2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts
The 2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. Massachusetts voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Eleven members of the Electoral College came from Massachusetts.
Article
2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts
The 2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. Massachusetts voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Eleven members of the Electoral College came from Massachusetts.
A New England state, Massachusetts has been a Democratic leaning state since (/wiki/1928UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts), and a Democratic stronghold since (/wiki/1960UnitedStatespresidentialelection), and is considered a deeply blue state today. Democrats have consistently defeated Republicans by large margins in Massachusetts since (/wiki/1996UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts). In (/wiki/2020UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts), Joe Biden won the state by more than 33%, the largest margin since Lyndon B. Johnson in (/wiki/1964UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts).
Kamala Harris won Massachusetts along with every county in the state. She defeated Donald Trump by 25 points. This was an eight-point shift toward the Republican Party from 2020, and Harris's margin was smaller than that for Hillary Clinton in (/wiki/2016UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts). Despite Harris winning over 60% of the vote in the state and every county there, Massachusetts had one of the largest swings of any state, swinging by more than the national swing of about 6%.
This was part of a trend of blue states, such as New York, New Jersey, California (Harris's home state), and Illinois, which all swung significantly towards Republicans.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
<table><thead><tr><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>%</th><th>Delegates</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Joe Biden (incumbent)</td><td>533,096</td><td>80.45</td><td>91</td></tr><tr><td>No Preference</td><td>60,236</td><td>9.09</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Dean Phillips</td><td>29,728</td><td>4.49</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Marianne Williamson</td><td>20,402</td><td>3.08</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Cenk Uygur (write-in)</td><td>82</td><td>0.01</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Other candidates</td><td>10,135</td><td>1.53</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Blank ballots</td><td>8,930</td><td>1.35</td><td>—</td></tr><tr><td>Total</td><td>662,609</td><td>100%</td><td>92</td></tr></tbody></table>
Republican primary
The Massachusetts Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
<table><thead><tr><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>Percentage</th><th>Actual delegate count</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Bound</td><td>Unbound</td><td>Total</td></tr><tr><td>Donald Trump</td><td>343,189</td><td>59.56%</td><td>40</td><td>0</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>Nikki Haley</td><td>211,440</td><td>36.69%</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>No Preference</td><td>5,717</td><td>0.99%</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Chris Christie (withdrawn)</td><td>5,217</td><td>0.91%</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)</td><td>3,981</td><td>0.69%</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)</td><td>1,738</td><td>0.30%</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Other candidates</td><td>1,674</td><td>0.29%</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)</td><td>619</td><td>0.11%</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)</td><td>527</td><td>0.09%</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Blank ballots</td><td>2,148</td><td>0.37%</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Total:</td><td>576,250</td><td>100.00%</td><td>40</td><td>0</td><td>40</td></tr></tbody></table>
Libertarian primary
The Massachusetts Libertarian primary was held on March 5, 2024.
<table><thead><tr><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>Percentage</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>No Preference</td><td>3,982</td><td>36.45%</td></tr><tr><td>Chase Oliver</td><td>1,453</td><td>13.30%</td></tr><tr><td>Jacob Hornberger</td><td>1,089</td><td>9.97%</td></tr><tr><td>Michael Rectenwald</td><td>546</td><td>5.00%</td></tr><tr><td>Lars Mapstead</td><td>399</td><td>3.65%</td></tr><tr><td>Mike ter Maat</td><td>314</td><td>2.87%</td></tr><tr><td>All Others</td><td>2,161</td><td>19.78%</td></tr><tr><td>Blank ballots</td><td>980</td><td>8.97%</td></tr><tr><td>Total:</td><td>10,924</td><td>100.00%</td></tr><tr><td>Source:</td></tr></tbody></table>
General election
Predictions
<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Solid D</td><td>December 19, 2023</td></tr><tr><td>Inside Elections</td><td>Solid D</td><td>April 26, 2023</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Safe D</td><td>June 29, 2023</td></tr><tr><td>Decision Desk HQ/The Hill</td><td>Safe D</td><td>December 14, 2023</td></tr><tr><td>CNalysis</td><td>Solid D</td><td>December 30, 2023</td></tr><tr><td>CNN</td><td>Solid D</td><td>January 14, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>The Economist</td><td>Safe D</td><td>June 12, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>538</td><td>Solid D</td><td>June 11, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>RCP</td><td>Solid D</td><td>June 26, 2024</td></tr><tr><td>NBC News</td><td>Safe D</td><td>October 6, 2024</td></tr></tbody></table>
Polling
<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Kamala Harris Democratic</th><th>Donald Trump Republican</th><th>Other / Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>ActiVote</td><td>October 2–30, 2024</td><td>400 (LV)</td><td>± 4.9%</td><td>66%</td><td>34%</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>October 24–26, 2024</td><td>1,000 (LV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>59%</td><td>36%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>60%</td><td>37%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>ActiVote</td><td>September 6 – October 16, 2024</td><td>400 (LV)</td><td>± 4.9%</td><td>67%</td><td>33%</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>MassINC Polling Group</td><td>September 12–18, 2024</td><td>800 (LV)</td><td>± 4.1%</td><td>63%</td><td>35%</td><td>2%</td></tr></tbody></table>
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Kamala Harris Democratic</th><th>Donald Trump Republican</th><th>Cornel West Independent</th><th>Jill Stein Green</th><th>Chase Oliver Libertarian</th><th>Other / Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>University of New Hampshire</td><td>October 29 – November 2, 2024</td><td>744 (LV)</td><td>± 3.6%</td><td>60%</td><td>34%</td><td>–</td><td>2%</td><td>1%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov</td><td>October 3–10, 2024</td><td>700 (A)</td><td>± 4.8%</td><td>56%</td><td>30%</td><td>–</td><td>2%</td><td>1%</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Suffolk University</td><td>October 1–4, 2024</td><td>500 (LV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>61%</td><td>32%</td><td>–</td><td>1%</td><td>0%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>University of New Hampshire</td><td>September 12–16, 2024</td><td>546 (LV)</td><td>± 4.1%</td><td>62%</td><td>31%</td><td>–</td><td>2%</td><td>0%</td><td>5%</td></tr></tbody></table>
Results
<table><thead><tr><th>Party</th><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>%</th><th>±%</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td></td><td>2,126,518</td><td>61.22%</td><td>4.38</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td></td><td>1,251,303</td><td>36.02%</td><td>3.88</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Green-Rainbow</td><td></td><td>26,545</td><td>0.76%</td><td>0.25</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Independent</td><td></td><td>18,418</td><td>0.53%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Libertarian</td><td></td><td>17,735</td><td>0.51%</td><td>0.78</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Socialism and Liberation</td><td></td><td>12,889</td><td>0.37%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Write-in</td><td>20,260</td><td>0.58%</td><td>0.13</td></tr><tr><td>Total votes</td><td>3,473,668</td><td>100.00%</td><td>N/A</td></tr></tbody></table>
By county
<table><thead><tr><th>County</th><th>Kamala Harris Democratic</th><th>Donald Trump Republican</th><th>Various candidates Other parties</th><th>Margin</th><th>Total</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>#</td><td>%</td><td>#</td><td>%</td><td>#</td><td>%</td><td>#</td><td>%</td></tr><tr><td>Barnstable</td><td>88,129</td><td>59.23%</td><td>57,451</td><td>38.61%</td><td>3,205</td><td>2.15%</td><td>30,678</td><td>20.62%</td><td>148,785</td></tr><tr><td>Berkshire</td><td>47,094</td><td>68.58%</td><td>19,805</td><td>28.84%</td><td>1,775</td><td>2.58%</td><td>27,289</td><td>39.74%</td><td>68,674</td></tr><tr><td>Bristol</td><td>137,786</td><td>49.56%</td><td>134,196</td><td>48.27%</td><td>6,035</td><td>2.17%</td><td>3,590</td><td>1.29%</td><td>278,017</td></tr><tr><td>Dukes</td><td>9,137</td><td>74.84%</td><td>2,745</td><td>22.48%</td><td>327</td><td>2.68%</td><td>6,392</td><td>52.36%</td><td>12,209</td></tr><tr><td>Essex</td><td>236,624</td><td>58.88%</td><td>155,336</td><td>38.66%</td><td>9,891</td><td>2.46%</td><td>81,288</td><td>20.22%</td><td>401,851</td></tr><tr><td>Franklin</td><td>28,305</td><td>67.00%</td><td>12,428</td><td>29.42%</td><td>1,515</td><td>3.59%</td><td>15,877</td><td>37.58%</td><td>42,248</td></tr><tr><td>Hampden</td><td>110,937</td><td>53.18%</td><td>92,474</td><td>44.33%</td><td>5,193</td><td>2.49%</td><td>18,463</td><td>8.85%</td><td>208,604</td></tr><tr><td>Hampshire</td><td>58,617</td><td>69.19%</td><td>23,256</td><td>27.45%</td><td>2,847</td><td>3.36%</td><td>35,361</td><td>41.74%</td><td>84,720</td></tr><tr><td>Middlesex</td><td>554,471</td><td>68.05%</td><td>235,118</td><td>28.85%</td><td>25,243</td><td>3.10%</td><td>319,353</td><td>39.20%</td><td>814,832</td></tr><tr><td>Nantucket</td><td>4,784</td><td>67.21%</td><td>2,171</td><td>30.50%</td><td>163</td><td>2.29%</td><td>2,613</td><td>36.71%</td><td>7,118</td></tr><tr><td>Norfolk</td><td>242,712</td><td>62.81%</td><td>132,497</td><td>34.29%</td><td>11,238</td><td>2.91%</td><td>110,215</td><td>28.52%</td><td>386,447</td></tr><tr><td>Plymouth</td><td>159,962</td><td>53.30%</td><td>133,544</td><td>44.50%</td><td>6,623</td><td>2.21%</td><td>26,418</td><td>8.80%</td><td>300,129</td></tr><tr><td>Suffolk</td><td>222,280</td><td>74.29%</td><td>66,480</td><td>22.22%</td><td>10,433</td><td>3.49%</td><td>155,800</td><td>52.07%</td><td>299,193</td></tr><tr><td>Worcester</td><td>225,680</td><td>53.63%</td><td>183,802</td><td>43.67%</td><td>11,359</td><td>2.70%</td><td>41,878</td><td>9.96%</td><td>420,841</td></tr><tr><td>Totals</td><td>2,126,518</td><td>61.22%</td><td>1,251,303</td><td>36.02%</td><td>95,847</td><td>2.76%</td><td>875,215</td><td>25.20%</td><td>3,473,668</td></tr></tbody></table>
By congressional district
<table><thead><tr><th>District</th><th>Harris</th><th>Trump</th><th>Representative</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1st</td><td>55.53%</td><td>41.97%</td><td>Richard Neal</td></tr><tr><td>2nd</td><td>60.26%</td><td>36.71%</td><td>Jim McGovern</td></tr><tr><td>3rd</td><td>58.13%</td><td>39.25%</td><td>Lori Trahan</td></tr><tr><td>4th</td><td>58.44%</td><td>38.85%</td><td>Jake Auchincloss</td></tr><tr><td>5th</td><td>70.85%</td><td>25.97%</td><td>Katherine Clark</td></tr><tr><td>6th</td><td>59.04%</td><td>38.47%</td><td>Seth Moulton</td></tr><tr><td>7th</td><td>79.43%</td><td>16.77%</td><td>Ayanna Pressley</td></tr><tr><td>8th</td><td>61.72%</td><td>35.49%</td><td>Stephen Lynch</td></tr><tr><td>9th</td><td>54.29%</td><td>43.58%</td><td>Bill Keating</td></tr></tbody></table>
Analysis
2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts
Harris's 25.20% margin was similar to those of other 21st century Democratic nominees, but below Hillary Clinton's 27.20% margin in (/wiki/2016UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts) and Joe Biden's 33.46% margin in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts), and she did win every county in the state.
But despite remaining strongly Democratic, Massachusetts shifted significantly rightward in this election, with all of its counties shifting rightward. It had one of the largest swings of any state, swinging by 8%, which was more than the national swing of 6%. Per the Fox News exit poll, Harris did better among voters making over $100,000 a year in Massachusetts (66–32%) than all other groups making less than $100,000 a year. Relatedly, Harris won voters with graduate degrees in Massachusetts in a landslide (75–22%), better than all other educational groups.
This was despite the state being one of the most liberal, and Harris winning every county in the state. This also suggests that Harris's loss was not simply due to her policy positions or messaging being perceived as too left-wing. This was part of all 50 states and D.C. shifting rightward, the first time they all swung in the same direction since (/wiki/1976UnitedStatespresidentialelection), despite Harris losing the popular vote by just 1.5%. No county flipped Democratic, the first time since (/wiki/1932UnitedStatespresidentialelection) that the losing candidate did not flip a single county.
Many of the bluest states shifted significantly rightward. Even D.C. shifted moderately rightward by 3%, despite giving Harris over 90% of the vote. (Harris also lived in D.C. at the time, as the incumbent vice president.) Massachusetts shifted by about as much as the red states of Texas (by 8%) and Florida (by 10%), as well as the blue states of California (by 9%), New Jersey (by 10%), and New York (by 11%). By contrast, some blue states only narrowly shifted rightward, including Washington (state) (by 1%), Oregon (by 2%), Maine (by 2%), and Colorado (by 2.5%).
This was the first time that a Democrat won less than 50% of the vote in Bristol County since (/wiki/1992UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts), the closest a Republican had come to winning a county in Massachusetts since (/wiki/1988UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts), and the first time a Republican candidate won Fall River since (/wiki/1924UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts). Trump was initially ahead in Bristol County on election night before it narrowly flipped blue as more votes were counted. In addition, it was the first time a Republican candidate won Somerset since (/wiki/1956UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts), and the first time a Republican candidate won Westport and Seekonk (all in Bristol County) since (/wiki/1984UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninMassachusetts). Of the 351 municipalities in Massachusetts, Trump flipped 26, while Harris flipped none. Three hundred thirty-nine municipalities shifted towards Trump, while only 12 shifted towards Harris. Harris's largest gain was in Gosnold, where she improved on Biden's margin of victory by 12.2%, while Trump's largest gain was in Lawrence, where he cut his margin of defeat by 31%. Despite losing the city to Harris by a wide margin, Trump managed to win two precincts in Boston, the first time in his three runs that he managed to win any.
Trump's gains were powered significantly by Hispanic Americans, who make up a significant percentage of the population of Massachusetts and shifted heavily to the right in 2024. Lawrence, a heavily Dominican American city in northern Massachusetts, gave Trump 43% of the vote, a gain of over 30% from 2020. The six most Hispanic cities in Massachusetts (namely Lawrence, Lynn, Everett, Chelsea, Holyoke, and Springfield) saw Harris' margin of victory drop a combined 18% from 2020.