rebecca Scriven will run for Family First, Richard Hendrie for the Greens, and Lucas James Ellis for the Sustainable Australia Party. People First also announced their intention to contest, though their candidate is yet to be revealed. The Australian Labor Party is yet to confirm if they will field a candidate.
Those Not Running
Despite widespread speculation, independent state MP Helen Dalton, who represents the nearby electorate of Murray, confirmed she would not contest the by-election, despite receiving numerous approaches. Similarly, prominent local businessman Darren De Bortoli also declined offers from multiple parties to run, leaving the field open for the announced candidates.
Campaign Trail Buzz
As the campaign heats up, candidates are already facing intense media scrutiny and strategic maneuvers. One Nation's David Farley quickly found himself defending past controversial comments, describing his 2012 remarks about former Prime Minister Julia Gillard as merely 'tongue-in-cheek.'
Early opinion polling conducted in March 2026 indicated a tight contest for primary votes. The uComms poll showed One Nation leading with 28.7%, followed by Michelle Milthorpe (Independent) at 23.3%, the Liberal candidate at 19.1%, and the Nationals at 5.2%. These figures highlight the significant shift in voter preference since the 2025 federal election results.
Key Endorsements
Michelle Milthorpe has garnered high-profile support from federal independents, including Senator David Pocock and MP Helen Haines, who publicly endorsed her at a campaign event in Albury. Even Katter's Australian Party MP Bob Katter voiced his support for Milthorpe, emphasizing the importance of an independent crossbench to balance power.
The Power of Preferences
In Australia's preferential voting system, 'how-to-vote cards' play a crucial role, guiding voters on how to rank candidates. These preference flows, often decided through agreements between parties, are expected to be a key determinant of the Farrer by-election's outcome.
The Liberal and National parties have confirmed they will direct their second preferences to each other, maintaining their traditional Coalition alliance. However, a notable public call came from Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg, urging his party to preference One Nation last, highlighting internal party tensions regarding preference deals.
Meanwhile, independent Michelle Milthorpe has chosen not to direct voter preferences, a stance she also took in the 2025 election, allowing her supporters to decide for themselves. Family First, taking a moral stand, also announced it would not preference One Nation, citing the candidate's views on women.
Article
2026 Farrer by-election
A by-election will be held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. The election follows the resignation of former opposition leader and then Liberal MP Sussan Ley.
It will be the first by-election since the 2025 federal election, the first during Angus Taylor's leadership of the Liberals, the first during Matt Canavan's leadership of the Nationals, and the fifth during Anthony Albanese's tenure as prime minister.
Key dates
2026 Farrer by-election
• Issue of writ — 1 April 2026 • Close of roll — 8 April 2026 • Close of nominations — 13 April 2026 • Polling day — 9 May 2026 • Return of writ — On or before 10 July 2026
Background
Resignation
A leadership spill of the Liberal party room was held on 13 February 2026, where Sussan Ley was defeated by Angus Taylor 34 votes to 17 for the leadership of the party. Following the defeat, Ley fronted a press conference where she announced that she would resign from parliament "in the next couple of weeks".
On 27 February 2026, Ley officially submitted her retirement. On 5 March 2026, the Speaker of the House, Milton Dick, announced the by-election would be held on 9 May 2026.
Seat details
Farrer is located in the far south-western area of New South Wales and includes the towns of Albury, Corowa, Narrandera, Leeton, Griffith, Deniliquin, Hay, Balranald and Wentworth. A conservative seat, the seat has historically been a safe Liberal seat since Ley first won it in (/wiki/2001Australianfederalelection), though the Liberal Party suffered a 10% swing against it on the two-candidate preferred vote against an independent candidate in (/wiki/2025Australianfederalelection), and won the seat on a reduced margin of 56.19% to 43.81%.
<table><thead><tr><th>Election</th><th>1990</th><th>1993</th><th>1996</th><th>1998</th><th>2001</th><th>2004</th><th>2007</th><th>2010</th><th>2013</th><th>2016</th><th>2019</th><th>2022</th><th>2025</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> </td><td>Labor</td><td>32.21%</td><td>32.57%</td><td>28.77%</td><td>35.38%</td><td>—N/a</td><td>30.18%</td><td>38.83%</td><td>35.49%</td><td>32.57%</td><td>29.47%</td><td>30.17%</td><td>33.65%</td><td>37.11%</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>Liberal</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>50.14%</td><td>69.82%</td><td>61.17%</td><td>64.51%</td><td>67.43%</td><td>70.53%</td><td>69.83%</td><td>66.35%</td><td>62.89%</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>National</td><td>67.79%</td><td>67.43%</td><td>71.23%</td><td>64.62%</td><td>49.86%</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td></tr><tr><td>Government</td><td>ALP</td><td>ALP</td><td>L/NP</td><td>L/NP</td><td>L/NP</td><td>L/NP</td><td>ALP</td><td>ALP</td><td>L/NP</td><td>L/NP</td><td>L/NP</td><td>ALP</td><td>ALP</td></tr></tbody></table>
Candidates
2026 Farrer by-election
Media have characterised the by-election as a four-way race between the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation and independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe.
<table><thead><tr><th>Party</th><th>Candidate</th><th>Background</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> </td><td>Family First</td><td>Rebecca Scriven</td><td>School worker and eighth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>Greens</td><td>Richard Hendrie</td><td>Mental health worker and fifth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>Independent</td><td>Michelle Milthorpe</td><td>Teacher, business owner and second-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>Liberal</td><td>Raissa Butkowski</td><td>Lawyer and City of Albury councillor</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>Nationals</td><td>Brad Robertson</td><td>Australian Army veteran and former commander, Albury branch chair</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>One Nation</td><td>David Farley</td><td>Former CEO of AACo and irrigation specialist</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>People First</td><td>TBA</td><td></td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>Sustainable Australia</td><td>Lucas James Ellis</td><td>Working in the planning sector</td></tr></tbody></table>
Liberal
On 23 February, The Australian reported that "the right faction of the Liberal Party has gained control of candidate preselection in a bid to stem the leakage of votes to One Nation". State Liberal MP Justin Clancy publicly expressed interest in running as the Liberals candidate; shortly after taking office as leader of the Liberal Party Angus Taylor called Clancy to discuss the by-election. On 27 February, Justin Clancy ruled out contesting Farrer. Nominations for Liberal preselection in Farrer closed on 2 March. Media reported former Susan Ley staffer Lachlan McIntyre, and Albury councillor and lawyer Raissa Butkowski as candidates. The Liberal Party held their preselection vote on 15 March.
On 15 March, the Liberal Party preselected lawyer for the Hume Riverina Community Legal Service and City of Albury councillor Raissa Butkowski to contest the by-election. Butkowski is also a member of the Murray-Darling Association, an organisation that advocates for local government and water issues.
National
The National Party will contest Farrer for the first time since losing the seat in (/wiki/2001Australianfederalelection), since Coalition rules in New South Wales forbid parties from running a candidate in a sitting Coalition MP's seat. Media reported former Nationals senator Perin Davey, Albury mayor Kevin Mack, the party's branch chairman Brad Robertson and Murray Irrigation Ltd director Gabrielle Coupland as potential candidates. Marty Corboy, the Nationals candidate for neighbouring Indi in (/wiki/2016Australianfederalelection), endorsed Perin Davey. The Nationals selected Robertson as their candidate on 8 March. Robertson is an Australian Army veteran and former commander.
One Nation
On 13 February, party leader Pauline Hanson announced that One Nation will contest the by-election. On 27 February, One Nation announced that David Farley, Leigh Wolki and Guy Cooper were the three candidates seeking pre-selection, following a process that assessed 80 candidates. On 7 March, David Farley won preselection as the One Nation candidate. Hanson said it was the first time a branch had selected its own candidate.
Farley is a Narrandera-based agricultural businessman. He was formerly the CEO of Australian Agricultural Company. He was recently elected chair of the lobby group Speak Up 4 Water. He became a member of One Nation before Sussan Ley resigned.
Independent
Michelle Milthorpe was an independent candidate in the 2025 election and was supported by the community group Voices of Farrer and the Climate 200 fundraising organisation. On 13 February, she announced her intention to contest the by-election.
Milthorpe is a teacher from Jindera and an advocate for child abuse victims.
Other candidates
Family First will run Rebecca Scriven, an independent Christian school worker who ran for the party in 2025.
The Greens will contest the by-election. They will run Richard Hendrie, a mental health worker who ran for the party in 2025.
On 14 February, Gerard Rennick announced that People First will contest the by-election.
On 23 February, Anthony Albanese said the Australian Labor Party would decide whether to contest the by-election "once Sussan Ley actually resigns."
The Sustainable Australia Party is contesting Farrer for the first time since (/wiki/2019Australianfederalelection).
Not contesting
Helen Dalton, independent state MP for the electoral district of Murray, was viewed as a potential challenger for the seat, with Dalton claiming that her mobile phone had "been burning up" since Ley's resignation. Dalton was also approached to run for the seat as a One Nation candidate. On 5 March, Dalton confirmed that she would not be a candidate.
Darren De Bortoli, the managing director of De Bortoli Wines, said he was approached to run by multiple parties but declined all offers.
Jordi Queiruga planed to run as an independent, but has decided not to contest the seat.
Campaign
2026 Farrer by-election
The media resurfaced comments made by One Nation candidate David Farley in 2012 where he likened then–Prime Minister Julia Gillard to a "non-productive old cow". Farley and Pauline Hanson described the comments as tongue-in-cheek.
Opinion polling
2026 Farrer by-election
<table><thead><tr><th>Date</th><th>Firm</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Primary vote</th><th>2CP vote</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>LIB</td><td>NAT</td><td>Milthorpe (IND)</td><td>ALP</td><td>ONP</td><td>GRN</td><td>OTH</td><td>UND</td><td>LIB</td><td>Milthorpe (IND)</td></tr><tr><td>5–6 Mar 2026</td><td>uComms</td><td>1,281</td><td>±2.73%</td><td>19.1%</td><td>5.2%</td><td>23.3%</td><td>9.0%</td><td>28.7%</td><td>3.9%</td><td>2.2%</td><td>8.6%</td><td>—N/a</td><td>—N/a</td></tr><tr><td>27 Feb 2026</td><td>Sussan Ley resigns as an MP</td></tr><tr><td>3 May 2025</td><td>2025 federal election</td><td>43.4%</td><td>—</td><td>20.0%</td><td>15.1%</td><td>6.6%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>10.0%</td><td>—</td><td>56.2%</td><td>43.8%</td></tr></tbody></table>
Endorsements
Michelle Milthorpe
Michelle Milthorpe was endorsed by David Pocock, independent senator for the Australian Capital Territory, and Helen Haines, independent MP for the neighbouring electorate of Indi, at a campaign event in Albury on 6 March. Katter's Australian MP Bob Katter also endorsed Milthorpe at the Albury Gold Cup, emphasising the importance of an independent crossbench holding the balance of power. He recognised "soft" support for One Nation, attributing it to a protest vote against the major parties, though also acknowledged Pauline Hanson's "excellent work in opposing migration".
One Nation
Reignite Democracy, a group founded by anti-lockdown protester Monica Smit, has endorsed One Nation.
How-to-vote cards
2026 Farrer by-election
Political parties recommend to voters how they should preference candidates through "how-to-vote cards" distributed by campaign volunteers near polling places. Parties often make agreements between themselves about these recommendations. Preferences are expected to play a key role in the by-election.
The Liberals will recommended preferences be directed to the Nationals second, and the Nationals will recommend preferences be directed to the Liberals second. On 5 March, Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg publicly urged his party to preference One Nation last.
Michelle Milthorpe will not ask voters to direct preferences, just as she did not at the last election.
Family First has said it will not give its second preferences to One Nation over the candidate’s view of women.