2018 Ohio gubernatorial election

2018 Ohio gubernatorial election

The 2018 Ohio gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Ohio, concurrently with the election of Ohio's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various Ohio and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor John Kasich was term-limited and could not seek re-election for a third consecutive term.

Republicans nominated Ohio Attorney General and former U.S. senator Mike DeWine, while Democrats nominated former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director and former Ohio attorney general Richard Cordray. This was the second contest between DeWine and Cordray, following the 2010 attorney general election, which DeWine won, 47.5% to 46.3%.

In 2018, DeWine defeated Cordray 50.4% to 46.7%, in what was considered a minor upset. Despite Cordray's loss, he became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win Cincinnati's Hamilton County since Dick Celeste in (/wiki/1982Ohiogubernatorialelection). Likewise, DeWine became the first Republican to win in the historically Democratic Monroe County in a gubernatorial election since (/wiki/2002Ohiogubernatorialelection) as the county took a sharp turn to the right. With Democratic senator Sherrod Brown winning re-election in the same year, this was the first election since (/wiki/1974Ohiogubernatorialelection) in which Ohio simultaneously voted for a gubernatorial nominee and a U.S. Senate nominee of opposite parties.

DeWine and Husted took office on January 14, 2019.

Republican primary

Nominated

• Mike DeWine, Ohio attorney general, former U.S. senator, former lieutenant governor of Ohio, and former U.S. representative • Running mate: Jon Husted, Ohio Secretary of State and former speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives

Eliminated in primary

• Mary Taylor, lieutenant governor of Ohio • Running mate: Nathan Estruth, businessman

Withdrew

• Jon A. Husted, Ohio Secretary of State (running for lieutenant governor) • Jim Renacci, U.S. representative (running for the U.S. Senate) • Running mate: Amy Murray, Cincinnati councilwoman

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike DeWine	Mary Taylor	Other	Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University	April 24 – May 2, 2018	323	–	52%	24%	–	25%
Remington Research Group (R-Taylor)	April 10, 2018	1,064	± 3.1%	42%	32%	–	26%
Fallon Research	April 4–7, 2018	502	± 4.4%	43%	26%	–	31%
SurveyUSA	March 16–20, 2018	541	± 5.8%	50%	18%	–	31%
TRZ Communications (R-WTPC)	February 17, 2018	1,152	± 3.0%	61%	39%	–	–
35%	16%	15%	33%
Fallon Research	January 16–19, 2018	286	–	54%	14%	–	32%

Results

Results by county:   DeWine   Taylor

Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mike DeWine	494,766	59.8
	Republican	Mary Taylor	332,273	40.2
Total votes	827,039	100.0

Democratic primary

Nominated

• Richard Cordray, former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, former Ohio attorney general, former Ohio state treasurer, nominee for OH-15 in (/wiki/1992UnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativeselections#Ohio), nominee for attorney general in (/wiki/OhioAttorneyGeneral#Elections) and (/wiki/OhioAttorneyGeneral#Elections), and candidate for U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2000UnitedStatesSenateelectioninOhio) • Running mate: Betty Sutton, former U.S. representative

Eliminated in primary

• Larry Ealy, former male stripper and candidate for governor in (/wiki/Ohiogubernatorialelection,2014) • Running mate: Jeffrey Lynn • Dennis Kucinich, former U.S. representative, former mayor of Cleveland, candidate for secretary of state in (/wiki/OhioSecretaryofStateelections), and candidate for president of the United States in (/wiki/DennisKucinichpresidentialcampaign,2004) and (/wiki/DennisKucinichpresidentialcampaign,2008) • Running mate: Tara Samples, Akron city councilwoman • Bill O'Neill, Justice of the Ohio Supreme Court and nominee for OH-14 in (/wiki/DavidMacko) and (/wiki/UnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativeselectionsinOhio,2010#District14) • Running mate: Chantelle Lewis, elementary school principal and former East Cleveland City councilwoman • Paul Ray • Running mate: Jerry Schroeder • Joe Schiavoni, state senator and former Minority Leader of the Ohio Senate • Running mate: Stephanie Dodd, State Board of Education member

Failed to qualify for ballot

• Jon Heavey, physician • Dave Kiefer, former Wayne County Commissioner and Republican candidate for state representative in 2016

Withdrew

• Connie Pillich, former state representative and nominee for Ohio state treasurer in (/wiki/Ohioelections,2014#Treasurer) (endorsed Richard Cordray) • Running mate: Scott Schertzer, mayor of Marion, OH • Betty Sutton, former U.S. representative (running for lieutenant governor) • Nan Whaley, mayor of Dayton (endorsed Richard Cordray)

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Richard Cordray</th><th>Dennis Kucinich</th><th>Bill O'Neill</th><th>Connie Pillich</th><th>Joe Schiavoni</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Baldwin Wallace University</td><td>April 24 – May 2, 2018</td><td>333</td><td>–</td><td>31%</td><td>15%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>41%</td></tr><tr><td>Fallon Research</td><td>April 4–7, 2018</td><td>500</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>28%</td><td>13%</td><td>3%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td><td>51%</td></tr><tr><td>SurveyUSA</td><td>March 16–20, 2018</td><td>509</td><td>± 5.3%</td><td>21%</td><td>21%</td><td>4%</td><td>5%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>46%</td></tr><tr><td>Fallon Research</td><td>January 16–19, 2018</td><td>248</td><td>–</td><td>23%</td><td>16%</td><td>3%</td><td>2%</td><td>4%</td><td>–</td><td>52%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Results

Results by county:   Cordray   Schiavoni

<table><thead><tr><th>Party</th><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>%</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Richard Cordray</td><td>423,264</td><td>62.3</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Dennis Kucinich</td><td>155,694</td><td>22.9</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Joe Schiavoni</td><td>62,315</td><td>9.2</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Bill O'Neill</td><td>22,196</td><td>3.3</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Paul Ray</td><td>9,373</td><td>1.4</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Larry Ealy</td><td>6,896</td><td>1.0</td></tr><tr><td>Total votes</td><td>679,738</td><td>100.0</td></tr></tbody></table>

Libertarian primary

Nominated

• Travis Irvine, filmmaker and writer • Running mate: Todd Grayson

Withdrew

• Bruce Jaynes, entrepreneur • Stephen Quinn, student

Green primary

2018 Ohio gubernatorial election

Gadell-Newton

Nominated

• Constance Gadell-Newton, attorney, co-chair of the Ohio Green Party and nominee for the State House in 2016 • Running mate: Brett R. Joseph

General election

Candidates

• Richard Cordray (Democratic), former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, former Ohio attorney general and former Ohio state treasurer • Running mate: Betty Sutton, former U.S. representative • Mike DeWine (Republican), Ohio Attorney General and former U.S. senator • Running mate: Jon A. Husted, Secretary of State of Ohio and former Speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives • Constance Gadell-Newton (Green), attorney, co-chair of the Ohio Green Party and nominee for the State House in 2016 • Running mate: Brett R. Joseph, attorney, educator and small businessman • Travis Irvine (Libertarian) • Running mate: Todd Grayson, former Perrysburg city councilman

Debates

Host network/sponsors	Location	Date	Link(s)	Possible participants
Richard Cordray (D)	Mike DeWine (R)	Travis Irvine (L)	Constance Gadell-Newton (G)
WHIO-TV	University of Dayton	September 19, 2018		Invited	Invited	Not Invited	Not Invited
WCMH-TV	Marietta College	October 1, 2018		Invited	Invited	Not Invited	Not Invited
Ohio Debate Commission	Cleveland State University	October 8, 2018		Invited	Invited	Not Invited	Not Invited

Predictions

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Tossup</td><td>October 26, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>The Washington Post</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>FiveThirtyEight</td><td>Lean D (flip)</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Rothenberg Political Report</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 1, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Lean D (flip)</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>RealClearPolitics</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 4, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Daily Kos</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Fox News</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Politico</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Governing</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr></tbody></table>

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Mike DeWine (R)</th><th>Richard Cordray (D)</th><th>Travis Irvine (L)</th><th>Constance Gadell- Newton (G)</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Change Research</td><td>November 2–4, 2018</td><td>923</td><td>–</td><td>43%</td><td>48%</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>The Trafalgar Group (R)</td><td>November 2–4, 2018</td><td>1,948</td><td>± 2.2%</td><td>42%</td><td>46%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>7%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Research Co.</td><td>November 1–3, 2018</td><td>450</td><td>± 4.6%</td><td>44%</td><td>44%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>2%</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>Cygnal (R)</td><td>October 30–31, 2018</td><td>503</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>43%</td><td>43%</td><td>3%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>October 29–30, 2018</td><td>789</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>43%</td><td>48%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>October 26–28, 2018</td><td>566</td><td>± 4.3%</td><td>46%</td><td>49%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>2%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Baldwin Wallace University</td><td>October 19–27, 2018</td><td>1,051</td><td>± 3.8%</td><td>39%</td><td>39%</td><td>4%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>41%</td><td>42%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Suffolk University</td><td>October 4–8, 2018</td><td>500</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>40%</td><td>46%</td><td>2%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>Baldwin Wallace University</td><td>September 8 – October 8, 2018</td><td>1,017</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>40%</td><td>37%</td><td>4%</td><td>3%</td><td>–</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>42%</td><td>39%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>19%</td></tr><tr><td>University of Akron</td><td>September 10 – October 4, 2018</td><td>1,000</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>37%</td><td>36%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>27%</td></tr><tr><td>Ipsos</td><td>September 13–21, 2018</td><td>1,074</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>45%</td><td>44%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>2%</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>Triton Polling & Research (R)</td><td>September 18–20, 2018</td><td>1,003</td><td>± 3.1%</td><td>49%</td><td>44%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>Marist College</td><td>September 16–20, 2018</td><td>564 LV</td><td>± 5.0%</td><td>44%</td><td>44%</td><td>3%</td><td>3%</td><td><1%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>47%</td><td>47%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>1%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>796 RV</td><td>± 4.2%</td><td>42%</td><td>43%</td><td>4%</td><td>4%</td><td>1%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>47%</td><td>47%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>1%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Baldwin Wallace University</td><td>September 5–15, 2018</td><td>1,048</td><td>± 3.6%</td><td>42%</td><td>37%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>21%</td></tr><tr><td>Morning Consult</td><td>September 2–11, 2018</td><td>1,592</td><td>± 2.0%</td><td>39%</td><td>38%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>Change Research (D-Innovation Ohio)</td><td>August 31 – September 4, 2018</td><td>822</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>45%</td><td>43%</td><td>6%</td><td>3%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>43%</td><td>43%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>TRZ Communications (R-WTPC)</td><td>June 30 – July 10, 2018</td><td>1,485</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>42%</td><td>38%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Marist College</td><td>June 17–22, 2018</td><td>778</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>46%</td><td>42%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>2%</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac University</td><td>June 7–12, 2018</td><td>1,082</td><td>± 3.7%</td><td>40%</td><td>42%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>2%</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>Suffolk University</td><td>June 6–11, 2018</td><td>500</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>36%</td><td>43%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>2%</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>America First Action (R)</td><td>May 29–31, 2018</td><td>400</td><td>± 4.9%</td><td>45%</td><td>38%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>Fallon Research</td><td>May 21–25, 2018</td><td>800</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>40%</td><td>34%</td><td>–</td><td>1%</td><td>3%</td><td>22%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)</td><td>May 6–7, 2018</td><td>618</td><td>± 3.9%</td><td>39%</td><td>44%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)</td><td>April 25–26, 2018</td><td>770</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>38%</td><td>47%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>SurveyUSA</td><td>March 16–20, 2018</td><td>1,408</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>47%</td><td>39%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)</td><td>January 22–23, 2018</td><td>585</td><td>± 4.1%</td><td>45%</td><td>44%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Fallon Research</td><td>January 16–19, 2018</td><td>801</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>49%</td><td>28%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>Luntz Global</td><td>June 12, 2017</td><td>500</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>55%</td><td>31%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>14%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Results

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Mike DeWine	2,235,825	50.40%	−13.24%
	Democratic	Richard Cordray	2,070,046	46.67%	+13.64%
	Libertarian	Travis Irvine	80,055	1.80%	N/A
	Green	Constance Gadell-Newton	49,536	1.12%	−2.21%
	Write-in	Renea Turner (write-in)	185	0.00%	N/A
	Write-in	Richard Duncan (write-in)	132	0.00%	N/A
	Write-in	Rebecca Ayres (write-in)	41	0.00%	N/A
Total votes	4,435,820	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Monroe (largest city: Woodsfield)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Cuyahoga (largest city: Cleveland) • Franklin (largest city: Columbus) • Hamilton (largest city: Cincinnati) • Lorain (largest city: Lorain) • Lucas (largest city: Toledo) • Mahoning (largest city: Youngstown) • Summit (largest city: Akron) • Trumbull (largest city: Warren)

By congressional district

District	DeWine	Cordray	Representative
1st	52%	45%	Steve Chabot
2nd	54%	43%	Brad Wenstrup
3rd	28%	70%	Joyce Beatty
4th	62%	34%	Jim Jordan
5th	58%	38%	Bob Latta
6th	64%	33%	Bill Johnson
7th	59%	37%	Bob Gibbs
8th	64%	32%	Warren Davidson
9th	35%	61%	Marcy Kaptur
10th	52%	45%	Mike Turner
11th	18%	79%	Marcia Fudge
12th	52%	45%	Troy Balderson
13th	40%	57%	Tim Ryan
14th	52%	45%	David Joyce
15th	53%	45%	Steve Stivers
16th	54%	43%	Anthony Gonzalez