2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.

New Hampshire was considered a potential battleground state due to the closeness of previous elections. In recent years, the state has shown a much more pronounced Democratic lean at the federal level, as at the time of the 2024 election, New Hampshire's congressional delegation was entirely Democratic since 2017. As such, most news organizations generally considered the state to be leaning toward Kamala Harris.

However, on election night, New Hampshire was seriously contested by both candidates, and was one of the last states called in favor of Harris. She won the state by about 2.8%, a significantly lower margin than Biden in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire), though moderately better than Hillary Clinton in (/wiki/2016UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire). This was Harris' narrowest victory in any state.

New Hampshire had the closest presidential race out of any state in terms of the margin of raw votes, although the state closest in difference of percentage was Wisconsin.

Trump is the only Republican president in American history to have never won New Hampshire in any of their elections.

Primary elections

2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

New Hampshire has held the famous "first-in-the-nation" primary since 1920. Delegates are elected separately from a non-binding poll, which dates from 1952. Candidates qualify by presenting a check for $1000 to the Secretary of State's office by a certain date.

Primary elections for both the Democratic and Republican parties were held on January 23, 2024.

Democratic primary

On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, in which the South Carolina Democratic primary would be held first on February 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on February 6. New Hampshire Republican governor Chris Sununu, Democratic senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, and the state legislature vowed to continue holding the "first-in-the-nation" primary (as New Hampshire state law establishes) and ultimately did set an earlier date of January 23.

Showing solidarity with the DNC, Biden declined to appear on the state's primary ballot. Pro-Biden New Hampshire Democrats nevertheless launched a formal write-in campaign for him, but none of the state's delegates to the Democratic National Convention will still be binding.

Popular vote share by county   Biden

<table><thead><tr><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>Percentage</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Joe Biden (incumbent; write-in)</td><td>79,100</td><td>63.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Dean Phillips</td><td>24,377</td><td>19.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Marianne Williamson</td><td>5,016</td><td>4.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican)</td><td>4,760</td><td>3.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Donald Trump (write-in) (Republican)</td><td>2,079</td><td>1.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Derek Nadeau</td><td>1,616</td><td>1.3%</td></tr><tr><td>"Ceasefire" (write-in)</td><td>1,512</td><td>1.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Vermin Supreme</td><td>912</td><td>0.7%</td></tr><tr><td>John Vail</td><td>685</td><td>0.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent)</td><td>439</td><td>0.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Donald Picard</td><td>371</td><td>0.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Paperboy Prince</td><td>326</td><td>0.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Paul V. LaCava</td><td>176</td><td>0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Jason Michael Palmer</td><td>142</td><td>0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>President R. Boddie</td><td>136</td><td>0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Mark Stewart Greenstein</td><td>133</td><td>0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent)</td><td>125</td><td>0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Terrisa Bukovinac</td><td>101</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Gabriel Cornejo</td><td>86</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Stephen P. Lyons</td><td>80</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Frankie Lozada</td><td>73</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Tom Koos</td><td>71</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato</td><td>68</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Star Locke</td><td>59</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Raymond Michael Moroz</td><td>52</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Eban Cambridge</td><td>47</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Chris Christie (write-in) (Republican)</td><td>41</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Richard Rist</td><td>37</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Ron DeSantis (write-in) (Republican)</td><td>33</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Vivek Ramaswamy (write-in) (Republican)</td><td>2</td><td><0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Other write-ins, reported as "scatter".</td><td>1,341</td><td>1.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Total:</td><td>123,996</td><td>100.00%</td></tr></tbody></table>

No delegates were awarded from the January New Hampshire primary.

Republican primary

The New Hampshire Republican primary was held on January 23, 2024, as the second contest of the Republican primaries, held about a week after the Iowa caucuses. 22 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the statewide vote. The primary was won by Donald Trump, who defeated Nikki Haley by eleven points.

Popular vote share by county   Trump   Haley

<table><thead><tr><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>Percentage</th><th>Delegate count</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Donald Trump</td><td>176,391</td><td>54.35%</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>Nikki Haley</td><td>140,491</td><td>43.28%</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)</td><td>2,241</td><td>0.69%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Chris Christie (withdrawn)</td><td>1,493</td><td>0.46%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)</td><td>833</td><td>0.26%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Joe Biden (write-in) (Democrat)</td><td>497</td><td>0.15%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Mike Pence (withdrawn)</td><td>404</td><td>0.12%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Ryan Binkley</td><td>315</td><td>0.10%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Mary Maxwell</td><td>287</td><td>0.09%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Robert F. Kennedy (write-in) (Independent)</td><td>205</td><td>0.06%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Tim Scott (withdrawn)</td><td>196</td><td>0.06%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Doug Burgum (withdrawn)</td><td>180</td><td>0.06%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)</td><td>108</td><td>0.03%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Rachel Swift</td><td>105</td><td>0.03%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Scott Ayers</td><td>80</td><td>0.02%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Dean Phillips (write-in) (Democrat)</td><td>79</td><td>0.02%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Darius Mitchell</td><td>74</td><td>0.02%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Glenn McPeters</td><td>49</td><td>0.02%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>"Ceasefire" (write-in)</td><td>34</td><td>0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Perry Johnson (withdrawn)</td><td>26</td><td>0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Peter Jedick</td><td>25</td><td>0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>David Stuckenberg</td><td>25</td><td>0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Donald Kjornes</td><td>23</td><td>0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Scott Merrell</td><td>21</td><td>0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>John Anthony Castro</td><td>19</td><td>0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Robert Carney</td><td>15</td><td><0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Marianne Williamson (write-in) (Democrat)</td><td>14</td><td><0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Hirsh Singh (withdrawn)</td><td>9</td><td><0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Sam Sloan</td><td>7</td><td><0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Vermin Supreme (write-in) (Democrat)</td><td>3</td><td><0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Mark Steward Greenstein (write-in) (Democrat)</td><td>1</td><td><0.01%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Other write-in votes</td><td>325</td><td>0.10%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Total:</td><td>324,575</td><td>100.00%</td><td>22</td></tr></tbody></table>

General election

Predictions

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Cook Political Report</td><td>Likely D</td><td>August 27, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>Inside Elections</td><td>Lean D</td><td>May 8, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Likely D</td><td>August 20, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>Decision Desk HQ/The Hill</td><td>Likely D</td><td>November 5, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>CNalysis</td><td>Solid D</td><td>November 4, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>CNN</td><td>Lean D</td><td>August 27, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>The Economist</td><td>Likely D</td><td>October 21, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>538</td><td>Likely D</td><td>September 12, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov</td><td>Safe D</td><td>November 1, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>Split Ticket</td><td>Likely D</td><td>November 1, 2024</td></tr></tbody></table>

Polling

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Undecided	Margin
270ToWin	October 24 – November 3, 2024	November 3, 2024	50.5%	45.5%	4.0%	Harris +5.0%
538	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	50.3%	45.4%	4.3%	Harris +4.9%
Silver Bulletin	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	50.9%	46.3%	2.8%	Harris +4.6%
The Hill/DDHQ	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	53.3%	42.5%	4.2%	Harris +10.8%
Average	51.3%	44.9%	3.8%	Harris +6.4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Dartmouth College	November 1–3, 2024	587 (LV)	± 4.0%	62%	34%	4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)	October 24–28, 2024	901 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	47%	5%
Praecones Analytica/NHJournal	October 24–26, 2024	622 (RV)	–	50%	50%	–
CES/YouGov	October 1–25, 2024	380 (A)	–	52%	45%	3%
375 (LV)	52%	45%	3%
Emerson College	October 21–23, 2024	915 (LV)	± 3.2%	50%	47%	3%
51%	47%	2%
Dartmouth College	October 5–18, 2024	2,211 (RV)	± 2.1%	59%	38%	3%
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
	August 22, 2024	Democratic National Convention concludes
University of New Hampshire	August 15–19, 2024	2,048 (LV)	± 2.2%	52%	47%	1%
	August 19, 2024	Democratic National Convention begins
	August 6, 2024	Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Emerson College	July 26–28, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	46%	4%
52%	48%	–
University of New Hampshire	July 23–25, 2024	2,875 (LV)	± 1.8%	53%	46%	1%
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
	July 15–19, 2024	Republican National Convention
	July 13, 2024	attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Trafalgar Group (R)	December 10–12, 2021	1,041 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	48%	6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire	October 29 – November 2, 2024	2,814 (LV)	± 1.9%	51%	46%	–	0%	1%	2%
Saint Anselm College	October 28–29, 2024	2,791 (LV)	± 2.6%	51%	46%	0%	0%	1%	2%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov	October 10–23, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.4%	50%	43%	–	1%	1%	5%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov	October 2–10, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.8%	50%	41%	–	1%	1%	7%
Saint Anselm College	October 1–2, 2024	2,104 (LV)	± 2.1%	51%	44%	0%	1%	1%	3%
University of New Hampshire	September 12–16, 2024	1,695 (LV)	± 2.4%	54%	43%	–	0%	1%	2%
Saint Anselm College	September 11–12, 2024	2,241 (LV)	± 2.1%	51%	43%	0%	1%	1%	4%

Results

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic		418,488	50.65%	−2.13%
	Republican		395,523	47.87%	+2.45%
	Libertarian		4,425	0.54%	−1.10%
	Green		3,680	0.45%	+0.42%
	Write-in	4,073	0.49%	+0.37%
Total votes	826,189	100.00%	N/A

By county

County	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Various candidates Other parties	Margin	Total
#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Belknap	17,469	42.95%	22,765	55.97%	442	1.09%	-5,296	-13.02%	40,676
Carroll	16,822	48.54%	17,426	50.28%	410	1.18%	-604	-1.74%	34,658
Cheshire	24,579	54.15%	20,083	44.25%	727	1.60%	4,496	9.90%	45,389
Coos	7,367	42.53%	9,734	56.19%	221	1.28%	-2,367	-13.66%	17,322
Grafton	32,993	59.03%	21,909	39.20%	993	1.78%	11,084	19.83%	55,895
Hillsborough	118,776	50.66%	112,057	47.80%	3,607	1.54%	6,719	2.86%	234,440
Merrimack	48,181	51.82%	43,364	46.64%	1,433	1.54%	4,817	5.18%	92,978
Rockingham	97,611	48.10%	102,539	50.53%	2,772	1.37%	-4,928	-2.43%	202,922
Strafford	42,373	55.25%	33,162	43.24%	1,153	1.50%	9,211	12.01%	76,688
Sullivan	12,317	48.84%	12,484	49.50%	420	1.67%	-167	-0.66%	25,221
Totals	418,488	50.65%	395,523	47.87%	12,178	1.47%	22,965	2.78%	826,189

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Carroll (largest city: Conway) • Rockingham (largest city: Derry) • Sullivan (largest city: Claremont)

By congressional district

District	Harris	Trump	Representative
1st	50.29%	48.30%	Chris Pappas
2nd	51.01%	47.44%	Maggie Goodlander

Analysis

2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

A rural New England state with a libertarian streak dominated by moderate voters, New Hampshire had backed Republicans in most presidential elections since the party's formation in 1854 up until (/wiki/1988UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire), except for Woodrow Wilson in (/wiki/1912UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire) and (/wiki/1916UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire); Franklin D. Roosevelt in (/wiki/1936UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire), (/wiki/1940UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire) and (/wiki/1944UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire); and Lyndon B. Johnson in (/wiki/1964UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire). Since the early 1990s, however, the state has begun to lean toward the Democrats at the federal level, with Democrats carrying the state by single digits in every presidential election since (/wiki/1992UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire) with the exception of George W. Bush's narrow victory in (/wiki/2000UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire).

A study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research in July 2024 found that New Hampshire is one of only three remaining states (along with Mississippi and Alabama) to offer no early in-person voting option for the 2024 general election. The state also requires an eligible reason to vote by mail. By tradition, since (/wiki/1960UnitedStatespresidentialelection), all eligible voters of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire cast their votes at midnight on Election Day.

Harris suffered a setback, earning 2.35% of the vote less than Biden did in 2020. She ceded ground in every county across the state, while Trump flipped three counties: Carroll, Rockingham and Sullivan. He nonetheless became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Hillsborough County since Richard Nixon in (/wiki/1968UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninNewHampshire). This is the first time since 2016 in which the state winner did not win a majority of the counties, Harris and Trump both won 5.

Notably, on the same ballot, Republicans won the open governor race and expanded their majorities in both state legislative chambers.

The towns of Acworth, Berlin, Claremont, Francestown, Freedom, Greenfield, Hart's Location, Jaffrey, Langdon, Littleton, Lyndeborough, Martin's Location, Nottingham, Pembroke, Shelburne, Springfield, Stratford, Sullivan, Swanzey, Tamworth, and Temple all flipped to Trump after either backing Joe Biden, yielding a tie, or recording no votes in 2020.

Success and Wolfeboro both flipped to Harris after either backing Trump, yielding a tie, or recording no votes in 2020.