2022 Texas gubernatorial election

2022 Texas gubernatorial election

The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a third term, defeating the Democratic nominee, former Congressman Beto O'Rourke. All statewide elected offices were currently held by Republicans. In his previous gubernatorial race in 2018, Abbott won with 55.8% of the vote.

The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on March 1, 2022. O'Rourke and Abbott won outright majorities in their respective primaries, and therefore did not participate in the May 24 runoffs.

Texas had not elected a Democratic candidate for governor since Ann Richards won a narrow victory in (/wiki/1990Texasgubernatorialelection). Additionally, Abbott had a strong approval rating on election day, with 55% of voters approving to 45% disapproving. Beto O'Rourke, who gained national attention in (/wiki/2018UnitedStatesSenateelectioninTexas) for his unusually close and competitive campaign against Senator Ted Cruz, was at one-time widely viewed as a rising star in the Texas Democratic Party and potential challenger for Abbott. However, in the intervening years, he amassed baggage that was leveraged against him in 2022. A failed run for President of the United States in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatespresidentialelection) was leveraged by Republicans to characterize him as opportunistic. Stances he had taken (and since reneged) related to gun control during that presidential campaign were also leveraged against him by Republicans.

Abbott won by 10.9%, a slightly smaller margin of victory than his 13.3% margin in 2018 in spite of a much more Republican national climate in 2022, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since (/wiki/2006Texasgubernatorialelection), and the closest election of Abbott's entire political career since his first race for the Texas Supreme Court in (/wiki/GregAbbott#Electoralhistory). Beto O'Rourke, meanwhile, performed 8.3% worse than his 2018 Senate run, but he still won the highest share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards received 45.9% in her unsuccessful reelection bid against George W. Bush in (/wiki/1994Texasgubernatorialelection). Abbott's raw vote total was less than his 4.65 million in 2018, while O'Rourke set a record of most raw votes for a Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate at around 3.55 million, but it was also less than his 4.04 million vote total in the 2018 Senate race.

Abbott carried 235 out of 254 counties, flipping the heavily Hispanic counties of Culberson and Zapata and becoming the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the latter in the state's history (though Zapata had earlier voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election), while O'Rourke became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win the county of Fort Bend since (/wiki/1974Texasgubernatorialelection). O'Rourke outperformed Joe Biden two years prior among Latino voters, though his performance with them was still worse than past nominees.

Republican primary

2022 Texas gubernatorial election

On June 4, 2021, Texas Republican Party chairman Allen West announced his resignation as party chair. West criticized Gov. Greg Abbott's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas. The history of conflict between West and Abbott included a lawsuit by West and other Republicans challenging Abbott's extension of the early voting period in 2020, as well as a protest outside the Governor's Mansion over pandemic-related shutdowns as well as mask mandates. On July 4, 2021, West announced that he would challenge Abbott in the 2022 gubernatorial primary. Both West and fellow gubernatorial candidate Don Huffines were considered more conservative than Abbott. On March 1, 2022, Abbott won the Republican primary by a smaller margin than in 2018.

Nominee

• Greg Abbott, incumbent governor and former Texas Attorney General

Eliminated in primary

• Paul G. Belew, criminal defense attorney • Danny Harrison, businessman • Kandy Kaye Horn, philanthropist • Don Huffines, former member of the Texas Senate • Ricky Lynn Perry, staffing agency employee • Chad Prather, podcaster / talk show host, activist, and stand-up comedian • Allen West, former chair of the Texas Republican Party and former U.S. representative for Florida's 22nd congressional district

Withdrawn

• Martin Holsome, former Rusk city councillor • Kurt Schwab, military veteran

Declined

• George P. Bush, Texas Land Commissioner and member of the Bush family (ran for Attorney General) • Christi Craddick, Texas Railroad Commissioner • Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts (running for re-election) • Sid Miller, Texas Agriculture Commissioner (running for re-election) • Rick Perry, former governor and former U.S. Secretary of Energy • Joe Straus, former Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Greg Abbott	Don Huffines	Ricky Lynn Perry	Chad Prather	Allen West	Other	Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)	February 25–28, 2022	1,040 (LV)	± 3.0%	62%	10%	2%	2%	15%	5%	3%
Emerson College	February 21–22, 2022	522 (LV)	± 4.2%	61%	9%	3%	3%	12%	3%	9%
UT Tyler	February 8–15, 2022	581 (LV)	± 4.4%	60%	3%	6%	3%	7%	5%	15%
YouGov/UT	January 28 – February 7, 2022	375 (LV)	± 5.1%	60%	14%	5%	3%	15%	3%	–
Paradigm Partners (R)	January 31, 2022	1,542 (LV)	± 2.5%	34%	5%	6%	6%	43%	3%	4%
UT Tyler	January 18–25, 2022	514 (LV)	± 5.1%	59%	4%	4%	2%	6%	4%	20%
YouGov/UH	January 14–24, 2022	490 (LV)	± 3.7%	58%	7%	3%	2%	11%	2%	17%
Paradigm Partners (R)	January 9, 2022	1,486 (LV)	± 2.5%	33%	5%	12%	3%	38%	3%	7%
Paradigm Partners (R)	December 16, 2021	447 (LV)	± 4.5%	33%	2%	15%	1%	35%	–	14%
Paradigm Partners (R)	November 30, 2021	– (LV)	–	42%	3%	–	2%	36%	–	17%
UT Tyler	November 9–16, 2021	520 (LV)	± 4.7%	65%	3%	–	6%	6%	3%	18%
Paradigm Partners (R)	November 11, 2021	– (LV)	–	43%	3%	–	2%	33%	–	19%
YouGov/UT/TT	October 22–31, 2021	554 (RV)	± 4.2%	56%	7%	–	4%	13%	4%	16%
YouGov/TXHPF	October 14–27, 2021	405 (LV)	± 4.9%	61%	4%	–	3%	13%	–	19%
UT Tyler	September 7–14, 2021	427 (LV)	± 6.1%	70%	15%	–	–	–	15%	–
431 (LV)	± 6.0%	65%	–	–	–	20%	15%	–
Victory Insights (R)	July 22–24, 2021	400 (RV)	± 4.9%	80%	–	–	–	20%	–	–
Paradigm Partners (R)	June 30, 2021	– (LV)	–	73%	–	–	–	17%	–	10%
UT Tyler	June 22–29, 2021	440 (LV)	± 5.4%	77%	12%	–	–	–	11%	–

Results

Results by county:   Abbott

Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Greg Abbott (incumbent)	1,299,059	66.48%
	Republican	Allen West	239,557	12.26%
	Republican	Don Huffines	234,138	11.98%
	Republican	Chad Prather	74,173	3.80%
	Republican	Ricky Lynn Perry	61,424	3.14%
	Republican	Kandy Kaye Horn	23,605	1.21%
	Republican	Paul Belew	11,387	0.58%
	Republican	Danny Harrison	10,829	0.55%
Total votes	1,954,172	100%

Democratic primary

Nominee

• Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. representative for Texas's 16th congressional district, nominee for U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2018UnitedStatesSenateelectioninTexas) and candidate for president of the United States in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatespresidentialelection)

Eliminated in primary

• Inocencio Barrientez, fitness trainer • Michael Cooper, pastor, candidate for lieutenant governor in (/wiki/2018Texaselections), and candidate for U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatesSenateelectioninTexas) • Joy Diaz, reporter • Rich Wakeland, former advisor to Public Utility Commissioner Ken Anderson

Disqualified

• Jack Daniel Foster Jr., teacher • R. Star Locke, veteran

Declined

• Steve Adler, mayor of Austin • Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative for Texas's 20th congressional district (endorsed O'Rourke) • Julián Castro, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, former mayor of San Antonio, and candidate for president of the United States in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatespresidentialelection) • Wendy Davis, former state senator, nominee for governor in (/wiki/2014Texasgubernatorialelection), and nominee for Texas's 21st congressional district in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativeselectionsinTexas#District21) • Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative for Texas's 16th congressional district, former El Paso commissioner, and former El Paso county judge (running for re-election) • Lina Hidalgo, Harris County judge

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Inocencio Barrientez</th><th>Michael Cooper</th><th>Joy Diaz</th><th>Jack Foster Jr.</th><th>Deirdre Gilbert</th><th>Star Locke</th><th>Beto O'Rourke</th><th>Rich Wakeland</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>February 21–22, 2022</td><td>388 (LV)</td><td>± 4.9%</td><td>1%</td><td>5%</td><td>4%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>78%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>UT Tyler</td><td>February 8–15, 2022</td><td>479 (LV)</td><td>± 4.9%</td><td>2%</td><td>3%</td><td>4%</td><td>2%</td><td>2%</td><td>2%</td><td>68%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UT</td><td>January 28 – February 7, 2022</td><td>348 (LV)</td><td>± 5.3%</td><td>2%</td><td>1%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>93%</td><td>1%</td><td>1%</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>UT Tyler</td><td>January 18–25, 2022</td><td>459 (LV)</td><td>± 5.4%</td><td>1%</td><td>6%</td><td>4%</td><td>2%</td><td>1%</td><td>1%</td><td>58%</td><td>0%</td><td>–</td><td>27%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UH</td><td>January 14–24, 2022</td><td>616 (LV)</td><td>± 3.3%</td><td>3%</td><td>4%</td><td>3%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>73%</td><td>1%</td><td>–</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UT/TT</td><td>October 22–31, 2021</td><td>436 (RV)</td><td>± 4.7%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>70%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td><td>25%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Results

Results by county: O'Rourke: Wakeland: Barrientez: No vote:

<table><thead><tr><th>Party</th><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>%</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Beto O'Rourke</td><td>983,182</td><td>91.41%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Joy Diaz</td><td>33,622</td><td>3.13%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Michael Cooper</td><td>32,673</td><td>3.04%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Rich Wakeland</td><td>13,237</td><td>1.23%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Inocencio Barrientez</td><td>12,887</td><td>1.20%</td></tr><tr><td>Total votes</td><td>1,075,601</td><td>100%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Libertarian convention

Declared

• Mark Jay Tippetts, attorney, former Lago Vista city councilman, and nominee for governor in (/wiki/2018Texasgubernatorialelection)

Withdrew/disqualified

• Dan Behrman, software engineer, internet personality, candidate for Texas House of Representatives in (/wiki/2014Texaselections#TexasHouseofRepresentatives), and candidate for President of the United States in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatespresidentialelection) • Andrew Jewell, industrial maintenance technician, Secretary of Libertarian Party of Dallas County, chair of Texas Libertarian Party Radical Caucus, and candidate for Dallas County Commissioner District 3 in 2020

Independents and other parties

Declared

• Jacqueline Abernathy, public health policies consultant and American Solidarity Party candidate • Deirdre Dickson-Gilbert, public educator (previously ran for Democratic nomination) • Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla, retired educator and write-in candidate for U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatesSenateelectioninTexas)

Disqualified

• Patrick Wynne, software engineer, data scientist and U.S. Navy veteran (Reform Party)

Declined

• Matthew McConaughey, Academy Award-winning actor (no declared party affiliation)

General election

Predictions

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Likely R</td><td>March 4, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>Inside Elections</td><td>Solid R</td><td>July 22, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Likely R</td><td>June 29, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>Politico</td><td>Likely R</td><td>April 1, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>RCP</td><td>Lean R</td><td>January 10, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>Fox News</td><td>Likely R</td><td>May 12, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>538</td><td>Solid R</td><td>September 21, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>Elections Daily</td><td>Likely R</td><td>November 7, 2022</td></tr></tbody></table>

Debates

<table><thead><tr><th>No.</th><th>Date</th><th>Host</th><th>Moderators</th><th>Link</th><th>Republican</th><th>Democratic</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Key:  P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Greg Abbott</td><td>Beto O'Rourke</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Sep. 30, 2022</td><td>KXAN-TV</td><td>Sally Hernandez Gromer Jeffers Steve Spriester</td><td>KXAN-TV</td><td>P</td><td>P</td></tr></tbody></table>

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Source of poll aggregation</th><th>Dates administered</th><th>Dates updated</th><th>Greg Abbott (R)</th><th>Beto O'Rourke (D)</th><th>Other</th><th>Margin</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Real Clear Politics</td><td>October 3–19, 2022</td><td>October 25, 2022</td><td>52.8%</td><td>43.5%</td><td>3.7%</td><td>Abbott +9.3</td></tr><tr><td>FiveThirtyEight</td><td>June 14, 2021 – October 25, 2022</td><td>October 25, 2022</td><td>51.4%</td><td>42.9%</td><td>5.7%</td><td>Abbott +8.5</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>52.1%</td><td>43.2%</td><td>4.7%</td><td>Abbott +8.9</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Greg Abbott (R)</th><th>Beto O'Rourke (D)</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>CWS Research (R)</td><td>November 2–5, 2022</td><td>786 (LV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>53%</td><td>42%</td><td>2%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>UT Tyler</td><td>October 17–24, 2022</td><td>1,330 (RV)</td><td>± 2.9%</td><td>47%</td><td>44%</td><td>7%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>973 (LV)</td><td>± 3.4%</td><td>50%</td><td>44%</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>October 17–19, 2022</td><td>1,000 (LV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>52%</td><td>42%</td><td>1%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>53%</td><td>44%</td><td>3%</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Siena College</td><td>October 16–19, 2022</td><td>649 (LV)</td><td>± 5.1%</td><td>52%</td><td>43%</td><td>2%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Beacon Research (D)</td><td>October 15–19, 2022</td><td>1,264 (RV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>48%</td><td>45%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>BSP Research/UT</td><td>October 11–18, 2022</td><td>1,400 (RV)</td><td>± 2.6%</td><td>46%</td><td>42%</td><td>3%</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UT</td><td>October 7–17, 2022</td><td>833 (LV)</td><td>± 3.3%</td><td>54%</td><td>43%</td><td>4%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Civiqs</td><td>October 8–11, 2022</td><td>791 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>52%</td><td>44%</td><td>3%</td><td>0%</td></tr><tr><td>Marist College</td><td>October 3–6, 2022</td><td>1,058 (RV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>49%</td><td>45%</td><td>1%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>898 (LV)</td><td>± 4.8%</td><td>52%</td><td>44%</td><td>1%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac University</td><td>September 22–26, 2022</td><td>1,327 (LV)</td><td>± 2.7%</td><td>53%</td><td>46%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>September 20–22, 2022</td><td>1,000 (LV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>50%</td><td>42%</td><td>4%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>ActiVote</td><td>June 23 – September 21, 2022</td><td>323 (LV)</td><td>± 6.0%</td><td>47%</td><td>40%</td><td>12%</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Siena College</td><td>September 14–18, 2022</td><td>651 (LV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>50%</td><td>43%</td><td>2%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation</td><td>September 6–15, 2022</td><td>1,172 (LV)</td><td>± 2.9%</td><td>51%</td><td>44%</td><td>2%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>UT Tyler</td><td>September 7–13, 2022</td><td>1,268 (RV)</td><td>± 2.9%</td><td>47%</td><td>38%</td><td>9%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Data for Progress (D)</td><td>September 2–9, 2022</td><td>712 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>50%</td><td>45%</td><td>2%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Echelon Insights</td><td>August 31 – September 7, 2022</td><td>813 (LV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>48%</td><td>46%</td><td>–</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UT</td><td>August 26 – September 6, 2022</td><td>1,200 (RV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>45%</td><td>40%</td><td>4%</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UH/TSU</td><td>August 11–29, 2022</td><td>1,312 (LV)</td><td>± 2.7%</td><td>49%</td><td>42%</td><td>2%</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>UT Tyler</td><td>August 1–7, 2022</td><td>1,384 (RV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>46%</td><td>39%</td><td>13%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>1,215 (LV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>48%</td><td>42%</td><td>9%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UH</td><td>June 27 – July 7, 2022</td><td>1,169 (RV)</td><td>± 2.9%</td><td>47%</td><td>42%</td><td>2%</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>1,006 (LV)</td><td>± 3.1%</td><td>49%</td><td>44%</td><td>2%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/CBS News</td><td>June 22–27, 2022</td><td>548 (LV)</td><td>± 6.6%</td><td>49%</td><td>41%</td><td>4%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UT</td><td>June 16–24, 2022</td><td>1,200 (RV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>45%</td><td>39%</td><td>6%</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/PerryUndem</td><td>June 15–24, 2022</td><td>2,000 (RV)</td><td>± 2.2%</td><td>47%</td><td>43%</td><td>3%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac University</td><td>June 9–13, 2022</td><td>1,257 (RV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>48%</td><td>43%</td><td>2%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Blueprint Polling (D)</td><td>June 8–10, 2022</td><td>603 (LV)</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>56%</td><td>37%</td><td>–</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>UT Tyler</td><td>May 2–10, 2022</td><td>1,232 (RV)</td><td>± 3.1%</td><td>46%</td><td>39%</td><td>14%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UT</td><td>April 14–22, 2022</td><td>1,200 (RV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>48%</td><td>37%</td><td>7%</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/TXHPF</td><td>March 18–28, 2022</td><td>1,139 (LV)</td><td>± 2.9%</td><td>50%</td><td>42%</td><td>3%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Texas Lyceum</td><td>March 11–20, 2022</td><td>926 (RV)</td><td>± 3.2%</td><td>42%</td><td>40%</td><td>7%</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>February 21–22, 2022</td><td>1,000 (LV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>52%</td><td>45%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>UT Tyler</td><td>February 8–15, 2022</td><td>1,188 (RV)</td><td>± 3.1%</td><td>45%</td><td>38%</td><td>16%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>Climate Nexus</td><td>February 1–9, 2022</td><td>806 (LV)</td><td>± 3.6%</td><td>45%</td><td>40%</td><td>7%</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UT</td><td>January 28 – February 7, 2022</td><td>1,200 (RV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>47%</td><td>37%</td><td>6%</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>UT Tyler</td><td>January 18–25, 2022</td><td>1,072 (RV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>47%</td><td>36%</td><td>16%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UH</td><td>January 14–24, 2022</td><td>– (LV)</td><td>–</td><td>48%</td><td>43%</td><td>3%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac University</td><td>December 2–6, 2021</td><td>1,224 (RV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>52%</td><td>37%</td><td>4%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>UT Tyler</td><td>November 9–16, 2021</td><td>1,106 (RV)</td><td>± 3.2%</td><td>45%</td><td>39%</td><td>16%</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Redfield & Wilton Strategies</td><td>November 9, 2021</td><td>884 (RV)</td><td>± 3.3%</td><td>40%</td><td>39%</td><td>5%</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>854 (LV)</td><td>± 3.4%</td><td>43%</td><td>44%</td><td>5%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/UT/TT</td><td>October 22–31, 2021</td><td>1,200 (RV)</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>46%</td><td>37%</td><td>7%</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov/TXHPF</td><td>October 14–27, 2021</td><td>1,402 (RV)</td><td>± 3.1%</td><td>43%</td><td>42%</td><td>3%</td><td>12%</td></tr><tr><td>UT Tyler</td><td>September 7–14, 2021</td><td>1,148 (RV)</td><td>± 3.7%</td><td>42%</td><td>37%</td><td>21%</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>UT Tyler</td><td>June 22–29, 2021</td><td>1,090 (RV)</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>45%</td><td>33%</td><td>22%</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Public Opinion Strategies (R)</td><td>June 14–17, 2021</td><td>800 (LV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>52%</td><td>42%</td><td>–</td><td>6%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Results

State house district results

State senate district results

<table><thead><tr><th>Party</th><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>%</th><th>±%</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Greg Abbott (incumbent)</td><td>4,437,099</td><td>54.76%</td><td>−1.05%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Beto O'Rourke</td><td>3,553,656</td><td>43.86%</td><td>+1.35%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Libertarian</td><td>Mark Tippetts</td><td>81,932</td><td>1.01%</td><td>−0.68%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Green</td><td>Delilah Barrios</td><td>28,584</td><td>0.35%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>American Solidarity</td><td>Jacqueline Abernathy</td><td>1,243</td><td>0.02%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td>Total votes</td><td>8,102,908</td><td>100.00%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td>Turnout</td><td>8,102,908</td><td>45.85%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Registered electors</td><td>17,672,143</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican hold</td></tr></tbody></table>

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Culberson (largest city: Van Horn) • Zapata (largest city: Zapata)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Fort Bend (largest city: Sugar Land)

County flips:

By congressional district

<table><thead><tr><th>District</th><th>Abbott</th><th>O'Rourke</th><th>Representative</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1st</td><td>77%</td><td>22%</td><td>Louie Gohmert (117th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>Nathaniel Moran (118th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>2nd</td><td>62%</td><td>36%</td><td>Dan Crenshaw</td></tr><tr><td>3rd</td><td>59%</td><td>39%</td><td>Van Taylor (117th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>Keith Self (118th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>4th</td><td>66%</td><td>33%</td><td>Pat Fallon</td></tr><tr><td>5th</td><td>63%</td><td>35%</td><td>Lance Gooden</td></tr><tr><td>6th</td><td>65%</td><td>34%</td><td>Jake Ellzey</td></tr><tr><td>7th</td><td>35%</td><td>63%</td><td>Lizzie Fletcher</td></tr><tr><td>8th</td><td>67%</td><td>32%</td><td>Kevin Brady (117th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>Morgan Luttrell (118th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>9th</td><td>23%</td><td>76%</td><td>Al Green</td></tr><tr><td>10th</td><td>61%</td><td>37%</td><td>Michael McCaul</td></tr><tr><td>11th</td><td>74%</td><td>25%</td><td>August Pfluger</td></tr><tr><td>12th</td><td>60%</td><td>39%</td><td>Kay Granger</td></tr><tr><td>13th</td><td>75%</td><td>24%</td><td>Ronny Jackson</td></tr><tr><td>14th</td><td>66%</td><td>32%</td><td>Randy Weber</td></tr><tr><td>15th</td><td>52%</td><td>46%</td><td>Vicente Gonzalez (117th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>Monica De La Cruz (118th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>16th</td><td>35%</td><td>64%</td><td>Veronica Escobar</td></tr><tr><td>17th</td><td>65%</td><td>34%</td><td>Pete Sessions</td></tr><tr><td>18th</td><td>25%</td><td>73%</td><td>Sheila Jackson Lee</td></tr><tr><td>19th</td><td>77%</td><td>22%</td><td>Jodey Arrington</td></tr><tr><td>20th</td><td>32%</td><td>66%</td><td>Joaquín Castro</td></tr><tr><td>21st</td><td>61%</td><td>38%</td><td>Chip Roy</td></tr><tr><td>22nd</td><td>59%</td><td>39%</td><td>Troy Nehls</td></tr><tr><td>23rd</td><td>54%</td><td>44%</td><td>Tony Gonzales</td></tr><tr><td>24th</td><td>58%</td><td>41%</td><td>Beth Van Duyne</td></tr><tr><td>25th</td><td>68%</td><td>31%</td><td>Roger Williams</td></tr><tr><td>26th</td><td>61%</td><td>37%</td><td>Michael Burgess</td></tr><tr><td>27th</td><td>64%</td><td>35%</td><td>Michael Cloud</td></tr><tr><td>28th</td><td>46%</td><td>52%</td><td>Henry Cuellar</td></tr><tr><td>29th</td><td>30%</td><td>68%</td><td>Sylvia Garcia</td></tr><tr><td>30th</td><td>22%</td><td>77%</td><td>Eddie Bernice Johnson (117th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>Jasmine Crockett (118th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>31st</td><td>61%</td><td>37%</td><td>John Carter</td></tr><tr><td>32nd</td><td>34%</td><td>64%</td><td>Colin Allred</td></tr><tr><td>33rd</td><td>26%</td><td>73%</td><td>Marc Veasey</td></tr><tr><td>34th</td><td>43%</td><td>56%</td><td>Mayra Flores (117th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>Vicente Gonzalez (118th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>35th</td><td>26%</td><td>73%</td><td>Lloyd Doggett (117th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>Greg Casar (118th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>36th</td><td>67%</td><td>31%</td><td>Brian Babin</td></tr><tr><td>37th</td><td>21%</td><td>77%</td><td>Lloyd Doggett</td></tr><tr><td>38th</td><td>61%</td><td>38%</td><td>Wesley Hunt</td></tr></tbody></table>

Analysis

2022 Texas gubernatorial election

Map of MECE (mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive) partition of Texas into 12 regions

Texas Democrats hoped for Beto O'Rourke to achieve an upset over the incumbent Greg Abbott, which did not materialize. Abbott won by 10.9%, down from 13.3% in 2018. Abbott's margin was slightly larger than aggregate polling, but virtually in line with the last poll conducted. He won the vast majority of counties (235 out of 254), mostly rural, and by significantly wide margins. In particular, 34 counties, mainly in West Texas and the Texas panhandle, gave Abbott over 90% of the vote. This was the most by any Texas Republican gubernatorial candidate, and the most for any candidate since Democrat Allan Shivers' 1954 re-election.

Abbott won the three largest metro areas in the state, which include Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington in North Texas, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land in Southeast Texas, and San Antonio–New Braunfels in South-Central Texas. He also won all of the state's mid-sized metro areas outside of the Rio Grande Valley, which include Corpus Christi along the coastal bend; Waco, Killeen–Temple–Fort Hood, and Bryan–College Station in Central Texas; Beaumont–Port Arthur, Tyler and Longview in East Texas; Lubbock, Abilene, and Midland-Odessa in West Texas; and Amarillo in the Panhandle. Abbott also won an urban county, Tarrant, home to Fort Worth and did well in the suburban counties of the Texas Triangle, winning Brazoria, Galveston, and Montgomery counties around Houston; Comal and Guadalupe around San Antonio; Collin, Denton, Ellis, Kaufman, and Rockwall in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex; and Williamson in Greater Austin.

In DFW and Austin specifically, Republican strength had declined somewhat in these metros, with Abbott carrying Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and Williamson by 10.07%, 12.81%, 4.11%, and 0.62% respectively, down from his margins of 19.48%, 20.60%, 10.64%, and 10.71% from 2018. Excluding the largest metro areas, Abbott improved on his 2018 margins.

O'Rourke, despite his loss, did best in most of Texas's urban centers. He carried Travis, home to the state capital Austin (72.6%-25.9%), his best performance in the state; El Paso, his home county, 63.4%-35%; Dallas (62.8%-35.9%); Bexar, home to San Antonio (57.5%-41.1%); and Harris, home to Houston (54%-44.5%). He also carried Hays, a rapidly growing county south of Austin which contains San Marcos and Texas State University along with fast-growing cities of Kyle, and Buda by 54.5%-43.7%. Despite improving on 2018 nominee Lupe Valdez's margins in these counties, he did worse in all of them compared to his Senate campaign in (/wiki/2018UnitedStatesSenateelectioninTexas), and, excluding Travis and Hays, worse than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. The only county O'Rourke flipped was suburban Fort Bend outside Houston, which voted for Abbott by 0.2% in 2018, but voted for O'Rourke by 4.68% in this election.

Outside the Texas Triangle and Trans Pecos, the only other area O'Rourke won was heavily Hispanic South Texas along the U.S. border with Mexico. His performance was worse than Valdez's and his own from 2018, which continued the trend of rural Hispanic voters away from the Democrats towards Republicans, but he did outperform Biden from 2020. Counties that voted for Biden by single digits like Duval (2.61%), Starr (5%), and Maverick (9.45%); voted for O'Rourke 11.02%, 17.85%, and 17.68% respectively. Despite this improvement from the 2020 presidential race, Abbott flipped two heavily Hispanic counties, Zapata and Culberson (in the Trans Pecos).

Exit polls according to NBC News showed Abbott winning male (58%-41%) and female voters (51%-48%), whites (66%-33%), and other races (67%-31%), voters over 45 (60%-39%), college graduates (52%-47%) and non-college graduates (56%-43%), and voters who denied the results of the 2020 presidential election (94%-5%). O'Rourke won black voters (84%-15%), Latinos (57%-40%), Asians (52%-48%), voters between 18 and 44 (54%-44%), Independents (49%-47%) and moderates (60%-38%).

Fox News Voter Analysis exit polls showed Abbott winning male (59%-39%) and female voters (51%-48%); whites (68%-30%) and other races and ethnicities (53%-42%); voters over 45 (61%-37%); college graduates (54%-44%), non-college graduates (56%-43%); white men (70%-28%); white women (67%-32%). O'Rourke won African Americans (81%-18%), Latinos (56%-42%); African American men (76%-24%); African American women (85%-13%) Latino men (55%-45%) and Latina women (61%-37%).

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls. There were 4,327 total respondents.

<table><thead><tr><th>Demographic subgroup</th><th>Abbott</th><th>O'Rourke</th><th>% of total vote</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Ideology</td></tr><tr><td>Liberals</td><td>10</td><td>89</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>Moderates</td><td>38</td><td>60</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>Conservatives</td><td>91</td><td>9</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>Party</td></tr><tr><td>Democrats</td><td>3</td><td>97</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>Republicans</td><td>95</td><td>5</td><td>41</td></tr><tr><td>Independents</td><td>47</td><td>49</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>Age</td></tr><tr><td>18–24 years old</td><td>31</td><td>67</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>25–29 years old</td><td>39</td><td>61</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>30–39 years old</td><td>47</td><td>50</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>40–49 years old</td><td>53</td><td>45</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>50–64 years old</td><td>61</td><td>38</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>65 and older</td><td>62</td><td>37</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>Gender</td></tr><tr><td>Men</td><td>58</td><td>41</td><td>49</td></tr><tr><td>Women</td><td>51</td><td>48</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>Marital status</td></tr><tr><td>Married</td><td>63</td><td>36</td><td>63</td></tr><tr><td>Unmarried</td><td>45</td><td>54</td><td>37</td></tr><tr><td>Gender by marital status</td></tr><tr><td>Married men</td><td>64</td><td>35</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>Married women</td><td>61</td><td>38</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>Unmarried men</td><td>49</td><td>49</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>Unmarried women</td><td>42</td><td>58</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>Race/ethnicity</td></tr><tr><td>White</td><td>66</td><td>33</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>Black</td><td>15</td><td>84</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>Latino</td><td>40</td><td>57</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>Asian</td><td>48</td><td>52</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Other</td><td>67</td><td>31</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Gender by race</td></tr><tr><td>White men</td><td>69</td><td>30</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>White women</td><td>64</td><td>36</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>Black men</td><td>22</td><td>78</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>Black women</td><td>9</td><td>90</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>Latino men</td><td>45</td><td>53</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>Latina women</td><td>36</td><td>62</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>Other racial/ethnic groups</td><td>57</td><td>42</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Education</td></tr><tr><td>Never attended college</td><td>60</td><td>40</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>Some college education</td><td>53</td><td>45</td><td>28</td></tr><tr><td>Associate degree</td><td>57</td><td>41</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>Bachelor's degree</td><td>54</td><td>44</td><td>26</td></tr><tr><td>Advanced degree</td><td>49</td><td>50</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>Education by race</td></tr><tr><td>White college graduates</td><td>60</td><td>39</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>White no college degree</td><td>72</td><td>27</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>Non-white college graduates</td><td>34</td><td>65</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>Non-white no college degree</td><td>35</td><td>63</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>Education by gender/race</td></tr><tr><td>White women with college degrees</td><td>57</td><td>42</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>White women without college degrees</td><td>70</td><td>29</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>White men with college degrees</td><td>63</td><td>36</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>White men without college degrees</td><td>75</td><td>24</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>Non-white</td><td>35</td><td>64</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Issue regarded as most important</td></tr><tr><td>Crime</td><td>58</td><td>36</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>Inflation</td><td>76</td><td>22</td><td>28</td></tr><tr><td>Immigration</td><td>88</td><td>12</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>Gun policy</td><td>32</td><td>67</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>Abortion</td><td>19</td><td>80</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>Abortion should be</td></tr><tr><td>Legal</td><td>23</td><td>75</td><td>54</td></tr><tr><td>Illegal</td><td>92</td><td>7</td><td>43</td></tr><tr><td>First-time midterm election voter</td></tr><tr><td>Yes</td><td>43</td><td>57</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>No</td><td>55</td><td>44</td><td>86</td></tr><tr><td>2020 presidential vote</td></tr><tr><td>Trump</td><td>97</td><td>2</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>Biden</td><td>4</td><td>96</td><td>41</td></tr><tr><td>Other</td><td>N/A</td><td>N/A</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Did not vote</td><td>N/A</td><td>N/A</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Biden legitimately won in 2020</td></tr><tr><td>Yes</td><td>25</td><td>74</td><td>54</td></tr><tr><td>No</td><td>94</td><td>5</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>Area type</td></tr><tr><td>Urban</td><td>49</td><td>50</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>Suburban</td><td>56</td><td>43</td><td>47</td></tr><tr><td>Rural</td><td>66</td><td>32</td><td>11</td></tr></tbody></table>