Opinion polling on a United Ireland

This page lists opinion polling for a United Ireland also known as a New Ireland.

In Northern Ireland

The Good Friday Agreement states that the Secretary of State should call a referendum "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

In Northern Ireland

<table><thead><tr><th>Date</th><th>Polling organisation/client</th><th>Sample size</th><th>Yes</th><th>No</th><th>Undecided</th><th>Will not vote</th><th>Lead</th><th>Excluding don't know</th><th>Notes</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>14-17 February 2025</td><td>LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph</td><td>1,050</td><td>41%</td><td>48%</td><td>10%</td><td>1%</td><td>7%</td><td>46% to 54%</td><td>"If there were a referendum (i.e. a ‘Border poll’) on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the week, – How would you vote?"</td></tr><tr><td>6 September - 19 November 2024</td><td>Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2024</td><td>1,199</td><td>36%</td><td>42%</td><td>11%</td><td>5%</td><td>6%</td><td>46% to 54%</td><td>"Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?</td></tr><tr><td>August-September 2024</td><td>ARINS/Irish Times</td><td>1,000</td><td>34%</td><td>48%</td><td>14%</td><td></td><td>15%</td><td>41% to 59%</td><td>"If there was a referendum in Northern Ireland asking people whether they want Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom or to unify with the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote in that referendum?"</td></tr><tr><td>19 July - 27 August 2024</td><td>Social Market Research Belfast</td><td>2,034</td><td>33.7%</td><td>48.6%</td><td>14%</td><td>3.7%</td><td>14.9%</td><td>41% to 59%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>9–12 February 2024</td><td>LucidTalk</td><td>3,207</td><td>39%</td><td>49%</td><td>11%</td><td>1%</td><td>10%</td><td>44% to 56%</td><td>"If there was a referendum on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the week, how would you vote?"</td></tr><tr><td>November 2023</td><td>ARINS/ The Irish Times</td><td>1,019</td><td>30%</td><td>51%</td><td>15%</td><td>5%</td><td>21%</td><td>37% to 63%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>26 October – 3 November 2023</td><td>The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research</td><td>1,074</td><td>31%</td><td>49%</td><td>9%</td><td>N/A</td><td>18%</td><td>38% to 62%</td><td>"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"</td></tr><tr><td>17–30 June 2023</td><td>The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research</td><td>1,017</td><td>36.1%</td><td>47.0%</td><td>10%</td><td>6.2%</td><td>10.9%</td><td>43% to 57%</td><td>"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"</td></tr><tr><td>14 January – 7 September 2023</td><td>Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2023</td><td>1,200</td><td>35%</td><td>47%</td><td>10%</td><td>5%</td><td>12%</td><td>43% to 57%</td><td>"Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?"</td></tr><tr><td>5 September – 20 November 2022</td><td>Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey</td><td>1,405</td><td>35%</td><td>47%</td><td>10%</td><td>4%</td><td>12%</td><td>43% to 57%</td><td>"Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?"</td></tr><tr><td>17 August 2022 – 15 October 2022</td><td>ARINS/The Irish Times</td><td>1,009</td><td>27%</td><td>50%</td><td>23%</td><td>23%</td><td>35% to 65%</td><td>"If there was a referendum asking people whether they want Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom or unify with the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote in that referendum?"</td></tr><tr><td>August 2022</td><td>LucidTalk</td><td>3,384</td><td>41%</td><td>48%</td><td>11%</td><td>7%</td><td>46% to 54%</td><td>"If there was a referendum (i.e. a 'Border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.."</td></tr><tr><td>11–26 March 2022</td><td>University of Liverpool/The Irish News</td><td>1,000</td><td>30.0%</td><td>45.3%</td><td>18.7%</td><td>6%</td><td>15.3%</td><td>40% to 60%</td><td>"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"Neither Agree/Disagree</td></tr><tr><td>15–18 November 2021</td><td>Lord Ashcroft</td><td>3,301</td><td>41%</td><td>49%</td><td>8%</td><td>8%</td><td>46% to 54%</td><td>"If there was a referendum (i.e a 'border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland tomorrow, how would you vote?"</td></tr><tr><td>October–December 2021</td><td>Life & Times</td><td>1,397</td><td>34%</td><td>48%</td><td>11%</td><td>4%</td><td>14%</td><td>41% to 59%</td><td>"If there was a referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?"</td></tr><tr><td>October 2021</td><td>University of Liverpool</td><td>1,002</td><td>29.8%</td><td>58.6%</td><td>9.1%</td><td>2.5%</td><td>28.8%</td><td>33% to 67%</td><td>"If there was a border poll tomorrow, would you vote for Northern Ireland to stay as part of the United Kingdom or for a United Ireland?"</td></tr><tr><td>20–23 August 2021</td><td>LucidTalk</td><td>2,403</td><td>42%</td><td>49%</td><td>9%</td><td>0%</td><td>7%</td><td>46% to 54%</td><td>"If there was a referendum (i.e. a ‘Border poll’) on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.."</td></tr><tr><td>June 2021</td><td>Life & Times</td><td></td><td>30%</td><td>53%</td><td>9%</td><td>5%</td><td>23%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>May 2021</td><td>Belfast Telegraph/Kantar</td><td></td><td>35%</td><td>44%</td><td>21%</td><td>9%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>April 2021</td><td>LucidTalk</td><td></td><td>43%</td><td>49%</td><td>8%</td><td>6%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>February 2021</td><td>Savanta ComRes/ITV News</td><td></td><td>36%</td><td>49%</td><td>15%</td><td>13%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>January 2021</td><td>Lucid Talk/The Sunday Times</td><td></td><td>42.3%</td><td>46.8%</td><td>10.7%</td><td>4.5%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Brexit transition period ends and UK leaves the European Union, 31 December 2020</td></tr><tr><td>February 2020</td><td>LucidTalk</td><td></td><td>45%</td><td>47%</td><td>8%</td><td>2%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>February 2020</td><td>Liverpool University</td><td></td><td>29%</td><td>52%</td><td>19%</td><td>23%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>September 2019</td><td>Lord Ashcroft</td><td>1,542</td><td>46%</td><td>45%</td><td>9%</td><td>1%</td><td></td><td>"If there was a "border poll" tomorrow, how would you vote?"</td></tr><tr><td>March 2019</td><td>Irish Times/Ipsos Mori</td><td></td><td>32%</td><td>45%</td><td>23%</td><td>13%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>June 2018</td><td>Lord Ashcroft</td><td></td><td>44%</td><td>49%</td><td>7%</td><td>5%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>June 2018</td><td>NILT</td><td></td><td>22%</td><td>55%</td><td>10%</td><td>12%</td><td>33%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>May 2018</td><td>LucidTalk/YouGov/BBC</td><td></td><td>42%</td><td>45%</td><td>12.7%</td><td>0.2%</td><td>3%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>May 2018</td><td>ICM</td><td></td><td>21%</td><td>50%</td><td>18.9%</td><td>9.7%</td><td>29%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>October 2017</td><td>LucidTalk</td><td></td><td>34%</td><td>55%</td><td>9.8%</td><td>1.1%</td><td>21%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>July 2017</td><td>ESRC</td><td></td><td>27%</td><td>52%</td><td>21%</td><td>25%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>August 2016</td><td>Ipsos Mori</td><td></td><td>22%</td><td>63%</td><td>13%</td><td>2%</td><td>41%</td><td></td><td>Voters aged 18+</td></tr><tr><td>Brexit referendum, 23 June 2016</td></tr><tr><td>Scottish independence referendum, 18 September 2014</td></tr><tr><td>January 2013</td><td>Spotlight</td><td></td><td>17%</td><td>65%</td><td>5%</td><td>12%</td><td>48%</td><td></td><td>Voters aged 18+</td></tr><tr><td>November 2003</td><td>Millward Brown Ulster</td><td>1058</td><td>26%</td><td>61%</td><td>13%</td><td>35%</td><td></td><td>"Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)</td></tr><tr><td>October-January 2002</td><td>NI Life and Times Survey</td><td>1800</td><td>27%</td><td>54%</td><td>10%</td><td>6%</td><td>27%</td><td></td><td>"Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?"</td></tr><tr><td>May 2001</td><td>Millward Brown Ulster</td><td></td><td>27%</td><td>58%</td><td>15%</td><td>31%</td><td></td><td>"Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)</td></tr><tr><td>June 1998</td><td>Millward Brown Ulster</td><td></td><td>25%</td><td>63%</td><td>12%</td><td>38%</td><td></td><td>"Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)</td></tr><tr><td>Belfast Good Friday Agreement is signed, 10 April 1998</td></tr></tbody></table>

Opinion polling on a United Ireland