2026 Arizona gubernatorial election
The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Arizona. The primary elections will take place on July 21, 2026. Incumbent Democratic governor Katie Hobbs is running for re-election to a second term.
Article
2026 Arizona gubernatorial election
The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Arizona. The primary elections will take place on July 21, 2026. Incumbent Democratic governor Katie Hobbs is running for re-election to a second term.
Following the passage of Proposition 131 in the 2022 elections, this will be the first gubernatorial election in Arizona in which candidates will be required to nominate a running mate for the newly established position of lieutenant governor. This will be one of five Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2026 in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election.
Background
2026 Arizona gubernatorial election
Arizona is considered to be a purple state at both the federal and statewide level. After Joe Biden carried the state narrowly in the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the state of Arizona by 5.5 points in the 2024 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats in Arizona and hold the governorship and secretary of state office. Meanwhile, Republicans maintain a majority in the Arizona Senate and Arizona House of Representatives, and control 6 of the 9 House of Representatives seats in the state. Democrats have characterized this race as key to establishing a Democratic trifecta in Arizona for the first time in 60 years.
Democratic primary
Presumptive nominee
• Katie Hobbs, incumbent governor (2023–present)
Declined
• Adrian Fontes, secretary of state of Arizona (2023–present) (running for re-election) • Kris Mayes, attorney general of Arizona (2023–present) (running for re-election)
Republican primary
Declared
• Andy Biggs, U.S. representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present) • Ken Miceli, business owner • Scott Neely, concrete pumping contractor, candidate for governor in (/wiki/2022Arizonagubernatorialelection), and candidate for mayor of Mesa in (/wiki/2024Mesamayoralelection) • David Schweikert, U.S. representative from Arizona's 1st congressional district (2011–present)
Withdrawn
• Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for governor in (/wiki/2022Arizonagubernatorialelection)
Declined
• Juan Ciscomani, U.S. representative from Arizona's 6th congressional district (2023–present) (running for re-election) • Jake Hoffman, state senator from the 15th district (2023–present) and 2020 fake elector for Donald Trump (endorsed Biggs) • Kari Lake, senior advisor to the U.S. Agency for Global Media (2025–present), nominee for governor in (/wiki/2022Arizonagubernatorialelection), and nominee for U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2024UnitedStatesSenateelectioninArizona) • Kimberly Yee, state treasurer of Arizona (2019–present) and candidate for governor in (/wiki/2022Arizonagubernatorialelection) (running for superintendent of public instruction)
Polling
<table><thead><tr><th>Source of poll aggregation</th><th>Dates administered</th><th>Dates updated</th><th>Andy Biggs</th><th>Karrin Taylor Robson</th><th>David Schweikert</th><th>Undecided</th><th>Margin</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>270toWin</td><td>October 26-November 10, 2025</td><td>January 1, 2026</td><td>46.5%</td><td>18.0%</td><td>5.0%</td><td>30.5%</td><td>Biggs +28.5%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Andy Biggs</th><th>Karrin Taylor Robson</th><th>David Schweikert</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Noble Predictive Insights</td><td>February 23–26, 2026</td><td>384 (RV)</td><td>± 5.0%</td><td>40%</td><td>–</td><td>19%</td><td>–</td><td>41%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>February 12, 2026</td><td>Taylor Robson suspends her campaign.</td></tr><tr><td>Center for Excellence in Polling</td><td>January 22–24, 2026</td><td>– (LV)</td><td>–</td><td>28%</td><td>19%</td><td>12%</td><td>–</td><td>41%</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>November 8–10, 2025</td><td>381 (RV)</td><td>± 5.0%</td><td>50%</td><td>17%</td><td>8%</td><td>1%</td><td>24%</td></tr><tr><td>GrayHouse (R)</td><td>October 26–28, 2025</td><td>397 (LV)</td><td>± 3.6%</td><td>43%</td><td>19%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>36%</td></tr><tr><td>Pulse Decision Science (R)</td><td>September 8–10, 2025</td><td>502 (LV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>48%</td><td>26%</td><td>11%</td><td>–</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>55%</td><td>31%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>61%</td><td>–</td><td>23%</td><td>–</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>Kreate Strategies (R)</td><td>August 19–21, 2025</td><td>679 (RV)</td><td>–</td><td>65%</td><td>14%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>21%</td></tr><tr><td>Noble Predictive Insights</td><td>August 11–18, 2025</td><td>385 (RV)</td><td>± 5.0%</td><td>27%</td><td>37%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>36%</td></tr><tr><td>NextGen P (R)</td><td>June 17–18, 2025</td><td>1,380 (LV)</td><td>± 2.6%</td><td>49%</td><td>26%</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Kreate Strategies (R)</td><td>May 23–25, 2025</td><td>1,147 (LV)</td><td>± 2.9%</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>Pulse Decision Science (R)</td><td>April 6–9, 2025</td><td>511 (LV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>45%</td><td>16%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>39%</td></tr><tr><td>NicoPAC (R)</td><td>April 2–6, 2025</td><td>477 (RV)</td><td>± 4.5%</td><td>66%</td><td>15%</td><td>–</td><td>4%</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>NicoPAC (R)</td><td>January 24–26, 2025</td><td>512 (RV)</td><td>± 4.3%</td><td>71%</td><td>14%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>15%</td></tr></tbody></table>
Independents
Declared
• Leezah Sun, former state representative from the 22nd district (2023–2024) (served in the legislature as a Democrat)
Green primary
Filed paperwork
• Lisa Castillo • William Pounds, streamer/recording artist and candidate for governor in (/wiki/2022Arizonagubernatorialelection)
No Labels Primary
Declared
• Teri Hourihan, therapist (No Labels Party) • Hugh Lytle, health care entrepreneur (No Labels Party)
General election
Predictions
<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Tossup</td><td>March 11, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>Inside Elections</td><td>Tossup</td><td>January 16, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Lean D</td><td>March 19, 2026</td></tr><tr><td>Race to the WH</td><td>Tilt D</td><td>March 12, 2026</td></tr></tbody></table>
Polling
<table><thead><tr><th>Source of poll aggregation</th><th>Dates administered</th><th>Dates updated</th><th>Katie Hobbs (D)</th><th>Andy Biggs (R)</th><th>Other/Undecided</th><th>Margin</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Race to the WH</td><td>February 12, 2025 – March 4, 2026</td><td>March 6, 2026</td><td>44.4%</td><td>37.7%</td><td>17.9%</td><td>Hobbs +6.7%</td></tr><tr><td>RealClearPolitics</td><td>August 11, 2025 – February 26, 2026</td><td>March 4, 2026</td><td>43.0%</td><td>40.0%</td><td>17.0%</td><td>Hobbs +3.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>43.7%</td><td>38.85%</td><td>17.45%</td><td>Hobbs +4.85%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Katie Hobbs (D)</th><th>Andy Biggs (R)</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Noble Predictive Insights</td><td>February 23–26, 2026</td><td>1,023 (RV)</td><td>± 3.1%</td><td>42%</td><td>37%</td><td>5%</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>Center for Excellence in Polling</td><td>January 22–24, 2026</td><td>519 (LV)</td><td>± 4.3%</td><td>50%</td><td>41%</td><td>–</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>NextGen P (R)</td><td>December 15–17, 2025</td><td>2,725 (LV)</td><td>± 1.9%</td><td>51%</td><td>32%</td><td>7%</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>November 8–10, 2025</td><td>850 (RV)</td><td>± 3.3%</td><td>44%</td><td>43%</td><td>–</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>Noble Predictive Insights</td><td>August 11–18, 2025</td><td>948 (RV)</td><td>± 3.2%</td><td>39%</td><td>37%</td><td>4%</td><td>20%</td></tr><tr><td>Noble Predictive Insights</td><td>May 12–16, 2025</td><td>1,026 (RV)</td><td>± 3.1%</td><td>40%</td><td>38%</td><td>5%</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Pulse Decision Science (R)</td><td>April 6–9, 2025</td><td>501 (LV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>46%</td><td>42%</td><td>–</td><td>12%</td></tr><tr><td>Noble Predictive Insights</td><td>February 11–13, 2025</td><td>1,006 (RV)</td><td>± 3.1%</td><td>40%</td><td>38%</td><td>5%</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Kreate Strategies (R)</td><td>February 5–7, 2025</td><td>924 (LV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>43%</td><td>44%</td><td>–</td><td>13%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Katie Hobbs (D)</th><th>David Schweikert (R)</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Noble Predictive Insights</td><td>February 23–26, 2026</td><td>1,023 (RV)</td><td>± 3.1%</td><td>44%</td><td>35%</td><td>5%</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>Center for Excellence in Polling</td><td>January 22–24, 2026</td><td>519 (LV)</td><td>± 4.3%</td><td>51%</td><td>38%</td><td>–</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>November 8–10, 2025</td><td>850 (RV)</td><td>± 3.3%</td><td>44%</td><td>39%</td><td>–</td><td>17%</td></tr></tbody></table>