2022 California gubernatorial election

The 2022 California gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of California, with the statewide top-two primary election taking place on June 7, 2022. Incumbent Democratic Party Governor Gavin Newsom was elected to a second term after surviving a recall election in 2021, during his first term.

Source: Wikipedia

Article

2022 California gubernatorial election

The elections featured universal mail-in ballots; in-person voting was also available. All statewide elected offices are currently held by Democrats. Newsom won 61.9% of the vote in both the 2018 gubernatorial election and the 2021 recall election. He received 55.9% of the top-two primary vote and faced Republican Party state senator Brian Dahle, who received 17.7% of the primary vote, in the general election.

Newsom received 59.2% of the vote to Dahle's 40.8%, a smaller margin of victory than in 2018 and 2021 and the smallest since (/wiki/2010Californiagubernatorialelection). Dahle flipped five counties that Newsom carried in 2018: Lake, Merced (which had previously voted to recall Newsom in 2021), Orange, San Bernardino, and San Joaquin. Dahle also received 32% of the vote in Los Angeles County, the highest percentage received by a Republican in the state's most populous county since 2014. Additionally, Dahle managed to carry two congressional districts represented by Democrats: CA-09 and CA-47. This election marks the fourth consecutive California gubernatorial election in which a Democratic candidate won.

Candidates

Advanced to general

• Gavin Newsom, incumbent governor

Eliminated in primary

• Anthony Fanara, restaurant owner • Armando Perez-Serrato, businessman and candidate in the 2021 recall election • Joel Ventresca, former Service Employees International Union committee member, retired airport analyst and perennial candidate

Advanced to general

• Brian Dahle, state senator from the 1st district and former Minority Leader of the California State Assembly

Eliminated in primary

• Ronald A. Anderson, contractor and businessman • Gurinder Bhangoo (write-in) • Shawn Collins, U.S. Navy veteran and attorney • Ron Jones, former police officer • Jenny Rae Le Roux, entrepreneur and candidate in the 2021 recall election • David Lozano, attorney and candidate in the 2021 recall election • Daniel R. Mercuri, businessman, candidate in the 2021 recall election and for California's 25th congressional district in (/wiki/2020UnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativeselectionsinCalifornia#District25) • Cristian Raul Morales, manufacturing executive • Robert C. Newman, psychologist and candidate in the 2021 recall election • Lonnie Sortor, business owner • Anthony Trimino, entrepreneur and candidate in the 2021 recall election • Major Williams, entrepreneur and write-in candidate in the 2021 recall election • Leo S. Zacky, businessman, broadcaster, and candidate in the 2021 recall election

Declined

• Larry Elder, conservative talk show host, author, and candidate in the 2021 recall election • Kevin Faulconer, former mayor of San Diego (2014–2020) and candidate in the 2021 recall election • Kimberly Guilfoyle, television personality, former advisor to Donald Trump and ex-wife of Gavin Newsom • Kevin Kiley, state assemblyman from the 6th district (2016–2022) and candidate in the 2021 recall election (ran for CA-03)

Eliminated in primary

• Heather Collins, small business owner and candidate in the 2021 recall election • Luis J. Rodriguez, poet, novelist, and candidate for governor in (/wiki/2014Californiagubernatorialelection)

• Serge Fiankan, small business owner • James G. Hanink, former Loyola Marymount University philosophy professor and candidate in the 2021 recall election • Woodrow Sanders III, entrepreneur and engineer • Frederic C. Schultz, attorney • Reinette Senum, former mayor of Nevada City • Michael Shellenberger, environmental policy writer and Democratic candidate for governor in (/wiki/2018Californiagubernatorialelection) • Bradley Zink, children's book author

Withdrew

• Adriel Hampton, digital media businessman and candidate for California's 10th congressional district in (/wiki/2009California's10thcongressionaldistrictspecialelection)

Primary election

2022 California gubernatorial election

The list of candidates was announced on Mar 31, 2022 by the secretary of state.

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Ronald Anderson (R)</th><th>Shawn Collins (R)</th><th>Brian Dahle (R)</th><th>Anthony Fanara (D)</th><th>Gavin Newsom (D)</th><th>Michael Shellenberger (I)</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Berkeley IGS</td><td>May 24–31, 2022</td><td>3,438 (LV)</td><td>± 2.2%</td><td>1%</td><td>3%</td><td>10%</td><td>1%</td><td>50%</td><td>5%</td><td>15%</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>SurveyUSA</td><td>May 13–15, 2022</td><td>709 (LV)</td><td>± 4.5%</td><td>7%</td><td>5%</td><td>7%</td><td>5%</td><td>40%</td><td>2%</td><td>16%</td><td>18%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Results

<table><thead><tr><th>Party</th><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>%</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Gavin Newsom (incumbent)</td><td>3,945,728</td><td>55.9</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Brian Dahle</td><td>1,252,800</td><td>17.7</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>No party preference</td><td>Michael Shellenberger</td><td>290,286</td><td>4.1</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Jenny Rae Le Roux</td><td>246,665</td><td>3.5</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Anthony Trimino</td><td>246,322</td><td>3.5</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Shawn Collins</td><td>173,083</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Green</td><td>Luis J. Rodriguez</td><td>124,672</td><td>1.8</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Leo S. Zacky</td><td>94,521</td><td>1.3</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Major Williams</td><td>92,580</td><td>1.3</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Robert C. Newman II</td><td>82,849</td><td>1.2</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Joel Ventresca</td><td>66,885</td><td>0.9</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>David Lozano</td><td>66,542</td><td>0.9</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Ronald A. Anderson</td><td>53,554</td><td>0.8</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>No party preference</td><td>Reinette Senum</td><td>53,015</td><td>0.8</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Armando Perez-Serrato</td><td>45,474</td><td>0.6</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Ron Jones</td><td>38,337</td><td>0.5</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Daniel R. Mercuri</td><td>36,396</td><td>0.5</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Green</td><td>Heather Collins</td><td>29,690</td><td>0.4</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Anthony Fanara</td><td>25,086</td><td>0.4</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Cristian Raul Morales</td><td>22,304</td><td>0.3</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Lonnie Sortor</td><td>21,044</td><td>0.3</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>No party preference</td><td>Frederic C. Schultz</td><td>17,502</td><td>0.2</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>No party preference</td><td>Woodrow Sanders III</td><td>16,204</td><td>0.2</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>No party preference</td><td>James G. Hanink</td><td>10,110</td><td>0.1</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>No party preference</td><td>Serge Fiankan</td><td>6,201</td><td>0.1</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>No party preference</td><td>Bradley Zink</td><td>5,997</td><td>0.1</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>American Independent</td><td>Jeff Scott (write-in)</td><td>13</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Gurinder Bhangoo (write-in)</td><td>8</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>Total votes</td><td>7,063,868</td><td>100.0</td></tr></tbody></table>

General election

Predictions

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Solid D</td><td>October 26, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>Inside Elections</td><td>Solid D</td><td>November 3, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Safe D</td><td>November 7, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>Politico</td><td>Solid D</td><td>April 1, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>RCP</td><td>Safe D</td><td>January 10, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>Fox News</td><td>Solid D</td><td>May 12, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>538</td><td>Solid D</td><td>November 8, 2022</td></tr><tr><td>Elections Daily</td><td>Safe D</td><td>November 7, 2022</td></tr></tbody></table>

Debates

Governor Gavin Newsom and State Senator Brian Dahle met on October 23 for their only debate.

<table><thead><tr><th>No.</th><th>Date</th><th>Host</th><th>Moderators</th><th>Link</th><th>Participants</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Gavin Newsom</td><td>Brian Dahle</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>October 23, 2022</td><td>KQED</td><td>Scott Shafer Marisa Lagos</td><td>YouTube</td><td>P</td><td>P</td></tr></tbody></table>

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Source of poll aggregation</th><th>Dates administered</th><th>Dates updated</th><th>Gavin Newsom (D)</th><th>Brian Dahle (R)</th><th>Other</th><th>Margin</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Real Clear Politics</td><td>September 22 – October 23, 2022</td><td>November 3, 2022</td><td>55.0%</td><td>34.3%</td><td>10.7%</td><td>Newsom +20.7</td></tr><tr><td>FiveThirtyEight</td><td>September 2 – November 8, 2022</td><td>November 8, 2022</td><td>59.6%</td><td>38.7%</td><td>1.7%</td><td>Newsom +20.9</td></tr><tr><td>270ToWin</td><td>October 27 – November 7, 2022</td><td>November 8, 2022</td><td>57.4%</td><td>37.0%</td><td>5.6%</td><td>Newsom +20.4</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>57.3%</td><td>36.7%</td><td>6.0%</td><td>Newsom +20.6</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Gavin Newsom (D)</th><th>Brian Dahle (R)</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Research Co.</td><td>November 4–6, 2022</td><td>450 (LV)</td><td>± 4.6%</td><td>56%</td><td>37%</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>USC</td><td>October 30 – November 2, 2022</td><td>802 (RV)</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>62%</td><td>38%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>UC Berkeley</td><td>October 25–31, 2022</td><td>5,972 (LV)</td><td>± 2.0%</td><td>58%</td><td>37%</td><td>–</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>ActiVote</td><td>July 29 – October 27, 2022</td><td>200 (LV)</td><td>± 7.0%</td><td>61%</td><td>39%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Institute of California</td><td>October 14–23, 2022</td><td>1,060 (LV)</td><td>± 5.4%</td><td>55%</td><td>36%</td><td>4%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>SurveyUSA</td><td>October 7–10, 2022</td><td>1,013 (LV)</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>57%</td><td>35%</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>UC Berkeley</td><td>September 22–27, 2022</td><td>6,939 (LV)</td><td>± 2.5%</td><td>53%</td><td>32%</td><td>2%</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Institute of California</td><td>September 2–11, 2022</td><td>1,060 (LV)</td><td>± 5.4%</td><td>58%</td><td>31%</td><td>5%</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>UC Berkeley</td><td>August 9–15, 2022</td><td>9,254 (RV)</td><td>± 2.0%</td><td>52%</td><td>25%</td><td>4%</td><td>19%</td></tr><tr><td>6,321 (LV)</td><td>± 2.4%</td><td>55%</td><td>31%</td><td>3%</td><td>11%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Results

<table><thead><tr><th>Party</th><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>%</th><th>±%</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Gavin Newsom (incumbent)</td><td>6,470,104</td><td>59.18%</td><td>−2.77</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Brian Dahle</td><td>4,462,914</td><td>40.82%</td><td>+2.77</td></tr><tr><td>Total votes</td><td>10,933,018</td><td>100.00%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td>Turnout</td><td>11,146,620</td><td>50.80%</td><td>−12.48</td></tr><tr><td>Registered electors</td><td>21,940,274</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic hold</td></tr></tbody></table>

By congressional district

Newsom won 38 of 52 congressional districts, with the remaining 14 going to Dahle, including two that elected Democrats.

<table><thead><tr><th>District</th><th>Newsom</th><th>Dahle</th><th>Representative</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1st</td><td>33%</td><td>67%</td><td>Doug LaMalfa</td></tr><tr><td>2nd</td><td>71%</td><td>29%</td><td>Jared Huffman</td></tr><tr><td>3rd</td><td>43%</td><td>57%</td><td>Kevin Kiley</td></tr><tr><td>4th</td><td>63%</td><td>37%</td><td>Mike Thompson</td></tr><tr><td>5th</td><td>37%</td><td>63%</td><td>Tom McClintock</td></tr><tr><td>6th</td><td>54%</td><td>46%</td><td>Ami Bera</td></tr><tr><td>7th</td><td>64%</td><td>36%</td><td>Doris Matsui</td></tr><tr><td>8th</td><td>74%</td><td>26%</td><td>John Garamendi</td></tr><tr><td>9th</td><td>48%</td><td>52%</td><td>Josh Harder</td></tr><tr><td>10th</td><td>65%</td><td>35%</td><td>Mark DeSaulnier</td></tr><tr><td>11th</td><td>86%</td><td>14%</td><td>Nancy Pelosi</td></tr><tr><td>12th</td><td>90%</td><td>10%</td><td>Barbara Lee</td></tr><tr><td>13th</td><td>46%</td><td>54%</td><td>John Duarte</td></tr><tr><td>14th</td><td>68%</td><td>32%</td><td>Eric Swalwell</td></tr><tr><td>15th</td><td>76%</td><td>24%</td><td>Jackie Speier (117th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>Kevin Mullin (118th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>16th</td><td>73%</td><td>27%</td><td>Anna Eshoo</td></tr><tr><td>17th</td><td>71%</td><td>29%</td><td>Ro Khanna</td></tr><tr><td>18th</td><td>68%</td><td>32%</td><td>Zoe Lofgren</td></tr><tr><td>19th</td><td>65%</td><td>35%</td><td>Jimmy Panetta</td></tr><tr><td>20th</td><td>30%</td><td>70%</td><td>Kevin McCarthy</td></tr><tr><td>21st</td><td>51%</td><td>49%</td><td>Jim Costa</td></tr><tr><td>22nd</td><td>48%</td><td>52%</td><td>David Valadao</td></tr><tr><td>23rd</td><td>39%</td><td>61%</td><td>Jay Obernolte</td></tr><tr><td>24th</td><td>59%</td><td>41%</td><td>Salud Carbajal</td></tr><tr><td>25th</td><td>53%</td><td>47%</td><td>Raul Ruiz</td></tr><tr><td>26th</td><td>54%</td><td>46%</td><td>Julia Brownley</td></tr><tr><td>27th</td><td>49%</td><td>51%</td><td>Mike Garcia</td></tr><tr><td>28th</td><td>63%</td><td>37%</td><td>Judy Chu</td></tr><tr><td>29th</td><td>73%</td><td>27%</td><td>Tony Cárdenas</td></tr><tr><td>30th</td><td>75%</td><td>25%</td><td>Adam Schiff</td></tr><tr><td>31st</td><td>58%</td><td>42%</td><td>Grace Napolitano</td></tr><tr><td>32nd</td><td>66%</td><td>34%</td><td>Brad Sherman</td></tr><tr><td>33rd</td><td>55%</td><td>45%</td><td>Pete Aguilar</td></tr><tr><td>34th</td><td>82%</td><td>18%</td><td>Jimmy Gomez</td></tr><tr><td>35th</td><td>55%</td><td>45%</td><td>Norma Torres</td></tr><tr><td>36th</td><td>67%</td><td>33%</td><td>Ted Lieu</td></tr><tr><td>37th</td><td>85%</td><td>15%</td><td>Karen Bass (117th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>Sydney Kamlager-Dove (118th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>38th</td><td>58%</td><td>42%</td><td>Linda Sánchez</td></tr><tr><td>39th</td><td>55%</td><td>45%</td><td>Mark Takano</td></tr><tr><td>40th</td><td>45%</td><td>55%</td><td>Young Kim</td></tr><tr><td>41st</td><td>45%</td><td>55%</td><td>Ken Calvert</td></tr><tr><td>42nd</td><td>67%</td><td>33%</td><td>Lucille Roybal-Allard (117th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>Robert Garcia (118th Congress)</td></tr><tr><td>43rd</td><td>78%</td><td>22%</td><td>Maxine Waters</td></tr><tr><td>44th</td><td>69%</td><td>31%</td><td>Nanette Barragán</td></tr><tr><td>45th</td><td>49%</td><td>51%</td><td>Michelle Steel</td></tr><tr><td>46th</td><td>60%</td><td>40%</td><td>Lou Correa</td></tr><tr><td>47th</td><td>49.7%</td><td>50.3%</td><td>Katie Porter</td></tr><tr><td>48th</td><td>38%</td><td>62%</td><td>Darrell Issa</td></tr><tr><td>49th</td><td>50.4%</td><td>49.6%</td><td>Mike Levin</td></tr><tr><td>50th</td><td>61%</td><td>39%</td><td>Scott Peters</td></tr><tr><td>51st</td><td>60%</td><td>40%</td><td>Sara Jacobs</td></tr><tr><td>52nd</td><td>63%</td><td>37%</td><td>Juan Vargas</td></tr></tbody></table>

By municipality

Cities that flipped from No on 2021 Recall to Republican

• Williams (Colusa) • Fowler (Fresno) • Ferndale (Humboldt) • Imperial (Imperial) • Wasco (Kern) • Corcoran (Kings) • Lakeport (Lake) • La Mirada (Los Angeles) • Palos Verdes Estates (Los Angeles) • Rolling Hills Estates (Los Angeles) • Santa Clarita (Los Angeles) • Madera (Madera) • Cypress (Orange) • Garden Grove (Orange) • Lake Forest (Orange) • Seal Beach (Orange) • Westminster (Orange) • Eastvale (Riverside) • Jurupa Valley (Riverside) • San Jacinto (Riverside) • Chino (San Bernardino) • Redlands (San Bernardino) • Upland (San Bernardino) • Escondido (San Diego) • Pismo Beach (San Luis Obispo) • Buellton (Santa Barbara) • Lompoc (Santa Barbara) • Santa Maria (Santa Barbara) • Solvang (Santa Barbara) • Modesto (Stanislaus) • Dinuba (Tulare) • Moorpark (Ventura)

Cities that flipped from Yes on 2021 Recall to Democratic

• Industry (Los Angeles)