2020 United States presidential election in Florida

2020 United States presidential election in Florida

The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate, United States senator Kamala Harris, of California. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Florida was one of six states as well as Washington, D.C., where Trump received a greater percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016.

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention. The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston; Milwaukee was chosen. Florida was Trump's state of residency for this election; New York was his home state in (/wiki/2016UnitedStatespresidentialelection). Trump was the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020 also becoming the first former vice-president to run for president since Walter Mondale in (/wiki/1984UnitedStatespresidentialelection).

Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by 1 to 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from (/wiki/2016UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninFlorida) by 2.2 points. This was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since (/wiki/2004UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninFlorida). The main reason was increased support for Trump among Latino voters in the state, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which Biden carried by 7.4 points, significantly less than Clinton's 29.4-point margin in 2016 and Obama's 23.7-point margin in 2012. Trump carried the Cuban vote with 56%, while Biden carried the Puerto Rican vote with 66%, and Trump and Biden split the South American vote with 50% each. Overall, Biden won 54% of Latinos.

In this election, Florida voted 7.8 points right of the nation as a whole, the furthest it has voted from the nation since (/wiki/1988UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninFlorida), when the state voted 14.6 points right of the national result. As of the 2024 presidential election, this was the only election in which Florida backed the losing candidate since (/wiki/1992UnitedStatespresidentialelection). Despite the overall rightward shift, Biden became the first Democrat since (/wiki/1976UnitedStatespresidentialelection) to win the heavily urbanized Duval County, historically a Republican stronghold and home to Jacksonville. Similarly, he became the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in (/wiki/1948UnitedStatespresidentialelection). Biden also became the first Democrat to be elected president without winning Florida since Bill Clinton in (/wiki/1992UnitedStatespresidentialelection).

Florida is one of only three states that voted twice for Barack Obama and thrice for Trump, the other two being Iowa and Ohio.

Primary election

2020 United States presidential election in Florida

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida Secretary of State declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in the race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard.

The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.

General election

Final predictions

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Tossup</td></tr><tr><td>Inside Elections</td><td>Tilt D (flip)</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Lean R</td></tr><tr><td>Politico</td><td>Tossup</td></tr><tr><td>RCP</td><td>Tossup</td></tr><tr><td>Niskanen</td><td>Tossup</td></tr><tr><td>CNN</td><td>Tossup</td></tr><tr><td>The Economist</td><td>Lean D (flip)</td></tr><tr><td>CBS News</td><td>Tossup</td></tr><tr><td>270towin</td><td>Tossup</td></tr><tr><td>ABC News</td><td>Tossup</td></tr><tr><td>NPR</td><td>Tossup</td></tr><tr><td>NBC News</td><td>Lean D (flip)</td></tr><tr><td>538</td><td>Lean D (flip)</td></tr></tbody></table>

Polling

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided	Margin
270 to Win	October 24 – November 1, 2020	November 3, 2020	48.7%	46.0%	5.3%	Biden +2.7
Real Clear Politics	October 28 – November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	47.9%	47.0%	5.1%	Biden +0.9
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	49.1%	46.6%	4.3%	Biden +2.5
Average	48.6%	46.5%	4.9%	Biden +2.1

Results

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	5,668,731	51.22%	+2.20%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	5,297,045	47.86%	+0.04%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	70,324	0.64%	−1.56%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	14,721	0.13%	−0.55%
	Reform	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	5,966	0.05%	−0.05%
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman	5,712	0.05%	N/A
	Constitution	Don Blankenship William Mohr	3,902	0.04%	−0.13%
	Write-in	1,055	0.01%	−0.26%
Total votes	11,067,456	100.00%

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Various candidates Other parties	Margin	Total votes cast
#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Alachua	50,972	35.63%	89,704	62.71%	2,371	1.66%	-38,732	-27.08%	143,047
Baker	11,911	84.58%	2,037	14.47%	134	0.95%	9,874	70.11%	14,082
Bay	66,097	70.91%	25,614	27.48%	1,502	1.61%	40,483	43.43%	93,213
Bradford	10,334	75.71%	3,160	23.15%	156	1.14%	7,174	52.56%	13,650
Brevard	207,883	57.48%	148,549	41.08%	5,221	1.44%	59,334	16.40%	361,653
Broward	333,409	34.74%	618,752	64.48%	7,479	0.78%	-285,343	-29.74%	959,640
Calhoun	5,274	80.68%	1,209	18.49%	54	0.83%	4,065	62.19%	6,537
Charlotte	73,243	62.84%	42,273	36.27%	1,042	0.89%	30,970	26.57%	116,558
Citrus	65,352	69.98%	27,092	29.01%	944	1.01%	38,260	40.97%	93,388
Clay	84,480	67.77%	38,317	30.74%	1,863	1.49%	46,163	37.03%	124,660
Collier	128,950	61.91%	77,621	37.27%	1,714	0.82%	51,329	24.64%	208,285
Columbia	23,836	72.03%	8,914	26.94%	342	1.03%	14,822	45.09%	33,092
DeSoto	8,313	65.58%	4,259	33.60%	104	0.82%	4,054	31.98%	12,676
Dixie	6,759	82.70%	1,365	16.70%	49	0.60%	5,394	66.00%	8,173
Duval	233,762	47.30%	252,556	51.11%	7,843	1.59%	-18,794	-3.81%	494,161
Escambia	96,674	56.58%	70,929	41.51%	3,253	1.91%	25,745	15.07%	170,856
Flagler	43,043	59.90%	28,161	39.19%	659	0.91%	14,882	20.71%	71,863
Franklin	4,675	68.16%	2,120	30.91%	64	0.93%	2,555	37.25%	6,859
Gadsden	7,465	31.42%	16,153	67.98%	144	0.60%	-8,688	-36.56%	23,762
Gilchrist	7,895	81.37%	1,700	17.52%	107	1.11%	6,195	63.85%	9,702
Glades	3,782	72.69%	1,385	26.62%	36	0.69%	2,397	46.07%	5,203
Gulf	6,113	74.80%	1,985	24.29%	74	0.91%	4,128	50.51%	8,172
Hamilton	3,815	65.33%	1,963	33.61%	62	1.06%	1,852	31.72%	5,840
Hardee	6,122	72.01%	2,298	27.03%	82	0.96%	3,824	44.98%	8,502
Hendry	7,906	61.02%	4,929	38.04%	121	0.94%	2,977	22.98%	12,956
Hernando	70,412	64.51%	37,519	34.37%	1,219	1.12%	32,893	30.14%	109,150
Highlands	34,873	66.75%	16,938	32.42%	432	0.83%	17,935	34.33%	52,243
Hillsborough	327,398	45.85%	376,367	52.71%	10,303	1.44%	-48,969	-6.86%	714,068
Holmes	8,080	89.01%	924	10.18%	74	0.81%	7,156	78.83%	9,078
Indian River	58,872	60.23%	37,844	38.72%	1,024	1.05%	21,028	21.51%	97,740
Jackson	15,488	68.97%	6,766	30.13%	202	0.90%	8,722	38.84%	22,456
Jefferson	4,479	52.89%	3,897	46.02%	92	1.09%	382	6.87%	8,468
Lafayette	3,128	85.42%	510	13.93%	24	0.65%	2,618	71.49%	3,662
Lake	125,859	59.56%	83,505	39.52%	1,950	0.92%	42,354	20.04%	211,314
Lee	233,247	59.09%	157,695	39.95%	3,816	0.96%	75,552	19.14%	394,758
Leon	57,453	35.14%	103,517	63.32%	2,506	1.54%	-46,064	-28.18%	163,476
Levy	16,749	72.24%	6,205	26.76%	231	1.00%	10,544	45.48%	23,185
Liberty	2,846	79.83%	694	19.47%	25	0.70%	2,152	60.36%	3,565
Madison	5,576	59.36%	3,747	39.89%	70	0.75%	1,829	19.47%	9,393
Manatee	124,987	57.47%	90,166	41.46%	2,319	1.07%	34,821	16.01%	217,472
Marion	127,826	62.44%	74,858	36.57%	2,032	0.99%	52,968	25.87%	204,716
Martin	61,168	61.82%	36,893	37.29%	881	0.89%	24,275	24.53%	98,942
Miami-Dade	532,833	45.98%	617,864	53.31%	8,221	0.71%	-85,931	-7.33%	1,158,918
Monroe	25,693	53.38%	21,881	45.46%	561	1.16%	3,812	7.92%	48,135
Nassau	42,566	72.25%	15,564	26.42%	785	1.33%	27,002	45.83%	58,915
Okaloosa	79,798	68.35%	34,248	29.34%	2,697	2.31%	45,550	39.01%	116,743
Okeechobee	11,470	71.76%	4,390	27.46%	124	0.78%	7,080	44.30%	15,984
Orange	245,398	37.80%	395,014	60.85%	8,745	1.35%	-149,616	-23.05%	649,157
Osceola	73,480	42.53%	97,297	56.31%	2,007	1.16%	-23,817	-13.78%	172,784
Palm Beach	334,711	43.21%	433,572	55.97%	6,314	0.82%	-98,861	-12.76%	774,597
Pasco	179,621	59.36%	119,073	39.35%	3,927	1.29%	60,548	20.01%	302,621
Pinellas	276,209	49.22%	277,450	49.44%	7,502	1.34%	-1,241	-0.22%	561,161
Polk	194,586	56.56%	145,049	42.16%	4,391	1.28%	49,537	14.40%	344,026
Putnam	25,514	70.05%	10,527	28.90%	381	1.05%	14,987	41.15%	36,422
St. Johns	110,946	62.66%	63,850	36.06%	2,251	1.28%	47,096	26.60%	177,047
St. Lucie	86,831	50.38%	84,137	48.82%	1,381	0.80%	2,694	1.56%	172,349
Santa Rosa	77,385	72.19%	27,612	25.76%	2,201	2.05%	49,773	46.43%	107,198
Sarasota	148,370	54.71%	120,110	44.29%	2,689	1.00%	28,260	10.42%	271,169
Seminole	125,241	47.89%	132,528	50.67%	3,764	1.44%	-7,287	-2.78%	261,533
Sumter	62,761	67.76%	29,341	31.68%	522	0.56%	33,420	36.08%	92,624
Suwannee	16,410	77.84%	4,485	21.27%	188	0.89%	11,925	56.57%	21,083
Taylor	7,751	76.45%	2,299	22.68%	88	0.87%	5,452	53.77%	10,138
Union	5,133	82.11%	1,053	16.85%	65	1.04%	4,080	65.26%	6,251
Volusia	173,821	56.42%	130,575	42.38%	3,713	1.20%	43,246	14.04%	308,109
Wakulla	12,874	69.79%	5,351	29.01%	223	1.20%	7,523	40.78%	18,448
Walton	32,947	75.23%	10,338	23.61%	510	1.16%	22,609	51.62%	43,795
Washington	9,876	80.06%	2,347	19.03%	112	0.91%	7,529	61.03%	12,335
Totals	5,668,731	51.11%	5,297,045	47.75%	126,445	1.14%	371,686	3.36%	11,092,221

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville) • Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg) • Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)

By congressional district

Trump won 15 of 27 congressional districts, while Biden won 12, including one that elected a Republican.

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	65.9%	32.4%	Matt Gaetz
2nd	67%	32%	Neal Dunn
3rd	56%	42.8%	Ted Yoho
Kat Cammack
4th	59.9%	38.9%	John Rutherford
5th	36.2%	62.7%	Al Lawson
6th	58.3%	40.8%	Michael Waltz
7th	44.2%	54.6%	Stephanie Murphy
8th	58.3%	40.6%	Bill Posey
9th	46%	52.9%	Darren Soto
10th	37%	62%	Val Demings
11th	65.4%	33.8%	Daniel Webster
12th	57.9%	41%	Gus Bilirakis
13th	47.4%	51.5%	Charlie Crist
14th	41.6%	57.2%	Kathy Castor
15th	53.7%	45.2%	Ross Spano
Scott Franklin
16th	53.6%	45.5%	Vern Buchanan
17th	63.3%	35.9%	Greg Steube
18th	53.9%	45.5%	Brian Mast
19th	59.7%	39.6%	Francis Rooney
Byron Donalds
20th	22.1%	77.3%	Alcee Hastings
21st	41.2%	58.2%	Lois Frankel
22nd	42.3%	57.2%	Ted Deutch
23rd	41.2%	58.3%	Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th	24%	75.4%	Frederica Wilson
25th	61.2%	38.2%	Mario Díaz-Balart
26th	52.5%	46.9%	Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Carlos Giménez
27th	48.1%	51.3%	Donna Shalala
Maria Elvira Salazar

Analysis

2020 United States presidential election in Florida

This election was the first time since (/wiki/1992UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninFlorida), and only the second time since (/wiki/1960UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninFlorida), that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election. It was also the first time since 1960 that both Ohio and Florida have voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election, the first time since 1992 that Florida voted Republican while neighboring Georgia voted Democratic, and the first time since 1992 that Florida voted more Republican than North Carolina. Trump also became the first Republican candidate to win Florida with a majority of the state's popular vote since George W. Bush did so in (/wiki/2004UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninFlorida).

Despite his loss statewide, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County—consolidated with Jacksonville—since Southerner Jimmy Carter in (/wiki/1976UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninFlorida), and the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in (/wiki/1948UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninFlorida). Biden also flipped Pinellas County back to the Democratic Party. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Jefferson County since Lyndon B. Johnson in (/wiki/1964UnitedStatespresidentialelection), and the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Monroe County since Grover Cleveland in (/wiki/1884UnitedStatespresidentialelection).

Also, this is the first time since (/wiki/1888UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninFlorida) that Florida increased its margin to an incumbent that lost re-election nationally. Florida was one of six states where Trump received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in 2016. Florida is one of three states that voted twice for Barack Obama and thrice for Trump, the other two being Ohio and Iowa.

Ex-felons

The United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex crimes. The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. The United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.

Miami-Dade County

In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. Mexican, Haitian, and African American precincts tended to vote for Biden, while Cuban and Colombian American precincts did so for Trump. Trump won approximately two thirds of the vote in Hialeah, whereas it was nearly evenly split four years prior. Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics. Trump's coattails played a role in the election of Miami Republicans Carlos A. Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar to the House of Representatives.

Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro. Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies.

Additionally, Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics. Trump significantly increased his share of the vote in majority-Hispanic Osceola County, winning 42.53% of the vote, the highest since (/wiki/2004UnitedStatespresidentialelectioninFlorida).

Edison exit polls

<table><thead><tr><th>2020 presidential election in Florida by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Demographic subgroup</td><td>Biden</td><td>Trump</td><td>% of total vote</td></tr><tr><td>Total vote</td><td>47.86</td><td>51.22</td><td>100</td></tr><tr><td>Ideology</td></tr><tr><td>Liberals</td><td>83</td><td>16</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>Moderates</td><td>59</td><td>40</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>Conservatives</td><td>16</td><td>83</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Party</td></tr><tr><td>Democrats</td><td>94</td><td>5</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>Republicans</td><td>7</td><td>93</td><td>38</td></tr><tr><td>Independents</td><td>54</td><td>43</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>Gender</td></tr><tr><td>Men</td><td>45</td><td>54</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>Women</td><td>51</td><td>48</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>Race/ethnicity</td></tr><tr><td>White</td><td>37</td><td>62</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>Black</td><td>89</td><td>10</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>Latino</td><td>53</td><td>46</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>Asian</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Other</td><td>55</td><td>44</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Age</td></tr><tr><td>18–24 years old</td><td>57</td><td>42</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>25–29 years old</td><td>64</td><td>35</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>30–39 years old</td><td>48</td><td>50</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>40–49 years old</td><td>48</td><td>51</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>50–64 years old</td><td>45</td><td>54</td><td>28</td></tr><tr><td>65 and older</td><td>45</td><td>55</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>Sexual orientation</td></tr><tr><td>LGBT</td><td>83</td><td>15</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>Not LGBT</td><td>46</td><td>53</td><td>94</td></tr><tr><td>Education</td></tr><tr><td>High school or less</td><td>44</td><td>56</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>Some college education</td><td>50</td><td>49</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>Associate degree</td><td>45</td><td>53</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>Bachelor's degree</td><td>49</td><td>50</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>Postgraduate degree</td><td>53</td><td>45</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>Issue regarded as most important</td></tr><tr><td>Racial inequality</td><td>86</td><td>12</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>Coronavirus</td><td>88</td><td>10</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>Economy</td><td>13</td><td>87</td><td>38</td></tr><tr><td>Crime and safety</td><td>12</td><td>88</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>Health care</td><td>83</td><td>16</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>Region</td></tr><tr><td>North/Panhandle</td><td>41</td><td>58</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>Orlando/Central Atlantic</td><td>51</td><td>48</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>Tampa Bay area</td><td>48</td><td>51</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>Gulf Coast/Mid-Florida</td><td>39</td><td>60</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>Miami/Gold Coast</td><td>58</td><td>41</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>Area type</td></tr><tr><td>Urban</td><td>55</td><td>44</td><td>41</td></tr><tr><td>Suburban</td><td>44</td><td>55</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>Rural</td><td>38</td><td>61</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>Family's financial situation today</td></tr><tr><td>Better than four years ago</td><td>18</td><td>81</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>Worse than four years ago</td><td>84</td><td>15</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>About the same</td><td>67</td><td>32</td><td>36</td></tr></tbody></table>