2018 Florida gubernatorial election

2018 Florida gubernatorial election

The 2018 Florida gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Florida, alongside an election to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Incumbent two-term Republican Governor Rick Scott was term-limited and could not run for a third term, and he successfully ran for Florida's Class I Senate seat.

Republican U.S. representative Ron DeSantis narrowly defeated Democratic mayor of Tallahassee Andrew Gillum for the governorship, in what some considered an upset. The candidate filing deadline was June 22, 2018, and primary elections were held on August 28. Florida uses a closed primary process, in which the selection of each party's candidates for a general election is limited to registered members of that party; Gillum won the Democratic primary and DeSantis the Republican primary.

The close margin mandated a machine recount, which had a deadline of November 15, 2018. After the recount was complete, DeSantis was certified as the winner. Gillum conceded on November 17. DeSantis's victory marked the sixth straight election in which Florida elected a Republican to the governorship, and the third in a row that neither candidate received over 50% of the vote. With a margin of 0.4%, this election was the closest race of the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle. Gillum became the first Democrat to win Duval County since (/wiki/1986Floridagubernatorialelection) and Seminole County since (/wiki/1990Floridagubernatorialelection), while DeSantis became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win Jefferson County since (/wiki/1884Floridagubernatorialelection).

Republican primary

Nominee

• Ron DeSantis, U.S. representative from the 6th district and Iraq War veteran

Eliminated in primary

• Don Baldauf, contractor • Timothy Devine, candidate for governor of Florida in (/wiki/2014Floridagubernatorialelection) • Bob Langford, attorney • John Joseph Mercadante, Republican National Committee official • Bruce Nathan, physical therapist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2016UnitedStatesSenateelectioninFlorida) • Adam Putnam, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture and former U.S. representative • Bob White, chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus of Florida

Withdrawn

• Issak Almaleh, notary • Frederick Buntin, incarcerated felon • Usha Jain, medical director • Jack Latvala, former Florida state senator • Armando Adames Rivas, banker • Angel Rivera, businessman, political strategist • Nathan Dale Wilson

Declined

• Jeff Atwater, former chief financial officer of Florida • Pam Bondi, Florida Attorney General (endorsed Putnam) • Richard Corcoran, Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives (endorsed Putnam) • John Delaney, former mayor of Jacksonville • Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas and candidate for president in (/wiki/RepublicanPartypresidentialprimaries,2008) and in (/wiki/RepublicanPartypresidentialprimaries,2016) • Francis Rooney, U.S. representative • Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida and candidate for president in (/wiki/RepublicanPartypresidentialprimaries,2016) • Will Weatherford, former speaker of the Florida House of Representatives

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Richard Corcoran</th><th>Ron DeSantis</th><th>Jack Latvala</th><th>Adam Putnam</th><th>Bob White</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>August 21–25, 2018</td><td>579</td><td>± 4.1%</td><td>–</td><td>39%</td><td>–</td><td>27%</td><td>6%</td><td>4%</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>August 22–23, 2018</td><td>2,141</td><td>± 2.1%</td><td>–</td><td>56%</td><td>–</td><td>33%</td><td>3%</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>August 21–22, 2018</td><td>321</td><td>± 5.5%</td><td>–</td><td>39%</td><td>–</td><td>24%</td><td>6%</td><td>4%</td><td>26%</td></tr><tr><td>Florida Atlantic University</td><td>August 16–20, 2018</td><td>222</td><td>± 6.5%</td><td>–</td><td>32%</td><td>–</td><td>31%</td><td>2%</td><td>13%</td><td>22%</td></tr><tr><td>Saint Leo University</td><td>August 10–16, 2018</td><td>172</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>41%</td><td>–</td><td>52%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>SurveyUSA</td><td>August 10–13, 2018</td><td>558</td><td>± 5.2%</td><td>–</td><td>40%</td><td>–</td><td>38%</td><td>2%</td><td>5%</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>North Star Opinion Research (R-DeSantis)</td><td>August 5–7, 2018</td><td>600</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>–</td><td>50%</td><td>–</td><td>30%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Mason-Dixon</td><td>July 23–25, 2018</td><td>500</td><td>± 4.5%</td><td>–</td><td>41%</td><td>–</td><td>29%</td><td>0%</td><td>2%</td><td>28%</td></tr><tr><td>Florida Atlantic University</td><td>July 20–21, 2018</td><td>262</td><td>± 6.0%</td><td>–</td><td>36%</td><td>–</td><td>27%</td><td>3%</td><td>12%</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>Clearview Research</td><td>July 14–19, 2018</td><td>700</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>–</td><td>38%</td><td>–</td><td>39%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>July 16–17, 2018</td><td>1,709</td><td>± 2.4%</td><td>–</td><td>50%</td><td>–</td><td>30%</td><td>4%</td><td>–</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>July 13–14, 2018</td><td>905</td><td>± 3.3%</td><td>–</td><td>35%</td><td>–</td><td>29%</td><td>4%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)</td><td>July 8–12, 2018</td><td>349</td><td>± 5.2%</td><td>–</td><td>42%</td><td>–</td><td>30%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>27%</td></tr><tr><td>Remington (R-Tenth Amendment Project)</td><td>July 2–5, 2018</td><td>2,826</td><td>± 1.8%</td><td>–</td><td>43%</td><td>–</td><td>26%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>1892 Polling (R-DeSantis)</td><td>July 2, 2018</td><td>800</td><td>± 3.4%</td><td>–</td><td>47%</td><td>–</td><td>28%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Marist College</td><td>June 17–21, 2018</td><td>326</td><td>± 6.7%</td><td>–</td><td>21%</td><td>–</td><td>38%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>39%</td></tr><tr><td>Fox News</td><td>June 15–19, 2018</td><td>901</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>–</td><td>17%</td><td>–</td><td>32%</td><td>3%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>May 31 – June 15, 2018</td><td>543</td><td>± 4.2%</td><td>4%</td><td>19%</td><td>–</td><td>29%</td><td>5%</td><td>–</td><td>43%</td></tr><tr><td>Cherry Communications</td><td>June 7–9, 2018</td><td>501</td><td>± 5.3%</td><td>–</td><td>15%</td><td>–</td><td>32%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td><td>48%</td></tr><tr><td>Saint Leo University</td><td>May 25–31, 2018</td><td>175</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>13%</td><td>–</td><td>35%</td><td>–</td><td>9%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Florida Atlantic University</td><td>May 4–7, 2018</td><td>371</td><td>± 5.0%</td><td>–</td><td>16%</td><td>–</td><td>15%</td><td>3%</td><td>24%</td><td>43%</td></tr><tr><td>1892 Polling (R-DeSantis)</td><td>April 19–23, 2018</td><td>800</td><td>± 3.4%</td><td>7%</td><td>30%</td><td>–</td><td>23%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>40%</td></tr><tr><td>–</td><td>30%</td><td>–</td><td>26%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>February 26 – March 19, 2018</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>19%</td><td>0%</td><td>17%</td><td>0%</td><td>–</td><td>60%</td></tr><tr><td>North Star Opinion Research (R-DeSantis)</td><td>March 12–15, 2018</td><td>600</td><td>–</td><td><6%</td><td>21%</td><td>–</td><td>19%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>–</td><td>28%</td><td>–</td><td>23%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Saint Leo University</td><td>February 18–24, 2018</td><td>175</td><td>–</td><td>7%</td><td>14%</td><td>3%</td><td>15%</td><td>5%</td><td>9%</td><td>46%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>February 1–18, 2018</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>16%</td><td>0%</td><td>18%</td><td>2%</td><td>–</td><td>61%</td></tr><tr><td>Mason-Dixon</td><td>January 29 – February 1, 2018</td><td>500</td><td>± 4.5%</td><td>7%</td><td>23%</td><td>–</td><td>27%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>43%</td></tr><tr><td>Remington</td><td>December 30–31, 2017</td><td>1,423</td><td>± 2.6%</td><td>3%</td><td>28%</td><td>–</td><td>25%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>December 19–24, 2017</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>2%</td><td>12%</td><td>2%</td><td>23%</td><td>1%</td><td>–</td><td>60%</td></tr><tr><td>Saint Leo University</td><td>November 19–24, 2017</td><td>166</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td><td>15%</td><td>4%</td><td>10%</td><td>63%</td></tr><tr><td>Cherry Communications</td><td>September 17–24, 2017</td><td>256</td><td>–</td><td>1%</td><td>9%</td><td>26%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>59%</td></tr><tr><td>Saint Leo University</td><td>September 10–16, 2017</td><td>173</td><td>–</td><td>4%</td><td>7%</td><td>20%</td><td>2%</td><td>11%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Florida Atlantic University</td><td>August 24–26, 2017</td><td>304</td><td>± 6.5%</td><td>10%</td><td>9%</td><td>27%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>53%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Results

Results by county:   DeSantis   Putnam

Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ron DeSantis	916,298	56.5%
	Republican	Adam Putnam	592,518	36.5%
	Republican	Bob White	32,710	2.0%
	Republican	Timothy M. Devine	21,380	1.3%
	Republican	Bob Langford	19,842	1.2%
	Republican	Bruce Nathan	14,556	0.9%
	Republican	Don Baldauf	13,173	0.8%
	Republican	John Joseph Mercadante	11,647	0.7%
Total votes	1,622,124	100.0%

Democratic primary

Nominee

• Andrew Gillum, mayor of Tallahassee

Eliminated in primary

• Gwen Graham, former U.S. representative and daughter of former U.S. senator and former governor Bob Graham • Jeff Greene, real estate billionaire and candidate for the U.S. Senate in (/wiki/2010UnitedStatesSenateelectioninFlorida) • Chris King, entrepreneur and founder of Elevation Financial Group • Philip Levine, former mayor of Miami Beach • Alex Lundmark, real estate agent • John Wetherbee, entrepreneur

Withdrew

• Henry E. Davis, judge • Richard Paul Dembinsky, candidate for U.S. representative in (/wiki/UnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativeselectionsinFlorida,2016) and candidate for governor in (/wiki/Floridagubernatorialelection,2006) • Lucretia Fordyce, activist • Josue Larose, perennial candidate • Brooke Russell Locke Marx, notary • Louis McClanahan, plant operator

Declined

• Bob Buckhorn, mayor of Tampa • Kathy Castor, U.S. representative (ran for reelection) • Charlie Crist, U.S. representative, former governor of Florida, and nominee for governor in (/wiki/Floridagubernatorialelection,2014) (ran for reelection) • Buddy Dyer, mayor of Orlando • Rick Kriseman, mayor of St. Petersburg • John Morgan, lawyer and medical marijuana advocate • Patrick Murphy, former U.S. representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in (/wiki/UnitedStatesSenateelectioninFlorida,2016) • Bill Nelson, U.S. senator (ran for reelection) • Jeremy Ring, former Florida state senator (ran for CFO) • Jack Seiler, mayor of Fort Lauderdale

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Andrew Gillum</th><th>Gwen Graham</th><th>Jeff Greene</th><th>Chris King</th><th>Philip Levine</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>August 25–26, 2018</td><td>2,342</td><td>± 2.0%</td><td>25%</td><td>32%</td><td>11%</td><td>2%</td><td>22%</td><td>4%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>August 21–25, 2018</td><td>531</td><td>± 4.3%</td><td>16%</td><td>26%</td><td>19%</td><td>5%</td><td>18%</td><td>–</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>August 21–22, 2018</td><td>308</td><td>± 5.6%</td><td>15%</td><td>26%</td><td>19%</td><td>5%</td><td>18%</td><td>–</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D)</td><td>August 19–21, 2018</td><td>669</td><td>± 3.8%</td><td>18%</td><td>25%</td><td>13%</td><td>2%</td><td>26%</td><td>–</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>Florida Atlantic University</td><td>August 16–20, 2018</td><td>280</td><td>± 6.3%</td><td>11%</td><td>29%</td><td>11%</td><td>10%</td><td>17%</td><td>3%</td><td>19%</td></tr><tr><td>Change Research (D-Gillum)</td><td>August 18–19, 2018</td><td>1,178</td><td>–</td><td>33%</td><td>22%</td><td>10%</td><td>–</td><td>22%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>August 18–19, 2018</td><td>2,202</td><td>± 2.1%</td><td>21%</td><td>27%</td><td>15%</td><td>3%</td><td>25%</td><td>4%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Saint Leo University</td><td>August 10–16, 2018</td><td>188</td><td>–</td><td>15%</td><td>31%</td><td>17%</td><td>5%</td><td>22%</td><td>4%</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D)</td><td>August 11–14, 2018</td><td>600</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>15%</td><td>24%</td><td>13%</td><td>3%</td><td>27%</td><td>–</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>SurveyUSA</td><td>August 10–13, 2018</td><td>631</td><td>± 5.2%</td><td>11%</td><td>22%</td><td>16%</td><td>3%</td><td>22%</td><td>2%</td><td>24%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Polling (D-Levine)</td><td>August 5–6, 2018</td><td>572</td><td>–</td><td>13%</td><td>26%</td><td>16%</td><td>4%</td><td>22%</td><td>–</td><td>19%</td></tr><tr><td>ALG Research (D-Graham)</td><td>July 29 – August 2, 2018</td><td>800</td><td>± 3.4%</td><td>10%</td><td>33%</td><td>13%</td><td>3%</td><td>17%</td><td>–</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>July 30–31, 2018</td><td>1,652</td><td>± 2.4%</td><td>12%</td><td>29%</td><td>23%</td><td>3%</td><td>19%</td><td>4%</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>Mason-Dixon</td><td>July 23–25, 2018</td><td>500</td><td>± 4.5%</td><td>10%</td><td>27%</td><td>12%</td><td>7%</td><td>18%</td><td>1%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Florida Atlantic University</td><td>July 20–21, 2018</td><td>271</td><td>± 5.9%</td><td>7%</td><td>20%</td><td>14%</td><td>9%</td><td>16%</td><td>3%</td><td>31%</td></tr><tr><td>Associated Industries of Florida</td><td>July 16–18, 2018</td><td>800</td><td>–</td><td>12%</td><td>24%</td><td>13%</td><td>4%</td><td>16%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Frederick Polls</td><td>July 2018</td><td>506</td><td>–</td><td>15%</td><td>28%</td><td>23%</td><td>7%</td><td>27%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>July 14–15, 2018</td><td>1,314</td><td>± 2.7%</td><td>10%</td><td>22%</td><td>22%</td><td>3%</td><td>19%</td><td>1%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>July 13–14, 2018</td><td>1,540</td><td>± 2.5%</td><td>10%</td><td>27%</td><td>18%</td><td>–</td><td>17%</td><td>–</td><td>27%</td></tr><tr><td>Marist College</td><td>June 17–21, 2018</td><td>344</td><td>± 6.5%</td><td>8%</td><td>17%</td><td>4%</td><td>3%</td><td>19%</td><td>1%</td><td>47%</td></tr><tr><td>RABA Research</td><td>June 15–16, 2018</td><td>660</td><td>± 3.8%</td><td>8%</td><td>26%</td><td>3%</td><td>15%</td><td>27%</td><td>–</td><td>21%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>May 31 – June 15, 2018</td><td>485</td><td>± 4.5%</td><td>29%</td><td>24%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>17%</td><td>–</td><td>27%</td></tr><tr><td>Let's Preserve the American Dream</td><td>June 6–9, 2018</td><td>800</td><td>± 3.1%</td><td>11%</td><td>21%</td><td>3%</td><td>4%</td><td>24%</td><td>–</td><td>37%</td></tr><tr><td>Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D)</td><td>June 3–5, 2018</td><td>600</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>11%</td><td>16%</td><td>4%</td><td>6%</td><td>32%</td><td>–</td><td>31%</td></tr><tr><td>Saint Leo University</td><td>May 25–31, 2018</td><td>195</td><td>–</td><td>10%</td><td>14%</td><td>–</td><td>6%</td><td>14%</td><td>9%</td><td>47%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Polling (D-Levine)</td><td>May 21–22, 2018</td><td>583</td><td>–</td><td>12%</td><td>20%</td><td>–</td><td>6%</td><td>30%</td><td>–</td><td>33%</td></tr><tr><td>Change Research (D-Gillum)</td><td>May 8–11, 2018</td><td>1,107</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>13%</td><td>13%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td><td>20%</td><td>–</td><td>52%</td></tr><tr><td>Florida Atlantic University</td><td>May 4–7, 2018</td><td>372</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>6%</td><td>15%</td><td>–</td><td>10%</td><td>16%</td><td>11%</td><td>42%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)</td><td>April 10–11, 2018</td><td>491</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td><td>23%</td><td>–</td><td>4%</td><td>29%</td><td>–</td><td>36%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Polling</td><td>March 23–25, 2018</td><td>613</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td><td>19%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td><td>22%</td><td>–</td><td>46%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>February 26 – March 19, 2018</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>11%</td><td>9%</td><td>2%</td><td>2%</td><td>13%</td><td>–</td><td>64%</td></tr><tr><td>Saint Leo University</td><td>February 18–24, 2018</td><td>190</td><td>–</td><td>10%</td><td>17%</td><td>5%</td><td>7%</td><td>8%</td><td>3%</td><td>50%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>February 1–18, 2018</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>9%</td><td>12%</td><td>1%</td><td>2%</td><td>12%</td><td>–</td><td>63%</td></tr><tr><td>Mason-Dixon</td><td>January 29 – February 1, 2018</td><td>500</td><td>± 4.5%</td><td>10%</td><td>20%</td><td>–</td><td>4%</td><td>17%</td><td>–</td><td>49%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>December 19–24, 2017</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>12%</td><td>18%</td><td>2%</td><td>3%</td><td>6%</td><td>–</td><td>60%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Results

Results by county:   Gillum   Graham   Levine

<table><thead><tr><th>Party</th><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>%</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Andrew Gillum</td><td>517,417</td><td>34.3%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Gwen Graham</td><td>472,735</td><td>31.3%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Philip Levine</td><td>306,450</td><td>20.3%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Jeff Greene</td><td>151,935</td><td>10.1%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Chris King</td><td>37,464</td><td>2.5%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>John Wetherbee</td><td>14,355</td><td>1.0%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Alex "Lundy" Lundmark</td><td>8,628</td><td>0.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Total votes</td><td>1,508,984</td><td>100.0%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Independent and third party candidates

Declared

• Darcy Richardson, author and candidate for president in (/wiki/2012DemocraticPartypresidentialprimaries)

Withdrawn

• Riquet Caballero, banker and Afro-Cuban activist (running for state representative) • Randy Wiseman, former chair of the Lake County School Board, candidate for state representative in 2004, and candidate for mayor of Mount Dora in 2013

• Daniel P. Zutler, businessman and candidate for president in (/wiki/2016UnitedStatespresidentialelection)

Declared

• Ryan Christopher Foley, former emergency medical technician • Kyle "KC" Gibson, pastor • Bruce Stanley, environmental activist

Declined

• Grant Hill, former professional basketball player • John Morgan, lawyer and medical marijuana advocate • Ellen Marie Wilds, JPO supervisor (became Kyle "KC" Gibson's running mate)

General election

Debates

Dates	Location	DeSantis	Gillum	Link
October 21, 2018	Tampa, Florida	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN
October 24, 2018	Weston, Florida	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN

First debate

The first debate, moderated by CNN's Jake Tapper, was hosted on October 21, 2018, at WEDU, Tampa, Florida. It was an hour long debate featuring topics like climate change, minimum wage, health care, gun control, the NRA, DeSantis's "monkey up" comment and President Donald Trump being a role model for children.

This debate was held a day before early voting started in Florida on October 22, 2018.

Second debate

The second debate occurred on October 24, 2018, and was hosted in Weston, Florida. It was moderated by Leadership Florida and the Florida Press Association.

Predictions

<table><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Ranking</th><th>As of</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Cook Political Report</td><td>Tossup</td><td>October 26, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>The Washington Post</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>FiveThirtyEight</td><td>Likely D (flip)</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Rothenberg Political Report</td><td>Tilt D (flip)</td><td>November 1, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Sabato's Crystal Ball</td><td>Lean D (flip)</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>RealClearPolitics</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 4, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Daily Kos</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Fox News</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Politico</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr><tr><td>Governing</td><td>Tossup</td><td>November 5, 2018</td></tr></tbody></table>

Polling

<table><thead><tr><th>Poll source</th><th>Date(s) administered</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Margin of error</th><th>Ron DeSantis (R)</th><th>Andrew Gillum (D)</th><th>Other</th><th>Undecided</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Trafalgar Group (R)</td><td>November 4–5, 2018</td><td>1,484</td><td>± 2.5%</td><td>50%</td><td>47%</td><td>1%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>HarrisX</td><td>November 3–5, 2018</td><td>600</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>46%</td><td>49%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>November 3–4, 2018</td><td>3,088</td><td>± 1.8%</td><td>45%</td><td>50%</td><td>2%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>HarrisX</td><td>November 2–4, 2018</td><td>600</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>46%</td><td>48%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac University</td><td>October 29 – November 4, 2018</td><td>1,142</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>43%</td><td>50%</td><td>1%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>November 1–3, 2018</td><td>784</td><td>± 3.7%</td><td>46%</td><td>51%</td><td>2%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>HarrisX</td><td>November 1–3, 2018</td><td>600</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>46%</td><td>49%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Research Co.</td><td>November 1–3, 2018</td><td>450</td><td>± 4.6%</td><td>46%</td><td>47%</td><td>2%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>November 1–2, 2018</td><td>2,733</td><td>± 1.9%</td><td>46%</td><td>48%</td><td>2%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>HarrisX</td><td>October 31 – November 2, 2018</td><td>600</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>45%</td><td>50%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Marist College</td><td>October 30 – November 2, 2018</td><td>595 LV</td><td>± 5.0%</td><td>46%</td><td>50%</td><td><1%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>917 RV</td><td>± 4.1%</td><td>45%</td><td>50%</td><td><1%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>October 29 – November 2, 2018</td><td>753</td><td>± 3.6%</td><td>47%</td><td>48%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>HarrisX</td><td>October 30 – November 1, 2018</td><td>600</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>45%</td><td>50%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Targoz Market Research</td><td>October 28–31, 2018</td><td>558</td><td>–</td><td>48%</td><td>47%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>HarrisX</td><td>October 29–31, 2018</td><td>600</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>43%</td><td>50%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>MWR Research/Consumer Energy Alliance</td><td>October 25–31, 2020</td><td>1,005</td><td>–</td><td>40%</td><td>41%</td><td>1%</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>The Trafalgar Group (R)</td><td>October 29–30, 2018</td><td>2,543</td><td>± 1.9%</td><td>46%</td><td>48%</td><td>3%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Vox Populi Polling</td><td>October 27–30, 2018</td><td>696</td><td>± 3.7%</td><td>47%</td><td>53%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>HarrisX</td><td>October 24–30, 2018</td><td>1,400</td><td>± 2.6%</td><td>42%</td><td>44%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td></tr><tr><td>Cygnal (R)</td><td>October 27–29, 2018</td><td>495</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>47%</td><td>47%</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>CNN/SSRS</td><td>October 24–29, 2018</td><td>781 LV</td><td>± 4.3%</td><td>48%</td><td>49%</td><td>0%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>887 RV</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>45%</td><td>48%</td><td>0%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Suffolk University</td><td>October 25–28, 2018</td><td>500</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>44%</td><td>45%</td><td>1%</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>NYT Upshot/Siena College</td><td>October 23–27, 2018</td><td>737</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>43%</td><td>48%</td><td>1%</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>University of North Florida</td><td>October 23–26, 2018</td><td>1,051</td><td>± 3.0%</td><td>43%</td><td>49%</td><td><1%</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov</td><td>October 23–26, 2018</td><td>991</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>46%</td><td>47%</td><td>2%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Ipsos</td><td>October 17–25, 2018</td><td>1,069</td><td>± 3.4%</td><td>44%</td><td>50%</td><td>3%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>October 22–23, 2018</td><td>773</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>46%</td><td>51%</td><td>–</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Strategic Research Associates</td><td>October 16–23, 2018</td><td>800</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>48%</td><td>45%</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>1892 Polling (R-DeSantis)</td><td>October 20–22, 2018</td><td>2,500</td><td>± 2.0%</td><td>47%</td><td>46%</td><td>2%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Saint Leo University</td><td>October 16–22, 2018</td><td>698</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>37%</td><td>49%</td><td>4%</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>October 20–21, 2018</td><td>1,575</td><td>± 2.5%</td><td>46%</td><td>47%</td><td>2%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Florida Atlantic University</td><td>October 18–21, 2018</td><td>704</td><td>± 3.6%</td><td>37%</td><td>41%</td><td>4%</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>SurveyUSA</td><td>October 18–21, 2018</td><td>665</td><td>± 5.0%</td><td>42%</td><td>49%</td><td>1%</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac University</td><td>October 17–21, 2018</td><td>1,161</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>46%</td><td>52%</td><td>1%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D)</td><td>October 17–20, 2018</td><td>600</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>42%</td><td>48%</td><td>–</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>CNN/SSRS</td><td>October 16–20, 2018</td><td>759 LV</td><td>± 4.2%</td><td>42%</td><td>54%</td><td>0%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>872 RV</td><td>± 3.9%</td><td>42%</td><td>52%</td><td>0%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>OnMessage Inc. (R-Scott)</td><td>October 14–18, 2018</td><td>2,200</td><td>± 2.1%</td><td>48%</td><td>45%</td><td>3%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>October 15–16, 2018</td><td>1,974</td><td>± 2.2%</td><td>46%</td><td>47%</td><td>2%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Florida Southern College</td><td>October 1–5, 2018</td><td>476</td><td>± 4.5%</td><td>44%</td><td>47%</td><td>5%</td><td>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS</td><td>September 19 – October 2, 2018</td><td>522</td><td>± 6.0%</td><td>40%</td><td>48%</td><td>1%</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>September 29–30, 2018</td><td>2,313</td><td>± 2.0%</td><td>45%</td><td>47%</td><td>2%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)</td><td>September 28–30, 2018</td><td>779</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>44%</td><td>48%</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>Strategic Research Associates</td><td>September 17–30, 2018</td><td>800</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>43%</td><td>44%</td><td>–</td><td>12%</td></tr><tr><td>Mason-Dixon</td><td>September 24–27, 2018</td><td>815</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>44%</td><td>45%</td><td>3%</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac University</td><td>September 22–24, 2018</td><td>888</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>45%</td><td>54%</td><td>0%</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Cherry Communications</td><td>September 19–24, 2018</td><td>622</td><td>± 4.4%</td><td>42%</td><td>48%</td><td>2%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Marist College</td><td>September 16–20, 2018</td><td>600 LV</td><td>± 4.7%</td><td>43%</td><td>48%</td><td>1%</td><td>7%</td></tr><tr><td>829 RV</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>41%</td><td>49%</td><td>1%</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>University of North Florida</td><td>September 17–19, 2018</td><td>605</td><td>–</td><td>43%</td><td>47%</td><td><1%</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>Florida Atlantic University</td><td>September 13–16, 2018</td><td>850</td><td>± 3.3%</td><td>39%</td><td>41%</td><td>5%</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>Ipsos</td><td>September 5–12, 2018</td><td>1,000</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>44%</td><td>50%</td><td>2%</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Rasmussen Reports</td><td>September 10–11, 2018</td><td>800</td><td>± 3.5%</td><td>42%</td><td>48%</td><td>2%</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>SurveyUSA</td><td>September 7–9, 2018</td><td>634</td><td>± 5.3%</td><td>43%</td><td>47%</td><td>1%</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>Cherry Communications</td><td>September 6–9, 2018</td><td>514</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>43%</td><td>47%</td><td>2%</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>St. Pete Polls</td><td>September 5–6, 2018</td><td>2,240</td><td>± 2.1%</td><td>47%</td><td>48%</td><td>–</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac University</td><td>August 30 – September 3, 2018</td><td>785</td><td>± 4.3%</td><td>47%</td><td>50%</td><td>0%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>August 29–30, 2018</td><td>1,225</td><td>± 2.8%</td><td>45%</td><td>47%</td><td>–</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)</td><td>August 29–30, 2018</td><td>743</td><td>± 4.0%</td><td>43%</td><td>48%</td><td>–</td><td>9%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>July 13–14, 2018</td><td>1,840</td><td>± 2.3%</td><td>39%</td><td>36%</td><td>–</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>May 31 – June 15, 2018</td><td>485</td><td>± 4.5%</td><td>35%</td><td>38%</td><td>–</td><td>27%</td></tr><tr><td>Gravis Marketing</td><td>February 26 – March 19, 2018</td><td>2,212</td><td>± 2.1%</td><td>29%</td><td>33%</td><td>–</td><td>37%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Results

State senate district results

<table><thead><tr><th>Party</th><th>Candidate</th><th>Votes</th><th>%</th><th>±%</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Republican</td><td>Ron DeSantis</td><td>4,076,186</td><td>49.59%</td><td>+1.45%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Democratic</td><td>Andrew Gillum</td><td>4,043,723</td><td>49.19%</td><td>+2.12%</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Reform</td><td>Darcy Richardson</td><td>47,140</td><td>0.57%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Independent</td><td>Kyle "KC" Gibson</td><td>24,310</td><td>0.30%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Independent</td><td>Ryan Christopher Foley</td><td>14,630</td><td>0.18%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Independent</td><td>Bruce Stanley</td><td>14,505</td><td>0.18%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Write-in</td><td>67</td><td>0.00%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td>Total votes</td><td>8,220,561</td><td>100.00%</td><td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Republican hold</td></tr></tbody></table>

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville) • Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Jefferson (largest city: Monticello) • Monroe (largest city: Key West)

By congressional district

District	DeSantis	Gillum	Representative
1st	67%	31%	Matt Gaetz
2nd	66%	33%	Neal Dunn
3rd	55%	44%	Ted Yoho
4th	61%	38%	John Rutherford
5th	34%	65%	Al Lawson
6th	57%	42%	Ron DeSantis
Mike Waltz
7th	44%	55%	Stephanie Murphy
8th	58%	40%	Bill Posey
9th	44%	55%	Darren Soto
10th	36%	63%	Val Demings
11th	64%	34%	Daniel Webster
12th	56%	42%	Gus Bilirakis
13th	45%	53%	Charlie Crist
14th	40%	59%	Kathy Castor
15th	53%	46%	Dennis Ross
Ross Spano
16th	53%	45%	Vern Buchanan
17th	62%	36%	Tom Rooney
Greg Steube
18th	52%	47%	Brian Mast
19th	61%	37%	Francis Rooney
20th	17%	82%	Alcee Hastings
21st	39%	61%	Lois Frankel
22nd	41%	59%	Ted Deutch
23rd	37%	62%	Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th	16%	84%	Frederica Wilson
25th	57%	41%	Mario Díaz-Balart
26th	46%	53%	Carlos Curbelo
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
27th	44%	55%	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
Donna Shalala

Analysis

2018 Florida gubernatorial election

The close margin mandated a machine recount, which had a deadline of November 15, 2018. If the margin was below 0.25% after machine recount, Ken Detzner, the Secretary of State of Florida, would commission a manual recount of over-votes and under-votes. However, after the recount was complete, DeSantis' margin was 0.40%; therefore, he was certified the winner. Gillum conceded on November 17.

On November 10, 2022, former president Donald Trump claimed on his Truth Social page that he had prematurely ended the recount to prevent DeSantis and Senate candidate Rick Scott from losing, under the unsubstantiated belief that ballots for them were being removed. Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried has asked Attorney General Merrick Garland to investigate. Sarah Isgur, the spokeswoman of the Department of Justice from 2017 to 2019, has said that it "never happened," a position which was supported by other former Department of Justice officials. Broward County Commissioner Steven Geller agreed that no interference took place.

Voter demographics

<table><thead><tr><th>Demographic subgroup</th><th>Gillum</th><th>DeSantis</th><th>No answer</th><th>% of voters</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Gender</td></tr><tr><td>Men</td><td>41</td><td>58</td><td>1</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>Women</td><td>57</td><td>42</td><td>1</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>Age</td></tr><tr><td>18–24 years old</td><td>58</td><td>40</td><td>2</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>25–29 years old</td><td>64</td><td>34</td><td>2</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>30–39 years old</td><td>65</td><td>35</td><td>N/A</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>40–49 years old</td><td>49</td><td>50</td><td>1</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>50–64 years old</td><td>48</td><td>52</td><td>N/A</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>65 and older</td><td>43</td><td>56</td><td>1</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>Race</td></tr><tr><td>White</td><td>39</td><td>60</td><td>1</td><td>66</td></tr><tr><td>Black</td><td>86</td><td>14</td><td>N/A</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>Latino</td><td>54</td><td>44</td><td>2</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>Asian</td><td>N/A</td><td>N/A</td><td>N/A</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Other</td><td>65</td><td>33</td><td>2</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Race by gender</td></tr><tr><td>White men</td><td>31</td><td>69</td><td>N/A</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>White women</td><td>47</td><td>51</td><td>2</td><td>35</td></tr><tr><td>Black men</td><td>91</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>Black women</td><td>82</td><td>18</td><td>N/A</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>Latino men</td><td>49</td><td>49</td><td>2</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>Latina women</td><td>58</td><td>41</td><td>1</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>Others</td><td>65</td><td>34</td><td>1</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Education</td></tr><tr><td>High school or less</td><td>44</td><td>54</td><td>2</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>Some college education</td><td>51</td><td>48</td><td>1</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>Associate degree</td><td>47</td><td>51</td><td>2</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>Bachelor's degree</td><td>47</td><td>52</td><td>1</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>Advanced degree</td><td>57</td><td>42</td><td>1</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>Education and race</td></tr><tr><td>White college graduates</td><td>46</td><td>54</td><td>N/A</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>White no college degree</td><td>34</td><td>64</td><td>2</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Non-white college graduates</td><td>61</td><td>38</td><td>1</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>Non-white no college degree</td><td>73</td><td>26</td><td>1</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>Whites by education and gender</td></tr><tr><td>White women with college degrees</td><td>57</td><td>42</td><td>1</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>White women without college degrees</td><td>41</td><td>58</td><td>1</td><td>28</td></tr><tr><td>White men with college degrees</td><td>35</td><td>65</td><td>N/A</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>White men without college degrees</td><td>26</td><td>73</td><td>1</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>Non-whites</td><td>69</td><td>30</td><td>1</td><td>34</td></tr><tr><td>Income</td></tr><tr><td>Under $30,000</td><td>63</td><td>36</td><td>1</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>$30,000–49,999</td><td>49</td><td>51</td><td>N/A</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>$50,000–99,999</td><td>52</td><td>47</td><td>1</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>$100,000–199,999</td><td>50</td><td>50</td><td>N/A</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>Over $200,000</td><td>N/A</td><td>N/A</td><td>N/A</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>Party ID</td></tr><tr><td>Democrats</td><td>93</td><td>7</td><td>N/A</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>Republicans</td><td>7</td><td>92</td><td>1</td><td>38</td></tr><tr><td>Independents</td><td>54</td><td>44</td><td>2</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>Party by gender</td></tr><tr><td>Democratic men</td><td>90</td><td>10</td><td>N/A</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>Democratic women</td><td>95</td><td>5</td><td>N/A</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>Republican men</td><td>7</td><td>93</td><td>N/A</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>Republican women</td><td>7</td><td>90</td><td>3</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>Independent men</td><td>50</td><td>49</td><td>1</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>Independent women</td><td>58</td><td>39</td><td>3</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>Ideology</td></tr><tr><td>Liberals</td><td>90</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>Moderates</td><td>61</td><td>38</td><td>1</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Conservatives</td><td>13</td><td>85</td><td>2</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Marital status</td></tr><tr><td>Married</td><td>44</td><td>55</td><td>1</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>Unmarried</td><td>56</td><td>42</td><td>2</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>Gender by marital status</td></tr><tr><td>Married men</td><td>34</td><td>65</td><td>1</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>Married women</td><td>52</td><td>47</td><td>1</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>Unmarried men</td><td>46</td><td>51</td><td>3</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>Unmarried women</td><td>61</td><td>37</td><td>2</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>First-time midterm election voter</td></tr><tr><td>Yes</td><td>56</td><td>40</td><td>4</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>No</td><td>47</td><td>53</td><td>N/A</td><td>84</td></tr><tr><td>Most important issue facing the country</td></tr><tr><td>Health care</td><td>74</td><td>25</td><td>1</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>Immigration</td><td>18</td><td>80</td><td>2</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>Economy</td><td>30</td><td>69</td><td>1</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>Gun policy</td><td>77</td><td>23</td><td>N/A</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>Area type</td></tr><tr><td>Urban</td><td>57</td><td>42</td><td>1</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>Suburban</td><td>45</td><td>53</td><td>2</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>Rural</td><td>36</td><td>64</td><td>N/A</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>Source: CNN</td></tr></tbody></table>